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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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Per the HPC's extended-range synoptic discussion:

 

THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEHIGHLIGHTED BY A CNTRL-ERN CONUS COLD SURGE AND RAPID/DEEP WRNATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT BOTH SUFFICIENTLY EXTREME FOR LATE MARCH TOBE OBSERVED TYPICALLY ONLY ONCE EVERY 10-20 YEARS

For now, I'm going to go with what seems like a pretty solid model consensus for a clear miss to the east. That will sting not only because it likely represents our very last shot at a snowstorm for the next ~35 weeks, but because the combined cold/cyclogenesis apparently represents a 1-in-up-to-20-year return rate for this time of year. Ouch. :(

 

(Cue drive-by "seek help" remarks by the self-righteous)

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Per the HPC's extended-range synoptic discussion:

 

For now, I'm going to go with what seems like a pretty solid model consensus for a clear miss to the east. That will sting not only because it likely represents our very last shot at a snowstorm for the next ~35 weeks, but because the combined cold/cyclogenesis apparently represents a 1-in-up-to-20-year return rate for this time of year. Ouch. :(

 

(Cue drive-by "seek help" remarks by the self-righteous)

We have had plenty of severe winter events in the past 10 years- Boxing Day, 1/27/11, 2/8/13, 2/25/10, and so on. I don't think we'll have to wait 20 more years for another widespread 1-2 foot snowstorm given our run of severe winter storms in recent years.

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We have had plenty of severe winter events in the past 10 years- Boxing Day, 1/27/11, 2/8/13, 2/25/10, and so on. I don't think we'll have to wait 20 more years for another widespread 1-2 foot snowstorm given our run of severe winter storms in recent years.

Nah, I'm not concerned about that. I had my big ticket event this year. Just would be been almost euphoric to experience such a cold and substantial event so late in the season. I still think it'll be fascinating to watch, honestly... should be some borderline pornographic satellite imagery and upper level analysis charts even if the storm ends up well offshore. Would be nice to plop those screenshots in the same folder as the pictures of snow from the same storm, though. :)

 

Maybe I'm writing it off a bit too early, but hey, tempered expectations are a good thing.

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Does anyone else have a sneaky suspicion that April may throw us a snowy surprise?

I think it depends how long the inevitable warm-up lasts. Some of the forecasters seem to think it'll be relatively transient and may be followed by more cold shots, but obviously every day is precious at this point. If we can kill the SE ridge prematurely, I could see a couple wet storms with elevation/latitude benefits.

 

I'm still waiting on my .5" to cross the 60" threshold. I'll give it until Tax Day before I start doing some systematic error corrections and revise my seasonal total. ;)

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It's really annoying when the same two or three people post multiple (dozen?) times each day that "it's still early, things could change!" in response to every model frame and snippet of info that is posted. There's no shame in hanging back and reading/learning... I did it for years and still do unless I know my comment or question is largely original.

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It's really annoying when the same two or three people post multiple (dozen?) times each day that "it's still early, things could change!" in response to every model frame and snippet of info that is posted. There's no shame in hanging back and reading/learning... I did it for years and still do unless I know my comment or question is largely original.

I merely do it to the members that are literally sounding like they are giving up WAY too early. this season has made its living almost purely on last minute inside 72 hour changes. seems to me some of the members have a very short memory in here

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It's really annoying when the same two or three people post multiple (dozen?) times each day that "it's still early, things could change!" in response to every model frame and snippet of info that is posted. There's no shame in hanging back and reading/learning... I did it for years and still do unless I know my comment or question is largely original.

agree 100 %

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