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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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Major changes at H5 between the 00z and 06z GFS. The 00z GFS only dug the trough to the Ohio Valley while 06z digs the trough to southern Alabama. Major changes. The Canadian is almost the same as the 06z GFS and the 00z ECMWF matches the 00z GFS. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was a close miss and the 00z ECMWF control run was well southeast. I suspect we'll see some more changes as time goes on. The ridge axis is actually in pretty good position. Something to keep an eye on. I counted 5 major hits on the individual Euro ensembles (10"+)

do you see any similarities to PD 2 ?

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They might as well issue a winter storm warning from DC to the tropics of North Carolina for day 4 (Dgex storm) and then again for days 6 and 8.

 

DCA averages about 62 degrees during the last week of March. That would be like NYC from April 30th to May 4th, where we average 62-64 degrees.


That just shows you how insane this is; Especially if next week produces snow in the tropics again.

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A lot of talk about the south trend but if the models are correct with the ULL in the NE Pac and the ridge spike out west, this potential Day 5-7 storm could be an entirely different amplifying system. 

 

 

At this pace, it will turn into a snowstorm for Georgia and Florida.

Your trip to Guatemala completely jinxed the last 45 days of "winter".

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Just judging from the PNA an NAO, seems like the risk is definitely on the side of too much suppression. Southern and eastern sections of the forum, once again, are in the best positions, but as we have seen this month, that doesn't necessarily mean any of us will get into appreciable action.

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Just judging from the PNA an NAO, seems like the risk is definitely on the side of too much suppression. Southern and eastern sections of the forum, once again, are in the best positions, but as we have seen this month, that doesn't necessarily mean any of us will get into appreciable action.

We could start to build up into a drought again if we don't see some storminess by the end of the month into April, and then go into an eastern ridge pattern. The Palmer index still has most of us as dry.

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Just judging from the PNA an NAO, seems like the risk is definitely on the side of too much suppression. Southern and eastern sections of the forum, once again, are in the best positions, but as we have seen this month, that doesn't necessarily mean any of us will get into appreciable action.

How rare would it be to have 3 significant snow events in March  miss us to the south ? Can anybody find a year where this happened ?

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A lot of talk about the south trend but if the models are correct with the ULL in the NE Pac and the ridge spike out west, this potential Day 5-7 storm could be an entirely different amplifying system. 

 

 

I don't recall him commiting to a big system in the NYC Metro 

 

see above

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no storm threads till 5 days away from any potential according to moderator Sickman still a few days away from any 5 day potential - lets try and play by the rules this time around including if a thread is opened in the future

Open a thread that reads..... snow threat!!!

. :pimp:  

 

 

attachicon.gif

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no storm threads till 5 days away from any potential according to moderator Sickman still a few days away from any 5 day potential - lets try and play by the rules this time around including if a thread is opened in the future

I'll have to call him into PHL to enforce that rule there too.

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