Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 2.9" on the board with air pocket lollies up to 4" on the grass. Nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 So far the GFS doing well as they were much drier than the NAM all along for the afternoon/evening batch. The NAM kept insisting we all get .25-.35" and safe to say nobody in Northern NJ, NYC or LI is seeing that. GFS probably a bit too warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Intellicast future radar show NYC turning to rain by 1am. How accurate is this? This looks well overdone compared to current radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Intellicast future radar show NYC turning to rain by 1am. How accurate is this? Hard to say right now, the NE wedge is holding very tough, all models had winds 080-100 by now and yet LGA/JFK are still 020-040...FOK only place showing any sign of going east, I definitely am starting to have concerns that any wave of precip that comes through after 02-03Z could be FZRA through a good part of the night even at places like LGA/JFK but we'll have to keep monitoring the wind direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 i was just in your town, no way u have an inch, maybe .5 and thats pushing itI said about a slushy inch. I didn't measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This looks well overdone compared to current radarThat's valid over 5 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hard to say right now, the NE wedge is holding very tough, all models had winds 080-100 by now and yet LGA/JFK are still 020-040...FOK only place showing any sign of going east, I definitely am starting to have concerns that any wave of precip that comes through after 02-03Z could be FZRA through a good part of the night even at places like LGA/JFK but we'll have to keep monitoring the wind direction Yep... Winds have not shifted to the east and temps have not gone above freezing along the coast as modeled around this times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hard to say right now, the NE wedge is holding very tough, all models had winds 080-100 by now and yet LGA/JFK are still 020-040...FOK only place showing any sign of going east, I definitely am starting to have concerns that any wave of precip that comes through after 02-03Z could be FZRA through a good part of the night even at places like LGA/JFK but we'll have to keep monitoring the wind directionI think most of NNJ is in the upper 20's. Most of the modeling had us at or near freezing by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 That's valid over 5 hours from now. U think that amount of precip is gonna fill in from a weak coastal with the radar the way it looks now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 U think that amount of precip is gonna fill in from a weak coastal with the radar the way it looks now? think the best thing to do here is to just wait and see whats going to happen. take the current conditions compared to what was forecasted at this time and it doesn't take much to realize that cold air is holding stronger than expected. Winds are still not turning easterly or any wind that would cause us to warm quick enough at all levels to become rain quicker than expected. im enjoying my 1/2-3/4" as it was very nice to see the ground whitened the first time this winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 About 1/2 a centimeter of snow in Port Jeff, which is equivalent to 2/10 ths of an inch, I think. Some light snow continues to fall. Very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think most of NNJ is in the upper 20's. Most of the modeling had us at or near freezing by this point. Even LGA is currently 29 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 1/2" on the top of deck 29° currently - very light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Even LGA is currently 29 degrees.Low level cold air definitely under modeled so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Measured 0.75" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Central Park with 0.05 LE so far, so that should have broken the seal as far as first measurable snow of the year...but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Is the stuff in TN for us or does the precip later come from something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Is the stuff in TN for us or does the precip later come from something else? I don't think that stuff will arrive until at least midnight. Probably start off with freezing drizzle then transfer to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't think that stuff will arrive until at least midnight. Probably start off with freezing drizzle then transfer to rain. it would have to fly to get here by midnight-I'd say more like 3am and we're likely torched aloft by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought the radar was supposed to fill in & the rap had show by 10ish? We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 it would have to fly to get here by midnight-I'd say more like 3am and we're likely torched aloft by then? Mesoscale analysis puts the current 850 0C line through ACY. We're already seeing strong WAA at those levels. For the coast if the winds don't change east by then, then we might see a small period of freezing rain before winds change and temps warm at the surface. (Time sensitive): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Upstream soundings show dry air aloft which means we're going directly to freezing drizzle especially near the coast. We'll see if things can improve some for a period of snow or sleet across the interior. But with no ice crystals I think freezing drizzle is likely -- and bad for travel if you're not near the warmer coastal areas. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought the radar was supposed to fill in & the rap had show by 10ish? We shall see I'm not trying to be a downer or make anyone mad.. But my own personal opinion is that coastal is too Far East and the energy transfer is happening to far off the coast to push any moisture back in.. Anything we see will be from the tail end currently in Tenn, and that won't happen till atleast 3-4 am... Again just my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 got about a quarter of an inch of snow on grass over here... snow was sticking to roadways earlier but has since melted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not trying to be a downer or make anyone mad.. But my own personal opinion is that coastal is too Far East and the energy transfer is happening to far off the coast to push any moisture back in.. Anything we see will be from the tail end currently in Tenn, and that won't happen till atleast 3-4 am... Again just my guess sounds reasonable since this system hasn't gone as planned so far - makes you wonder what surprises we will encounter on Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 sounds reasonable since this system hasn't gone as planned so far - makes you wonder what surprises we will encounter on Tuesday.. I would certainly hope we don't strike out with 3 straight lol...again I could be wrong and the radar could miraculously fill in and give an inch or two lol Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Mesoscale analysis puts the current 850 0C line through ACY. We're already seeing strong WAA at those levels. For the coast if the winds don't change east by then, then we might see a small period of freezing rain before winds change and temps warm at the surface. (Time sensitive): Here`s the issue , temps are in the mid to upper 20`s , with all that snow cover the models didn't assume was in place . a lot of people who`s 850`s go to plus 2 , the precip turns out to be frezzing rain , not just rain . Yesterday , the models assumed that the surfaces were 5 degrees warmer than they are now . I Thnk theres a real danger of a lot more ice than people think just away from the coast . but no that far either . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here`s the issue , temps are in the mid to upper 20`s , with all that snow cover the models didn't assume was in place . a lot of people who`s 850`s go to plus 2 , the precip turns out to be frezzing rain , not just rain . Yesterday , the models assumed that the surfaces were 5 degrees warmer than they are now . I Thnk theres a real danger of a lot more ice than people think just away from the coast . but no that far either . I agree 100%. There's a much higher chance of freezing rain than there was before. The models have underestimated the low level cold and there's now snow cover on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here`s the issue , temps are in the mid to upper 20`s , with all that snow cover the models didn't assume was in place . a lot of people who`s 850`s go to plus 2 , the precip turns out to be frezzing rain , not just rain . Yesterday , the models assumed that the surfaces were 5 degrees warmer than they are now . I Thnk theres a real danger of a lot more ice than people think just away from the coast . but no that far either . At what point tho?? Where is that moisture coming from?I just don't see a 1020 coastal taking over and backfilling what looks like a terrible radar currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 At what point tho?? Where is that moisture coming from?I just don't see a 1020 coastal taking over and backfilling what looks like a terrible radar currently this has happened LOTS of times with our recent coastal transfer events. the transfer causes the holes in the radar and widespread panic and weenie-suicides often occur. there will be a second wave from the developing low, just sit back and watch it unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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