WintersGrasp Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL a complete reversal of fortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL a complete reversal of fortunate Without a block in place, we won't have a widespread winter storm here this winter. Even with blocking, look at how hard it seems to be to make something happen for the whole area, because of the crazy progressive pattern. This will become an I-90 winter very soon if this stays around. We need for some warming to appear in the equatorial Pacific, and a SSW episode to force some higher heights where we need them around the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If you wana see Variance in Modeling the difference between a 12z run and 0z run on Euro are as follows . At 12z 12 inches by 0z turned to 3 on storm one , 10 below became 10 above , and a second shot at a snowstorm 3 days later became this If verified 50-60 knot gusts would be widespread. A cutter with possible damaging wind, and temps from 55-60 F to 10-15 F in a few hours. Can this event somehow adjust SE and somehow become a HECS for 1/6/2014 ? We wasted time on the 1/2-3 threat, which is weaker supported for big impact on NYC area. Will need the earplugs to keep ears from popping FROM pressure changes not snowblower noise abatement. What a snowjob we are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If verified 50-60 knot gusts would be widespread,. A cutter with possible damaging wind, and temps from 55-60 F to 10-15 F in a few hours. Can his event somehow adjust and somehow become a HECS, while we wasted time on the 1/2-3 threat, which is weaker supported. Willneeed the earplugs to keep ears from popping not snowblower noise abatement. @ 156 hours ? it has the same probabiltiy as becoming sunny and 50 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Better look than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The bigger storm is coming Jan 5 - 7 in NYC Metro Unfortunately it looks to be mainly liquid which will wash the few inches we get later this week away as temps approach 50 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Great winter morning here. Very cold, with a nice snowfall on the way, which will be followed by extreme cold, and then more weather. Getting our monies worth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The bigger storm is coming Jan 5 - 7 in NYC Metro Unfortunately it looks to be mainly liquid which will wash the few inches we get later this week away as temps approach 50 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif I agree the much bigger storm is Mon , However I think the European is dragging its heels with the PV that's coming in, and its allowing this to buckle too far West . ithink the system is of the coast or close too it , don't think it runs up thru Scranton I like the GFS which is further East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z nam start time paul? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z nam start time paul? around 915/930 am EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z nam start time paul?845 am to be precise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 well once again without any sort of moderation the entire NYC forum is a mess - there is more banter in those model threads then in here - especially since the models are not cooperating today with some folks snow fantasies - question is who is sgoing to step up to the plate and fix it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 well once again without any sort of moderation the entire NYC forum is a mess - there is more banter in those model threads then in here - especially since the models are not cooperating today with some folks snow fantasies - question is who is sgoing to step up to the plate and fix it I think people worry to much about it. I enjoy them all and really don't know what most of you folks are talking about model-wise, but I do like reading about it and as a result know a lot more than the average person, who looks at the morning news( if that). As a result I don't feel the need to run out and clean the shelves of bread and milk just because Lonnie Quinn mentioned possible snow, because I already have a good idea of what's coming from reading here, along with NOAA. It must be irritating for some of you, I get that. But there are those of us here who like to read the threads with warts and all. Sometimes they are quite funny. And you can look like the go-to guy at work when it comes to weather. I can't offer much other than observation and a very good memory of NJ weather stretching back over 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Without a block in place, we won't have a widespread winter storm here this winter. Even with blocking, look at how hard it seems to be to make something happen for the whole area, because of the crazy progressive pattern. This will become an I-90 winter very soon if this stays around. We need for some warming to appear in the equatorial Pacific, and a SSW episode to force some higher heights where we need them around the pole. You take what you can get and none of those changes are going to happen anytime soon, if at all this season. At least there are chances because of widespread cold around unlike a zonal pacific pattern where we just torch and torch with no chance of snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbrans Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just want to register a vote for one thread per storm (or one plus a new thread if it gets too long). It's not hard to go back some pages if you want to see earlier models. Right now the discussion is all over the place and it's really confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's really not hard to post models in the model thread and discussion in the discussion thread. The problems arise when people can't follow the directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You know what grinds my gears? The Monday warmup. After all of this snowfall, there's a moderate possibility of the snow melting on Monday. Bad memories of the Winters of the late 90s are flooding in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How about some snow squalls this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thats a potential ICE storm NW at 138 , 850`s plus 5 surface in the upper 20`s just away from the coast . Next one to watch after Thrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You know what grinds my gears? The Monday warmup. After all of this snowfall, there's a moderate possibility of the snow melting on Monday. Bad memories of the Winters of the late 90s are flooding in my mind. I remember a decent storm in Feb 93, which was maybe 6-9 inches ( and that was a good storm; we rarely saw monsters and the last big one before that was Feb 83 blizzard ) which mostly melted the next day as temps soared. Storm hit on a Sunday. and schools opened the next day as it was forecast to go into the high 40's or even 50's. We did get the march 93 superslop with several inches of ice caked onto 11 inches of snow and sleet that year, also the biggest storm in a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thats a potential ICE storm NW at 138 , 850`s plus 5 surface in the upper 20`s just away from the coast . Next one to watch after Thrs . Let's hope not. My in laws in Maine had a horrible time with the ice storm up there; I don't want anyone dealing with ice. No fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Let's hope not. My in laws in Maine had a horrible time with the ice storm up there; I don't want anyone dealing with ice. No fun at all. Think thats storms off the coast next week . LR a goof , Good handle weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS still 0 CPK sat AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You know what grinds my gears? The Monday warmup. After all of this snowfall, there's a moderate possibility of the snow melting on Monday. Bad memories of the Winters of the late 90s are flooding in my mind. We don't get that much rain and the warmup is brief. By Monday night we're in the deep freeze again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You take what you can get and none of those changes are going to happen anytime soon, if at all this season. At least there are chances because of widespread cold around unlike a zonal pacific pattern where we just torch and torch with no chance of snow at all. I lived thru 94 and while it was epic, most of the storms were not all snow and none were huge, other than the back to back Feb storms, and one of those mixed as well. I believe also that most of it all melted with a soaking warm storm a few days later. We continued with slop storms until the end of march; the last being a 6 inch sleet fest which was nearly impossible to shovel. Someof you have referred to that year as having similar signs to this one; keep in mind that 94 also came after a decade of mild winters with a handful of big storms ( 82, 83, 87 ) and no one was really ready for it; in fact, the Star Ledger had run a piece a few years back, 91 I think, asking whatever happened to winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 well once again without any sort of moderation the entire NYC forum is a mess - there is more banter in those model threads then in here - especially since the models are not cooperating today with some folks snow fantasies - question is who is sgoing to step up to the plate and fix it Why are you posting an extended discussion in the 12z model run thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS sees 0 Tues AM in CPK again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS sees 0 Tues AM in CPK again . Any snow pack we might have will thin out by then. Might still have an inch or two. Winds are NW on GFS for Tuesday which is unfavorable for NYC but 850's are cold around -20C. I still think we end up colder Sat AM than Tues AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS sees 0 Tues AM in CPK again . I only see high single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Think thats storms off the coast next week . LR a goof , Good handle weekend . Think that storm stays off the coast and the cold air will be stronger than currently progged. We'll see as we go forward. Monday storm has more legs than this one for the coast and inland more than this one as far as bigger snowfall. Even so looks like thursday another chance for another storm. If only our flow was slower we'd really be in business with some blocking established as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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