Saturn510 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its pretty funny the canadian said no at 5 days out for early march non storm and was all alone in its funny looking output, and got it right. This time it was gung ho on major snow from day 5 to day 3 and is wrong. The GFS had basically the same solution for that storm and was totally wrong. Now it always hated this and its right. When the Euro is our friend its wrong and is always right when it hates a storm the others like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Its pretty funny the canadian said no at 5 days out for early march non storm and was all alone in its funny looking output, and got it right. This time it was gung ho on major snow from day 5 to day 3 and is wrong. The GFS had basically the same solution for that storm and was totally wrong. Now it always hated this and its right. When the Euro is our friend its wrong and is always right when it hates a storm the others like. Yep every model found a way to screw us this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's hard to say the models screwed you over when you more than double your average snowfall. The models certainly worked in our favor in late January and early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It's hard to say the models screwed you over when you more than double your average snowfall. The models certainly worked in our favor in late January and early February. Their performance was still pretty bad even with our events that worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Their performance was still pretty bad even with our events that worked outTo me that's the whole problem. The models didn't work in our favor the storms did. The models just caught on late with what was really going to happen. So much model hugging. Not saying either of you guys are more guilty then anyone else by the way. It's just the way it is on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Craig Allen On-Air Inc Stamp this on the NAM.It has succumbed to the other players. I don't know if it's bad data or bad interpolation / interpretation of the data. First to bring the snowstorm up, last to push it away. (At one point, it had the storm so far north that it changed to rain on the coast) but for the most part, it has become a useless model to watch this winter in terms of placement of systems. For 3 runs in a row, it now sees the cold air suppressing heavy snow well south. Is that a trend? For the NAM, it is. So, while there still may be another rain shower in spots, much of today will be dry and mild. It will turn colder tonight and tomorrow. St Patrick's Day & parade will be quite cold. Don't get me wrong, the storm is real; it's not a weather model fantasy. A decent snowmaker will once again dump several inches, perhaps even 4"+ in southern NJ on south. Philly could get 2-4" and 5-10" possible in the mid Atlantic states. The reason I'm keeping those numbers inflated is because it will fall mostly Sunday night. If it was during the daylight hours, a lot of it would melt. For us, I'll keep the chance of getting fringed by the northern extent of the precip shield through Monday morning. Then, the cold air wins out again, a la 2 weekends ago. Some of us will need the broom for a coating to an inch or 2 at most (maybe nothing but flurries, north & west); we shouldn't have to shovel a whole bunch of green snow. And you know what? The rest of the week no longer appears as threatening in terms of bitter temps or threats of snow. Perhaps we're finally turning the corner?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I just commented on his facebook page. Pretty funny post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 In his morning forecast yesterday , craig mentioned a model had it so warm that it may rain or sleet. I thought to myself that at least were not going to have to worry about suppression if there is the possibility of mixing with rain or sleet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Seasonal Snowfall2013-14 WinterAs of 3/15/2014 / 5:30 PM Worcester: 84.3"Allentown: 66.9" Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 62.9" Newark Airport: 60.7"Islip, NY: 58.9" Boston: 58.6"NYC Central Park: 57.4"Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 56.3"NWS Upton L.I.: 55.0"NYC LaGuardia: 52.1"Hartford: 50.1"NYC JFK: 45.5"Providence: 43.3"Washington Dulles: 37.9"Atlantic City: 33.7"Baltimore (BWI): 30.7"Washington National: 23.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well think of things this way too.....if we were rooting against snow, the models have screwed us several times this winter as well! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well think of things this way too.....if we were rooting against snow, the models have screwed us several times this winter as well! Sent from my iPhone Strange comments indeed coming from posters with one of the top snowfall years on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Seasonal Snowfall / Long Island2013-14 WinterAs of 3/15/2014 / 5:30 PM Port Jefferson: 65.7"Smithtown: 64.3"Baiting Hollow: 59.8"Centerport: 59.8"Islip / MacArthur Airport: 58.9"BNL / Upton: 55.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Seasonal Snowfall / Long Island 2013-14 Winter As of 3/15/2014 / 5:30 PM Port Jefferson: 65.7" Smithtown: 64.3" Baiting Hollow: 59.8" Centerport: 59.8" Islip / MacArthur Airport: 58.9" BNL / Upton: 55.0" Any measures for Staten Island or New Brunswick NJ? 60 at Newark seems low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Any measures for Staten Island or New Brunswick NJ? 60 at Newark seems low. 59.8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Any measures for Staten Island or New Brunswick NJ? 60 at Newark seems low. The NWS cooperative for New Brunswick, NJ has 56.2 inches of snow this winter to date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The NWS cooperative for New Brunswick, NJ has 56.2 inches of snow this winter to date... Think it puts us ahead of 94 a bit, I'm closer to SI but part of it juts south of me, so will say around 57. Great, but not epic. Had more total in 2011. but when you have one storm at 32" it doesn't take much to have an epic winter....we still haven't come near the 09-10 Mid Atlantic totals, which I hold is a once a generation, or even less, anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Think it puts us ahead of 94 a bit, I'm closer to SI but part of it juts south of me, so will say around 57. Great, but not epic. Had more total in 2011. but when you have one storm at 32" it doesn't take much to have an epic winter....we still haven't come near the 09-10 Mid Atlantic totals, which I hold is a once a generation, or even less, anomaly.Had 50 inches here on S.I. during the 93-94 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 omg, we might get 1-2" tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 omg, we might get 1-2" tonight! YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Hecs next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro Control run has a 988 mb low near Hatteras at 228 hrs, with moderate snow falling here. At 234 hrs it has a 956 mb low about 100 miles off of Atlantic City with heavy snow falling here, at 240 hrs it has a 944 mb low just south of Cape Cod with extremely heavy snow here, at 246 hrs it has a 948 mb low just north of Cape Cod with heavy snow still falling, then it is over. QPF over 2 inches. Ok, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wait 946 low? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wait 946 low? LOL Yes. There is a ton of ensemble support for a low near that location. Of course, that is just a wee bit extreme, but even the Euro puts a 992 mb low there at that time. The control run also had an extremely intense storm near that location this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wait 946 low? LOL 944 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I just want a storm to cripple NYC for a week, stopping all commerce for days next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I just want a storm to cripple NYC for a week, stopping all commerce for days next week. LMAO how about that for a stimulus package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 northern stream system that may sneak to our south on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 LMAO how about that for a stimulus package. I just want a storm to cripple NYC for a week, stopping all commerce for days next week. "This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions…human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together…mass hysteria!" --Dr. Peter Venkman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Actually a bunch of individual Euro members want to produce a bomb somewhere in the East between 228 and 240 hrs. Need to watch this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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