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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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It is obvious you are an intelligent man.  Can you just be a little more constructive with your posts?  We would like to hear what you have to say.  And maybe you don't want to hear what I have to say or don't care as you say, but CNBC apparently did care because they wanted to put me on national television once for forecasting one of these blizzards.  So...

 

Excuse me for looking in and being a poster in another region, but this isn't exactly a back-up statement for much.

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You do realize that its a field where you are allotted to be wrong 50% of the time and still get paid? Weather forecasters (pros) are more often wrong then they are correct...and they have no accountability to anyone either. 

 

I don't think this is true.  I'd like to think I've had a better than 50% batting average when it comes to forecasting back home... and I've been doing that for free ;)

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*****ATTENTION EARTHLIGHT/SICKMAN*****

 

PLEASE GIVE US AN EXPLANATION AS TO WHY FORKY IS PERMITTED TO CONSTANTLY PUT DOWN POSTERS, GIVE PERSONAL ATTACKS, TROLL CONSTANTLY AND TALK DOWN TO PEOPLE WITH SEEMINGLY NO CONSEQUENCES!!!

 

Is this like some NWS Special statement?

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I don't think this is true. I'd like to think I've had a better than 50% batting average when it comes to forecasting back home... and I've been doing that for free ;)

I never understood that stat. What does it mean to be wrong 50% of the time?...if I say sunny and 40 and it ends up PCldy and 39 is that wrong?

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I don't think this is true.  I'd like to think I've had a better than 50% batting average when it comes to forecasting back home... and I've been doing that for free ;)

Well I will give you an example... 

 

This last storm that went to our south ...was forecasted to bring a coating to an inch of snow to my area.. Meanwhile I known for days that we were not going to see any snow from that system... we might have seen a flurry... Its not a knock down its just a fact that they are more often wrong then they are correct...

 

The storm that dropped 19.4 inches across my area was underforecasted and they had to keep playing catch up... Where five days in advance i was telling the people that come to me for the weather that we were getting 12-20 inches...

 

Its not an exact science so this is the reason for the often failed forecasts ... but at the same time I think they could be better then what they are..

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Euro ensemble mean looks pretty frigging awesome at 186-198 hrs. It take a 1004 mb low to a point south of the Benchmark and at 198 hrs, it still has it snowing here with a 1000 mb low just east of the Benchmark.

 

Low tracks from Hatteras at 180 hrs to the Benchmark at 198 hrs, deepening while doing so, with heavy snow here.

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climo this month is pretty much as close as you can get to being flushed down the toilet. for all intents and purposes we are in an extended February pretty much from what we've experienced and are experiencing currently

I  wouldn`t care if it was Jan 15th  - Its day 8 - its noise .  The models have been bundling energy on the E C for the last 3 weeks and outside of 1 - they broke down and came S .  I can`t get caught up in OP runs 192 hours out . J M O

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