SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Except that I didn't say that, and it still is highly improbable to get such snow on the coastal plain in mid-late March. That it happened ONCE doesn't change that. I guess we should expect left-turn 940mb hurricanes to slam into Jersey every other year? Normally this applies when even a perfect coastal storm track gives the coastal plain rain and areas well N&W snow. That is the typical climatology of storms in late March and that is what is far more common than anything else. In this case however, if you have a perfect coastal storm track, everyone will snow so normal climate rules for this March don't apply. So it really has been a case of the storms just simply missing us to the south this month otherwise we would be breaking March snowfall records. The same rules apply to the next storm. If it were to take a perfect track then all of us would snow and that is what makes this March so anomalous to past March's. It's the fact that we're not even discussing rain vs. snow, we're discussing storm track whether it's snow or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We all know what your intentions were. You happened to get lucky that the storm missed to our south. You were right for the wrong reason. My intention was to point out that, probabilistically speaking, snowfall of the type with which many were on board here is highly uncommon. If you want to disagree, go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Normally this applies when even a perfect coastal storm track gives the coastal plain rain and areas well N&W snow. That is the typical climatology of storms in late March and that is what is far more common than anything else. In this case however, if you have a perfect coastal storm track, everyone will snow so normal climate rules for this March don't apply. So it really has been a case of the storms just simply missing us to the south this month otherwise we would be breaking March snowfall records. The same rules apply to the next storm. If it were to take a perfect track then all of us would snow and that is what makes this March so anomalous to past March's. It's the fact that we're not even discussing rain vs. snow, we're discussing storm track whether it's snow or nothing. By this time of year, EVERYTHING has to be perfect. Usually things don't line up like that, so that's why we rarely see significant snows around here by this point. You'd think this would be pretty obvious to people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 By this time of year, EVERYTHING has to be perfect. Usually things don't line up like that, so that's why we rarely see significant snows around here by this point. You'd think this would be pretty obvious to people... Well the storm track for sure has to be pretty close to perfect, but this can apply to Dec, Jan, and Feb as well. March is obviously more difficult because of the PV, which can be both a blessing or a curse this time of year. You need the PV for cold but it can't be overwhelming or the storm will become suppressed. Other factors like the sun angle and rising averages also play a role but to a lesser extent usually through the 15th before becoming increasingly important. This March we do have a vast amount of cold air present thanks to the PV so the most important thing is the storm track. This is definitely as good as it gets for the mid-atlantic for the month of March. The PV is in play but the storm track is not a detriment and they are far enough south to get the benefit of the anomalous cold and the warm, moist air overriding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GGEM drags this storm NW, essentially getting tugged back west by the polar energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Should i delete my post so i dont send you into a panic attack about the rules? NO here is a link too show previous posts by this character - you are what is called an agitator - very few of yours posts are original or weather related with an educated opinion about storms model runs etc. etc. - all you do is try to start crap with people trying to control what and how they say things or little snide remarks to cause a confrontation http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/user/75-bxengine/ click on posts in that link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 NO here is a link too show previous posts by this character - you are what is called an aggitator - very few of yours posts are original or weather related with an educated opinion about storms model runs etc. etc. - all you do is try to start crap with people trying to control what and how they say things or little snide remarks to cause a confrontation http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/user/75-bxengine/ click on posts in that link 1 g in agitator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nice puffy clouds I'm the sky today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 1 g in agitator. I see you are in prime form today ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I see you are in prime form today ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I tried asking in the storm threat page, but that may have been the wrong thread. I've been reading about the recent SSW event, that took place over the last 10 days. Some models seem to indicate this will split the Polar Vortex. I'm curious about the influence this will have on any low emerging from the STJ. My basic understanding is that without any evidence of blocking, the PV will overwhelm the lows ability to come up the coast. Just trying to gage insight. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 I tried asking in the storm threat page, but that may have been the wrong thread. I've been reading about the recent SSW event, that took place over the last 10 days. Some models seem to indicate this will split the Polar Vortex. I'm curious about the influence this will have on any low emerging from the STJ. My basic understanding is that without any evidence of blocking, the PV will overwhelm the lows ability to come up the coast. Just trying to gage insight. Thanks. I think BXEngine would be the best person to answer this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Happy Astronomical Spring you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think BXEngine would be the best person to answer this 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Regarding post made about the Blizzard of 1978….. It was not forecasted days in advance... (storm started late Sunday early Monday) Friday's models came in and it showed a cutoff low forming off the carolinas…. At this point Alan Kasper said it would give us 6", and Boston a major open….He was excited and surprised…. The next day the models pulled the low closer, and the rest was history….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Does The Monty Hall Door Number 3 (MHDN3) model use 4DVAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The general public reaction if we got a MECS or possibly HECS (esp due to time of year) would be hilarious to the weather enthusiast. The general public has no clue to how close we potentially are to seeing something we have never seen this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The public will go nuts thinking spring is here especially by Saturday with 60s only to face a brutal reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The public will go nuts thinking spring is here especially by Saturday with 60s only to face a brutal reality. Face brutal reality IF the wednesday storm does come to fruition. IMO the progressive pattern and the lack of any blocking in the atlantic is not reallt giving me a warm fuzzy feeling with this one TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Does The Monty Hall Door Number 3 (MHDN3) model use 4DVAR? Yes, same as the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is ocean city MD looking like with this upcoming storm. We have a 20 man golf trip starting Wednesday there, and we're wondering how likely it is that a big storm will hit there at this point. Does it look like snow is possible on the coast down there? Thanks for any IMO's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is ocean city MD looking like with this upcoming storm. We have a 20 man golf trip starting Wednesday there, and we're wondering how likely it is that a big storm will hit there at this point. Does it look like snow is possible on the coast down there? Thanks for any IMO's. Should be rain and gone by Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Face brutal reality IF the wednesday storm does come to fruition. IMO the progressive pattern and the lack of any blocking in the atlantic is not reallt giving me a warm fuzzy feeling with this one TBH Were you ever excited about any storms this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The public will go nuts thinking spring is here especially by Saturday with 60s only to face a brutal reality. What brutal reality? That after a cold shot it warms up again? Seek help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What brutal reality? That after a cold shot it warms up again? Seek help.what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Were you ever excited about any storms this season? YES I WAS! Dont be lambasting me anthony , at this point of the season 60's and 70's are just as equally impressive to me as a HECS ( weenies assault me ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 what? Yes, it will be warming up. Happens every spring! It's borderline disturbing that some on here almost relish in seeing the masses deal with unseasonable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What brutal reality? That after a cold shot it warms up again? Seek help. I get the impression you never talk to anyone or live in your own little world. Go out and take a random of poll of 20 people and see what they say. Just about everyone in the general public is dreading even the idea of more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I get the impression you never talk to anyone or live in your own little world. Go out and take a random of poll of 20 people and see what they say. Just about everyone in the general public is dreading even the idea of more snow. Obviously, but it's in the 50s a couple days after the potential snow. People have short memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yes, it will be warming up. Happens every spring! It's borderline disturbing that some on here almost relish in seeing the masses deal with unseasonable weather. I think he was referring to any possible winter storm next week to dampen hopes for spring's arrival after a couple warm days. If we do get a significant winter storm, people will be insufferable—he's right. Not sure what there is to debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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