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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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The Euro control always produces some extreme solution, I would easily have over 100" if it were correct. We'll probably just be cold and dry. 

 

Yeah, as it pummels Virginia.  It is usually correct, but they are just missing us on the last three, otherwise we would have 100 inches.  JUST missed three in a row.  They happened, just at the control run showed, it is just that they went all around us.

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Euro Control run has a 988 mb low near Hatteras at 228 hrs, with moderate snow falling here.  At 234 hrs it has a 956 mb low about 100 miles off of Atlantic City with heavy snow falling here, at 240 hrs it has a 944 mb low just south of Cape Cod with extremely heavy snow here, at 246 hrs it has a 948 mb low just north of Cape Cod with heavy snow still falling, then it is over.  QPF over 2 inches.  Ok, then.  

Considering Sandy made landfall with a pressure at 945 mb at Atlantic City and was a Perfect Storm hybrid, and no other storm after 1938 had a pressure as low as that, I'd rate a solution like that a real possibility. Snow goggles activated!! :snowman:

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The Euro control always produces some extreme solution, I would easily have over 100" if it were correct. We'll probably just be cold and dry. 

 

You can definitely see the potential there on the GFS also, it is just that it keeps bombing the low way the heck out to sea instead of where it will really be.   That is why the GFS is always number 3 or 4 in the long range.

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we've seen this "control" run show monster solutions all winter. it's probably going to be wrong. what's the point of talking about it?

 

Every single one of the last three storms it showed at this range happened.  It is just that it did not satisfy your requirements in your particular back yard.  South Jersey is getting hammered tonight.  Northern New England got hammered last week.  Maybe us next time.  Who knows?  Why not discuss the potential?

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we've seen this "control" run show monster solutions all winter. it's probably going to be wrong. what's the point of talking about it?

 

The model shows it.

 

People discuss what the models show.

 

Why bother forecasting at all?  Maybe you are in the wrong line of work?

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The model shows it.

 

People discuss what the models show.

 

Why bother forecasting at all?  Maybe you are in the wrong line of work?

In fairness it is the 240hr Euro Control model, which is an inferior version of a 10 day model output.   I guess there is no harm in discussing it, but I can see why a professional would find this a waste of time.

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In fairness it is the 240hr Euro Control model, which is an inferior version of a 10 day model output.   I guess there is no harm in discussing it, but I can see why a professional would find this a waste of time.

 

I haven't looked at it either nor do I really care at this point what it shows, but I'm not getting upset at the simple idea of others talking about it.  We have long range forecasts that are seasons away.  There is no harm if some members want to discuss varying models. 

 

Besides, 10 days out haven't verified much worse than 2 days out! 

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Seems to me that sifting through pages and pages of eventual nothing has got you even more twisted than usual.

you're half right. it's sifting through pages and pages of discussion by people who don't know what they're talking about

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In fairness it is the 240hr Euro Control model, which is an inferior version of a 10 day model output.   I guess there is no harm in discussing it, but I can see why a professional would find this a waste of time.

 

Even the main Euro run has a foot plus as close as Northern CT with this storm, and only because the main run has it too warm here. The ensembles are colder.  

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Yeah it's for entertainment but i don't wanna hear some 10 day model gives us 2 feet of snow again, not after all the agony we've suffered over the past month.

Snow boots packed up in attic. Snow blower gas cans emptied into vehicles. Snow parkas placed in summer storage. Flannel lined pants packed away. Rain gear to the front closet. Ready for spring.

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Euro Control run has a 988 mb low near Hatteras at 228 hrs, with moderate snow falling here. At 234 hrs it has a 956 mb low about 100 miles off of Atlantic City with heavy snow falling here, at 240 hrs it has a 944 mb low just south of Cape Cod with extremely heavy snow here, at 246 hrs it has a 948 mb low just north of Cape Cod with heavy snow still falling, then it is over. QPF over 2 inches. Ok, then.

I want a BECS to close out the Winter. Who's with me?
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