famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I just dot understand why they make such a short period of time (last 30 years) the 'long time average'. Over time that will constantly make the long term average a moving target, when it should be nearly stationary. All that time period is picking up is a piece of a cycle. The 70-00 average was like 22" The 90-20 average could be 32" While the real answer is 29" (largest amount of data you have) Well, for one thing, comparatively, each city has a different period of record, so if you compare one city's full period-of-record average to another, you aren't comparing apples to apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Euro phases the two streams, nice low pressure system offshore off the Carolina coast with moisture from Florida to the lakes. Nice to see the storm signal remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z Euro go boom at 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z Euro comes pretty darn close to producing my big time storm for us next Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. 988 mb just south of Eastern Long Island at 192 hrs. Deepens it to 972 mb over Cape Cod at 198 hrs. There you go. Major effects miss us just to the east, but anyway... Over 1 inch qpf in most locations. Major blizzard for New England, Connecticut, Eastern Long Island. Deepens to 956 mb in the Gulf of Maine at 204 hrs. with wrap around all the way down to eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We get destroyed at hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If the shortwave dives down a little farther SW and there's more ridging, my god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Euro phases in just a little late for us, a bit sooner and boom. As it is it absolutely destroys areas just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This was a late phase on this run. A little more earlier and OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 it's rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We get destroyed at hour 192 Even 1 week out and you guys are disagreeing?LOL . one says destroyed and the other says just misses us? In any case. there is a storm signal. thats all that matters till the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z Euro comes pretty darn close to producing my big time storm for us next Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. 988 mb just south of Eastern Long Island at 192 hrs. Deepens it to 972 mb over Cape Cod at 198 hrs. There you go. Major effects miss us just to the east, but anyway... We get destroyed at hour 192 I think this is applicable to this month, as far as snow. A wise man once told me: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on Metfan. He actually said that. I don't know how he knew Anthony, but it blew my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 it's rain Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 you never learn anything It's not even worth responding at this point. At least a new thread hasn't been created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I think this is applicable to this month, as far as snow. A wise man once told me: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on Metfan. He actually said that. I don't know how he knew Anthony, but it blew my mind. 0-4 this month. Don't feel like going 0-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 it's rain Not on the soundings it isn't. Not even close. But who cares about those details. Storm is likely another fantasy euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's not even worth responding at this point. At least a new thread hasn't been created. If a new thread gets started before Friday, I'm blowing the threadstarter's head off with a bazooka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Euro phases in just a little late for us, a bit sooner and boom. As it is it absolutely destroys areas just to the north. So in a week we'll be congratulating Myrtle Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 it's rain No, that is total BS! That is snow. Ground temps are above freezing taken verbatim, but upper air temps are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I know someone out there is thinking 'let me start that thread .... let me start that thread ... it is only 8 days' PLEASE ....... DON'T!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Who gives a freakin crap if it's rain or snow, it has a storm. PERIOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 No, that is total BS! That is snow. Ground temps are above freezing taken verbatim, but upper air temps are good. Ground temps are 32-33 degrees at those specific 6 hour increments. I bet in between hours 186 and 192, the surface temps are well below 32 under the heavy bands of snow. But that is way too much detail for a day 8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Not on the soundings it isn't. Not even close. But who cares about those details. Storm is likely another fantasy euro solution. Like the last three fantasy storms, the one that pummeled Northern New England, and the two that brought significant snow to areas south of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If a new thread gets started before Friday, I'm blowing the threadstarter's head off with a bazooka. +10000000000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 No one should start a thread until the day before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 No, that is total BS! That is snow. Ground temps are above freezing taken verbatim, but upper air temps are good. If we're going to seriously start bickering over the temps on a Euro run at day 8... Have we all seriously learned nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Why? There's too much ridging out ahead of it...Look @ the location of the HP to the NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I think this is applicable to this month, as far as snow. A wise man once told me: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on Metfan. He actually said that. I don't know how he knew Anthony, but it blew my mind. It could always miss us, but even the storm that so called missed us to the north, was still a hell of a storm. We had 50 mph wind gusts with that one that killed a guy in Hopatcong when a tree fell on his home. Just because it does not snow in our backyard does not mean that a storm did not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Who gives a freakin crap if it's rain or snow, it has a storm. PERIOD +1, Imagine if that shortwave dove down a little bit farther SW and we had a bit more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 you never learn anything Neither do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Its good to see some amplification potential here, because we are going to need it to get more snow. Just not going to get sucked in, but will the acknowledge the PNA spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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