NYY_2 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I know models say otherwise, but something about this setup has some unknowns not yet appreciated that will force this storm more north than east. Just putting it out there. Noted, we shall see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ill admit if Im completely out of my rocker if this thing is a miss, but the beauty of all of this is that we really do not know what is going to happen despite guidance, which I respect. Guidance is based on hard science which gives confidence on a potential solution, but mother nature can still make up her own mind sometimes for reasons not quite yet understood despite our technology. It is why meteorology is so fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Still looks like a close graze, and could easily move a bit east on the next run. I don't feel confident about a big hit. Did someone hack his account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Someone care to elaborate as to what an inverted trough is and the effects of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 I want everyone to kiss my butt for not giving up if the storm comes west today. try to make a bet with your buddy Forky since he is totally against this storm - see if he will bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Cruel month thus far for the NYC area...2 storms missing the area to the south, one storm missing to the north, and one potentially missing to the east next week. Great winter but this past month has left a sour taste in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I want everyone to kiss my butt for not giving up if the storm comes west today. someone doesn't understand probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 someone doesn't understand probability I hate your avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 all models shifting east, so much for the superbomb....oh well, maybe next year. Bring on Sping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 all models shifting east, so much for the superbomb....oh well, maybe next year. Bring on Sping! Until the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Cruel month thus far for the NYC area...2 storms missing the area to the south, one storm missing to the north, and one potentially missing to the east next week. Great winter but this past month has left a sour taste in my mouth. I would've rathered a flip to spring a month ago then have all these storms to track and nothing to show for it. My call of .7" for the month may bust too high but maybe we can squeeze out one final inch on Tuesday which will be gone by 10am Wednesday anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Cruel month thus far for the NYC area...2 storms missing the area to the south, one storm missing to the north, and one potentially missing to the east next week. Great winter but this past month has left a sour taste in my mouth. Very cruel. Very sour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Until the Euro comes out. losing the GGEM is a bad sign. A bad sign also-the JMA never being on board...that model's usually amped with everything and euro was a scrape anyway for all but eastern sections...another 50 miles east and poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Until the Euro comes out. The problem is , you have no support . As much as I love the Euro , don`t expect some huge shift . And if you get one - 25 - 50 miles , it could easily be east with the rest of the 12z suite . Look at the guidance as a whole bro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The problem is , you have no support . As much as I love the Euro , don`t expect some huge shift . And if you get one - 25 - 50 miles , it could easily be east with the rest of the 12z suite . Look at the guidance as a whole bro . Wasting your breath..dude has been blindly ignoring model trends for 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Cruel month thus far for the NYC area...2 storms missing the area to the south, one storm missing to the north, and one potentially missing to the east next week. Great winter but this past month has left a sour taste in my mouth. Just for how this March panned out, I will lower my grade for Winter 2013-2014 from B to B-. If we were not below-normal temp-wise this month, I would have given it a C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wasting your breath..dude has been blindly ignoring model trends for 5 years. He`s stuck in a Dec 2010 time warp . Thinks there`s gona be an ah ha moment with every EC system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice, I'm a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 all models shifting east, so much for the superbomb....oh well, maybe next year. Bring on Sping! The Euro ensembles have had the same exact position since the storm was 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 0-5 this month if this storm misses. Just brutal. Could have broken the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I would've rathered a flip to spring a month ago then have all these storms to track and nothing to show for it. My call of .7" for the month may bust too high but maybe we can squeeze out one final inch on Tuesday which will be gone by 10am Wednesday anyway lol Not gonna lie, I thought you were crazy when you made that .7 call back in the beginning of the month lol. It seemed as tho we were entering a "historic" period for the area. However the NYC area is very small compared to the east coast, a lot of other places have cashed in this past month. So it was good for them, bad for the immediate area. This winter def balanced things out and was kind to many places with snowfall. Can't deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The Euro ensembles have had the same exact position since the storm was 7 days away. 1925316_674101712646641_355156614_n.jpg Any thoughts on the fact that the models have been so consistent with this storm compared to many others this winter where they weren't consistent until right before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not gonna lie, I thought you were crazy when you made that .7 call back in the beginning of the month lol. It seemed as tho we were entering a "historic" period for the area. However the NYC area is very small compared to the east coast, a lot of other places have cashed in this past month. So it was good for them, bad for the immediate area. This winter def balanced things out and was kind to many places with snowfall. Can't deny that. I remember people insisting March 2010 would be epic after a thaw but instead it flipped to spring. This time we got teased and teased and without the warmup. I can't imagine if this happened after a bad January/February too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 watch we get snow in May when nobody expects it......or wants it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 watch we get snow in May when nobody expects it......or wants it..... May no..April possibly..1990 had snow 3 weeks after hitting the mid 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I remember people insisting March 2010 would be epic after a thaw but instead it flipped to spring. This time we got teased and teased and without the warmup. I can't imagine if this happened after a bad January/February too Yeah I remember that. Def would of preferred march 2010 over this march. March 2011 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 With how consistent and similar the models have been thus far with this storm, I would consider that in itself an anomaly in comparison to model performance this past winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 i remember getting snow.....a lot of it.....on Mothers Day in the late 70s when I was a tot...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I think NYC has had a T in May...possibly back in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I want snow in August. Summer sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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