Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 This one looks like snow or nothing. It only gets bad when we have snow someplace and rain in others or if NW areas get the shaft. No it gets bad when all the models but one say no and people hold on to that one model and the naysayers come in and make fun, people get offended etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2014 Author Share Posted March 13, 2014 So far the march 17-20 thread has remained civil but in a couple days if the threat is still alive and we have model mayhem we know it has a chance to spiral out of control it has turned into a pissing contest between a few individuals - check out the last few posts there - my opinion is when that happens the individuals involved in the personal attacks should be suspended till the potential storm is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No it gets bad when all the models but one say no and people hold on to that one model and the naysayers come in and make fun, people get offended etc.I think it's just that some people here can't bare to see some area close by get snow and not here. So people downplay those storms as non events. That pisses people like me off. It portrays arrogance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Just wondering where sub-tropic climate ends in the NE. IMO the proper place to start it would be right around Salisbury, Maryland on the Delmarva Peninsula...draw a line down oh about halfway between DC & Richmond...then maybe over towards Nashville. All places above the 1000' elevation contour in the Southern Appalachians could not be considered sub tropical...they would have to be specially designated for altitude and probably thrown in with the humid continental group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We are constantly talking about the north shore vs south shore climate difference on here. It was especially obvious this winter. To break it down further the hilly and wealthy areas (thus more rural) radiate much better then surrounding locations. I would put extreme sw Nassau aka long beach in the subtropical zone No way-none of us have a subtropical climate. Would you honestly say that anywhere near Long Island has a similar climate to places like New Orleans or even the VA Tidewater, where palm trees grow naturally? Those areas are considered subtropical too. Tropical is south of Tampa, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 We are constantly talking about the north shore vs south shore climate difference on here. It was especially obvious this winter. To break it down further the hilly and wealthy areas (thus more rural) radiate much better then surrounding locations. I would put extreme sw Nassau aka long beach in the subtropical zone In fairness Chris isn't from here so he doesn't know the micro climate of the north shore. I think you are missing my point...S. Shore...N Shore...Half Shore...they've had cooperative stations at Patchogue, Babylon, Shirley...Bridgehampton...Westhampton...even throw Islip in...the stats from none of these stations is reflective of a sub-tropical climate...the average January temperature at most of those stations is 29 F to 31 F...they all average over 100 days a year with sub -freezing minima...the annual mean for all of them is just a fraction over 50 F...the point is this is not sub tropical weather...Houston, Texas, with an average annual temperature approaching 70 F and a January mean in the mid 40's is sub tropical...this is not a microclimate question...save for the fact that the crazy UHI in NYC has so lifted temperatures in that spot so far above what they should be for this region that somehow they managed to just sneak into the broad ranged sub tropical Koppen definition.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Well we do have palm trees on the nautical mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No matter how you slice it....over 50 inches of snow in a season with many other seasons between 30 and 40 inches....sub tropical? C'mon.....that's kind of like saying an area is a heat island because there were a few nights where people lit bonfires and barbecued late night Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No matter how you slice it....over 50 inches of snow in a season with many other seasons between 30 and 40 inches....sub tropical? C'mon.....that's kind of like saying an area is a heat island because there were a few nights where people lit bonfires and barbecued late night Sent from my iPhone I also think the North and South Shore climate difference is overplayed at times. We have 54" this season in Long Beach, most places on the north shore have 60-65" I believe. Places in Monmouth County also have over 60". They often do better than we do down here but it's not like there's often a dramatic difference in seasonal snow totals. Upton long term averages maybe 32" and we average probably 25-26" in Long Beach. Central Park averages 28". The snow almost always does melt faster down here though due to the coastal front events and higher moisture content in the air here. The summers are actually cooler down here than the north shore. If you were to average the year round temperature between here and Syosset it would roughly be a wash I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 People sometimes ask me why I continue to post here...my reply is rather concise & laconic...I just find it thoroughly impossible to permit flat out misrepresentation of reality to go unchallenged. I'm well acquainted with the Koppen Classification System having studied climatology in college. The Koppen system is predicated upon a series of thresholds...number of months the mean temperature in a certain location exceeds a certain level, number of months the mean temperature falls below a certain level, and so on. With regards to humid vs arid, precip thresholds are likewise the criteria of choice. When the quoted poster states that "the 5 boroughs and Long Island" have a "sub-tropical" climate per the climate system...he says so with a know-it all brashness intended to quash debate from here on in; he has cited an arcane and not particularly well known climate system (not particularly well known here as the emphasis here is on meteorology rather than climatology...though, of course, professional climatologists are very familiar with Koppen)...and since it is unfamiliar to most, few will be willing or able to argue the contrary...they will simply accept what has been stated as incontrovertible truth. If one were to go strictly by the numbers (and I believe the latest Koppen Charts are based on 1981-2010 data)...it is indeed true that La Guardia Airport...because of the exceptional urban heat island effect that badly distorts their climatological record...does manage to fall just under the outer threshold of the so called sub tropical climate...the remarkably high means recorded at LGA have pushed NYC into the same climate zone that Houston, Texas is designated under. Not too many people would reasonably argue that the climates of Houston & NYC are similar...but when you allow distorted & unrepresentative data as is recorded at LGA into the climate datatbase...this is the result. The quoted poster's lumping of poor Long Island into the mix are either a result of a steady drumbeat of north & west of the city training since childhood, a misreading of the maps (the sub -tropical classification is generally only around the immediate NYC environs), or simply looking at some less than carefully drawn maps...which, like so many isothermal profiles one sees on so-called "national weather maps"...we simply draw the isotherms in a north / south orientation as we approach the East Coast because of all that hot water sitting offshore...in this case...the sub-tropical zone is drawn the same way...straight up the coast. The temperature statistics from the (few) reliable Long Island stations place the area in what I have always deemed a modified continental climate (warm summer, short & moderately cold winter).... It's not just LGA, it's JFK, NYC, and EWR as well. They all average above 0°C in January, and above 22°C in July. Islip averages -0.3°C in January, so it falls short, but I imagine a lot of LI meets the 0°C threshold. While NYC is no Houston, the growing season (frost-free period) is lengthier than many southern cities. And the climate is capable of supporting a variety of subtropical plants, including palm trees. The city has warmed, but these things aren't really new, there's a southern magnolia in a Brooklyn that dates back to the 1800's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It's not just LGA, it's JFK, NYC, and EWR as well. They all average above 0°C in January, and above 22°C in July. Islip averages -0.3°C in January, so it falls short, but I imagine a lot of LI meets the 0°C threshold. While NYC is no Houston, the growing season (frost-free period) is lengthier than many southern cities. And the climate is capable of supporting a variety of subtropical plants, including palm trees. The city has warmed, but these things aren't really new, there's a southern magnolia in a Brooklyn that dates back to the 1800's. The growing season at places like LGA or some other stations may in fact be 240 days...not that different from Norfolk, VA...but again...is a local artificially modified climate supposed to cause a misunderstanding of the climate of the overall region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hi I hope someone can answer, do the model times vary because it seems like they have been coming out later than they previously had. Maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Daylight savings time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hi I hope someone can answer, do the model times vary because it seems like they have been coming out later than they previously had. Maybe I'm missing something. Yes because the clocks were pushed ahead. 12z is now 8 AM....not 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hi I hope someone can answer, do the model times vary because it seems like they have been coming out later than they previously had. Maybe I'm missing something. Everything is an hour later now because of daylight savings time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Daylight savings time Yes because the clocks were pushed ahead. 12z is now 8 AM....not 7 AM. Everything is an hour later now because of daylight savings time. Oh right, didn't know that affected it, thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Brilliant posts William. Love when ignorance crashes and burns. Especially when the arguer is very confident in those ignorant beliefs. William "the destroyer of stupidity." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The growing season at places like LGA or some other stations may in fact be 240 days...not that different from Norfolk, VA...but again...is a local artificially modified climate supposed to cause a misunderstanding of the climate of the overall region? The region overall is largely transitional, with NYC and surrounding areas falling within the subtropical zone. This is something that's usually pointed out. And I think the heat island's effect on NYC's climate is largely overstated, while the artificial influence exists, the ocean exerts an even larger influence on the climate of NYC. There's a notable difference (about 2 weeks) in the length of the growing seasons at LGA/NYC/JFK and EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Brilliant posts William. Love when ignorance crashes and burns. Especially when the arguer is very confident in those ignorant beliefs. William "the destroyer of stupidity." The region overall is largely transitional, with NYC and surrounding areas falling within the subtropical zone. This is something that's usually pointed out. Hey Tom...the last 14 years I've been forced to shovel about 50 feet / 600 inches of snow in my "sub-tropical" climate that I live in per the NWS records at WSO Upton... Hey Tom...the temp once fell to -23 F out here in the sub-tropical paradise I reside in per the same set of records. Hey Tom...the Suffolk County Airport (FOK) dropped into the negative teens below zero several times this winter...all in this wonderful tropical neighborhood. I'm glad I don't have to cross over into bitterly cold Essex County, New Jersey and a brand new "Continental Climate Zone" and find out what real weather is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 People sometimes ask me why I continue to post here...my reply is rather concise & laconic...I just find it thoroughly impossible to permit flat out misrepresentation of reality to go unchallenged. I'm well acquainted with the Koppen Classification System having studied climatology in college. The Koppen system is predicated upon a series of thresholds...number of months the mean temperature in a certain location exceeds a certain level, number of months the mean temperature falls below a certain level, and so on. With regards to humid vs arid, precip thresholds are likewise the criteria of choice. When the quoted poster states that "the 5 boroughs and Long Island" have a "sub-tropical" climate per the climate system...he says so with a know-it all brashness intended to quash debate from here on in; he has cited an arcane and not particularly well known climate system (not particularly well known here as the emphasis here is on meteorology rather than climatology...though, of course, professional climatologists are very familiar with Koppen)...and since it is unfamiliar to most, few will be willing or able to argue the contrary...they will simply accept what has been stated as incontrovertible truth. If one were to go strictly by the numbers (and I believe the latest Koppen Charts are based on 1981-2010 data)...it is indeed true that La Guardia Airport...because of the exceptional urban heat island effect that badly distorts their climatological record...does manage to fall just under the outer threshold of the so called sub tropical climate...the remarkably high means recorded at LGA have pushed NYC into the same climate zone that Houston, Texas is designated under. Not too many people would reasonably argue that the climates of Houston & NYC are similar...but when you allow distorted & unrepresentative data as is recorded at LGA into the climate datatbase...this is the result. The quoted poster's lumping of poor Long Island into the mix are either a result of a steady drumbeat of north & west of the city training since childhood, a misreading of the maps (the sub -tropical classification is generally only around the immediate NYC environs), or simply looking at some less than carefully drawn maps...which, like so many isothermal profiles one sees on so-called "national weather maps"...we simply draw the isotherms in a north / south orientation as we approach the East Coast because of all that hot water sitting offshore...in this case...the sub-tropical zone is drawn the same way...straight up the coast. The temperature statistics from the (few) reliable Long Island stations place the area in what I have always deemed a modified continental climate (warm summer, short & moderately cold winter).... Maybe sit the next few plays out.... Yes, lga and nyc represent the climate, influenced by the heat island, that no less than half of the nyc metro experiences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Maybe sit the next few plays out.... Good, well thought out retort!!! <rolls eyes> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 IMO the proper place to start it would be right around Salisbury, Maryland on the Delmarva Peninsula...draw a line down oh about halfway between DC & Richmond...then maybe over towards Nashville. All places above the 1000' elevation contour in the Southern Appalachians could not be considered sub tropical...they would have to be specially designated for altitude and probably thrown in with the humid continental group. And see, this is where you are wrong. I grew up in those southern Apps and we most CERTAINLY had a subtropical climate unless you were way up above 3000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 And see, this is where you are wrong. I grew up in those southern Apps and we most CERTAINLY had a subtropical climate unless you were way up above 3000ft. You grew up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Good, well thought out retort!!! <rolls eyes> Your small area of LI is not indicative of the larger area's climate, sorry. NYC and its environs are in that classification. Ok, so maybe a few parts of the north shore and way out east aren't. Did it really take 6+ paragraphs to say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 You grew up? Apparently with far more education (and the ability to be succinct) than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Brilliant posts William. Love when ignorance crashes and burns. Especially when the arguer is very confident in those ignorant beliefs. William "the destroyer of stupidity." That you confuse long-windedness with intelligence speaks volumes regarding your own intellect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Hey Tom...the last 14 years I've been forced to shovel about 50 feet / 600 inches of snow in my "sub-tropical" climate that I live in per the NWS records at WSO Upton... Hey Tom...the temp once fell to -23 F out here in the sub-tropical paradise I reside in per the same set of records. Hey Tom...the Suffolk County Airport (FOK) dropped into the negative teens below zero several times this winter...all in this wonderful tropical neighborhood. I'm glad I don't have to cross over into bitterly cold Essex County, New Jersey and a brand new "Continental Climate Zone" and find out what real weather is... It also got to minus 10 this winter in the great dismal swamp in tidewater VA. Your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Apparently with far more education (and the ability to be succinct) than you. That you confuse long-windedness with intelligence speaks volumes regarding your own intellect. I find it really funny watching you try to shed your monosyllabic vocabulary and make an effort to speak at a level far above your natural comfort zone...funny in a pathetic way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 It also got to minus 10 this winter in the great dismal swamp in tidewater VA. Your point? The point has been made time w/o number...because you are too dense to grasp it is no fault of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Your small area of LI is not indicative of the larger area's climate, sorry. NYC and its environs are in that classification. Ok, so maybe a few parts of the north shore and way out east aren't. Did it really take 6+ paragraphs to say that? Your "knowledge" of this area's climate could be placed on a postage stamp...so save your breath arguing what you think is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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