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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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That's the difference between weenies and true weather enthusiasts. The weenies want highly irrational and highly unlikely snow bombs in their backyard while the enthusiasts and some mets actually take the time to appreciate and be in awe at such a powerful and highly anomalous storm.

It's a double edge sword. Yes I'm looking at some of the forecast over the open seas thinking "wow, 100 knt winds and a -6 Standard deviation pressure with a non tropical system". And at the same time part of me feels like my team just lost the Super Bowl on a field goal going "wide right". Great season yes, but we just missed on the "big one"

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It's a double edge sword. Yes I'm looking at some of the forecast over the open seas thinking "wow, 100 knt winds and a -6 Standard deviation pressure with a non tropical system". And at the same time part of me feels like my team just lost the Super Bowl on a field goal going "wide right". Great season yes, but we just missed on the "big one"

Good analogy. Great season, but I often wonder what could of been with this storm if it took an optimum track for us. My guess is that it would of been a DC to Boston blizzard with snow amounts of 1 to 3 feet from south to north.

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This could have been an epic blizzard for us. Payback for march 2001.

You didn't want it enough. It wanted to listen to you, and shift west, but you didn't believe hard enough. It's missing us to the east, and it's all your fault.

I hope you can sleep at night, denying all of us of our snow.

;)

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Here was my forecast for this storm for Northern New Jersey that I posted to my blog 10 days ago....   I wish I had stuck with that forecast...

 

Saturday, March 15th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

 
Then the next storm that is likely to bring someone along the East Coast another significant snowstorm will start developing along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday.  This storm will then start to move northeast in our direction.  Of course the big question is whether this storm will make it far enough north to affect our area. Honestly, the way these storms have have been going for the past month, if you have friends or relatives down in Virginia, you might as well just tell them now that they will be getting another big snowstorm next Tuesday.  Of course I am just kidding, there is really no way to be certain of exactly where this storm will go this far out, but often history does repeat itself. 

 

Saturday, March 15th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

I can’t yet declare winter over as there is a strong signal for another storm along the East Coast next Tuesday, with lots of cold air in place.  This storm will likely bring someone along the East Coast another chance of a significant snowstorm.  If you had to bet though, the way these have been working out lately, it will find a way to hit Virginia again. 

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1234abc, I think the reason many jumped on board the "coming NW" train was because they figured that those areas could not get yet another march snowstorm. Also, the pattern is sometimes look at as something that gradually comes north to bring on spring, and that subsequent storms will follow that north trend until they come further and further north. Not true though, as we've learned. The same areas can continue to get hit and storms can continue to be suppressed until a sudden "shock to the system", or pattern change

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1234abc, I think the reason many jumped on board the "coming NW" train was because they figured that those areas could not get yet another march snowstorm. Also, the pattern is sometimes look at as something that gradually comes north to bring on spring, and that subsequent storms will follow that north trend until they come further and further north. Not true though, as we've learned. The same areas can continue to get hit and storms can continue to be suppressed until a sudden "shock to the system", or pattern change

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Very true and very well put. 

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And Here is a Post I Made 9 Days Ago About This Storm

 
Click on the date below or just read below.  I made this post 9 days ago.   
 
Sunday, March 16th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion
The next storm to watch will be a developing low along the Gulf Coast next Monday.  This storm will then turn northeast at the same time the Polar Vortex once again makes a visit to Southeastern Canada.  This will bring us a chance for snow next Tuesday, but honestly, the way things have worked this month, if you have friends in Virginia, I would just tell them now they have a good chance at a snowstorm next Tuesday, and expect nothing more than flurries here.  Of course, I am kidding, there is no way to tell exactly where this storm will end up that far in advance, but it would not surprise me if it finds a way to miss us again.
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Of course... once Spring approaches.

 

post-14521-1395598669_thumb.png

The funniest thing about this is that snow is not out of the question in April and I heard HM in the mid atlantic forum mention this. Of course the question will be whether it will be cold enough by then. Of course knowing our luck we'll get the perfect coastal storm but it'll be like 33-34 and rain. 

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The funniest thing about this is that snow is not out of the question in April and I heard HM in the mid atlantic forum mention this. Of course the question will be whether it will be cold enough by then. Of course knowing our luck we'll get the perfect coastal storm but it'll be like 33-34 and rain. 

 

If it snows in April then the sun angle would instantly vaporize the snow on contact with the ground. 

 

 

 

 

 

JK   :devilsmiley:

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Time to change the avatar....

 

Already did that. :underthewx:

You didn't want it enough. It wanted to listen to you, and shift west, but you didn't believe hard enough. It's missing us to the east, and it's all your fault.

I hope you can sleep at night, denying all of us of our snow.

;)

 

Now I can, since winter is over. Just to think I stayed up until 3 am the other night when the Euro had 6-12 inches nearby :weenie::cry:

If it snows in April then the sun angle would instantly vaporize the snow on contact with the ground. 

 

 

 

 

 

JK   :devilsmiley:

I wouldn't be shocked if we do get another storm in April ( just to see the MidAtlantic get hit again)

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If it wasn't for the time of year, I'd be hyping the crap out of 4/5-4/10 (Matt's window). The problem, besides it being April, will be the tendency for the Plains/W-C warmth to limit the cold air coming down. Otherwise, the NAO / Atlantic become favorable for another coastal storm threat then.

Here's the good news for you: typically, El Nino-type forcing promotes a ridge in the means over the Midwest-Northeast as we move deeper into spring. Eventually, that ridge is going to win; but, we have a few hiccups to get through, both with the tropical forcing itself and the NAO.

 

 

 

 

Huge GEFS support for this window. Everything is there for a threat, not using Analogs:

1. Retrograding helps boost ridge in West

2. NAO signal peaks early April and retrogrades with 50-50 low / cyclonic wave breaking in Atlantic.

3. Split stratosphere supports NAO and holds cold air source in Canada.

I love this potential, I just hate the date.

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It's great looking at that heavy band south of LI slowly building northwest.  It's exactly the tease the models indicated it would be.  Not a flake, snizzle, or even virga here.  Time for bed.

I should've stuck to my initial guns and said no accumulating snow at Central Park. I thought they might sneak in with 0.1" or something so I went with 0.5". Pretty much from Sunday on I thought this would be an inch or less. But it just wouldn't be March 2014 without Cape May getting another warning criteria snow event.

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