Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Lol 897mbs....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:35 PM, YanksFan27 said: The control run is essentially all of the euro ensembles being run at the same time with very low resolution. It's an experimental product. No. See above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:35 PM, YanksFan27 said: The control run is essentially all of the euro ensembles being run at the same time with very low resolution. It's an experimental product.As I understand, it's the initialization data and physics package of the op run, but at the resolution of the individual ensemble members.Edit: Didn't see Ray already addressed this. I haven't looked, but if this product really depicted an 897 mb low or something... how do you get such crazy discrepencies just by lowering the model's resolution, if everything else is the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:33 PM, Juliancolton said: Who told the weenies about the Euro control anyway? Never heard of it being used operationally before it's been discussed ad nauseum this week. It's always been 1234abc's favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:37 PM, famartin said: OK, looks like the Euro control needs an explanation. You have the Euro operational, high resolution, best model data feed, in essence "the best of the best". The Euro Ensemble is a blend of 50 ensemble members plus the EPS control run. Really great as a blend, not good individually. So, what is the EPS control? Its a lower version of the Euro operational. In essence, a crappier version of the Euro op. Kapish? Ray. Isn't the control the OP run 51 x ? Regardless most of us look to the ensembles. But do they even skill score the control ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:37 PM, Juliancolton said: As I understand, it's the initialization data and physics package of the op run, but at the resolution of the individual ensemble members. Idk I don't pay attention to it ( it can't be that bad tho ) but it shows huuuuuge bombs often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:28 PM, YanksFan27 said: Really? Where? The control run does have a massive noreaster but I have no way of telling the strength.No not really lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:37 PM, famartin said: No. See above. Oh, another met said differently in the past. I'll take your word for it. Anyway, I don't see 897mb anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:39 PM, PB GFI said: Ray. Isn't the control the OP run 51 x ? Regardless most of us look to the ensembles. But do they even skill score the control ? No. Julian explained it pretty well too, but I suppose I should explain how ensembles work. Ensemble members are different model runs with mildly altered initial conditions. The idea is that the initial conditions we input into operational models (GFS, Euro Op, UKMET, NAM, GGEM) are never "perfect", so certain assumptions are made about where small errors may exist and these are the starting point for the different model runs. The EPS control takes the Euro op initial conditions (i.e., the best intial conditions we have) but runs it at the same resolution as all the members (i.e., lower resolution). The idea is to see what the members would spit out without any changes to the initial data. Because all of this is run at a lower resolution than the Euro op, its not as good individually, but generally a bit better when taken as a whole (average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:42 PM, Rjay said: No not really lol I was going to say, you're not going to get an 897mb low in March unless the world is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:42 PM, YanksFan27 said: Oh, another met said differently in the past. I'll take your word for it. Anyway, I don't see 897mb anywhere Bc a pressure like that is saved for extremely intense cat 5s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:37 PM, famartin said: OK, looks like the Euro control needs an explanation. You have the Euro operational, high resolution, best model data feed, in essence "the best of the best". The Euro Ensemble is a blend of 50 ensemble members plus the EPS control run. Really great as a blend, not good individually. So, what is the EPS control? Its a lower version of the Euro operational. In essence, a crappier version of the Euro op. Kapish? Why have the control run around then if the op euro and ensembles are far superior? Seems strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Here we go again with at least one more threat on the table, I'm not getting invested. It's going to be a miss, cold and dry FTW! Though the MJO is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 10:09 PM, seanick said: As long as we have a quiet hurricane season I'll be happy. I have a new yacht in jersey city. I'll be pissed if I have to travel north river to ride out a storm On 3/17/2014 at 10:09 PM, seanick said: As long as we have a quiet hurricane season I'll be happy. I have a new yacht in jersey city. I'll be pissed if I have to travel north river to ride out a storm The happiest 2 days in a boat owner's life...the day he picks up his new boat, and the day he gets rid of it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:44 PM, YanksFan27 said: I was going to say, you're not going to get an 897mb low in March unless the world is ending. Yea was just having some fun. This is the banter thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:44 PM, Rjay said: Bc a pressure like that is saved for extremely intense cat 5s Duh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:44 PM, Sn0waddict said: Why have the control run around then if the op euro and ensembles are far superior? Seems strange The control is a part of the Euro ensembles. Hence my comment about looking at the EPS control being not much better than looking at an individual GFS ensemble member. I've noticed people don't do that as much as they used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:45 PM, Rjay said: Yea was just having some fun. This is the banter thread lol I'm actually shocked that the stupid control run hasn't shown anything that absurd yet. You want to give the control run a victory lap? It was one of the first to bring Sandy into NJ as an intense cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What effects would we experience realistically and hypothetically with a 897 mob low nearby in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:47 PM, SnoSki14 said: What effects would we experience realistically and hypothetically with a 897 mob low nearby in March? Unthinkable...but probably bc it's impossible. A lot of damage to our coast and a lot of precip and wind most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:47 PM, YanksFan27 said: I'm actually shocked that the stupid control run hasn't shown anything that absurd yet. e. It did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:52 PM, Snow88 said: It did yesterday. Yea that's true. 944mb or 950mb or whatever is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:47 PM, famartin said: The control is a part of the Euro ensembles. Hence my comment about looking at the EPS control being not much better than looking at an individual GFS ensemble member. I've noticed people don't do that as much as they used to. Thank you for posting. So blending the EPS in with rest of the ensambles essentially helps to "smooth out" the overall solution of the euro ensambles? Essentially it keeps a couple wild ensambles members from skewing the average solution too far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:47 PM, famartin said: The control is a part of the Euro ensembles. Hence my comment about looking at the EPS control being not much better than looking at an individual GFS ensemble member. I've noticed people don't do that as much as they used to. I believe there are differences in the initial condition of the atmosphere that the control and Ensembles are run with as well. Essentially the control is like an individual member run with the current initial atmosphere versus different initial conditions like other ensemble members are run with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Thank u kind sir Famartin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On 3/18/2014 at 12:05 AM, tdp146 said: Thank you for posting. So blending the EPS in with rest of the ensambles essentially helps to "smooth out" the overall solution of the euro ensambles? Essentially it keeps a couple wild ensambles members from skewing the average solution too far? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Models are fooling us again! Do not fall for their trickery and deceipt! It is a conspiracy against all weenies.....they are hell bent on emotional torture and they are laughing once again as we speak! DO NOT FALL FOR THEIR TRAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 BOAT =Break Out Another Thousand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On 3/17/2014 at 11:07 PM, Rjay said: The euro control showed an 897 mb bomb today...wow!!!Now there's the BECS I'm talking about. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Euro ensembles look great for next weeks storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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