Discussion/obs for snow->ice->rain Sunday/Sunday night 12/8-9/2013

[famartin]

Thinking anywhere from a coating to as much (if everything worked out) as 2" back home tomorrow aft/eve before it warms up and melts away.

[eastonwx]

Mt. Holly originally mentioned that Lehigh Valley area may hang on to the cold air a bit longer leading to a bit more icing, but we'll see. From today's AFD :

 

"THE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST HERE IS THE LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
MORE OF A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE THE NAM DEEPENS THE COASTAL LOW A BIT MORE.
SHOULD IT REMAIN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS, WE COULD SEE A
LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WHICH MEANS ICIER CONDITIONS."

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Thinking anywhere from a coating to as much (if everything worked out) as 2" back home tomorrow aft/eve before it warms up and melts away.

Agreed. Expecting about an inch. 

[bugalou]

Looking forward to a cold rain down here in AC.

 

Keeping my fingers crossed that the coastal spins up and throws a little something my way Tues-Wed.

[JTA66]

Local TV mets going with an inch or less for Philly and immediate burbs ... sounds about right. Let the radar hallucinations begin!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Im going with less than an inch for phl and immediate burbs. Sleet/fzra til around 8pm then plain rain thereafter. More ice north and west of course.

[Animal]

Last night was a disaster with a very cold rain. Got some snow but mostly nothing including some ice when I was up at 6 AM.

Current temp 25F.

Mt Holly NWS has issued an an advisory for 2 inches.for my county.

Hoping we get the goods this time!

 

Best,

 

DS

[famartin]

I'm still a little worried about a front-end thump, not a big one but enough to be surprising...  january 26, 2011 is still in my head lol... probably won't happen, but its why i allow up to 2

[Animal]

I'm still a little worried about a front-end thump, not a big one but enough to be surprising...  january 26, 2011 is still in my head lol... probably won't happen, but its why i allow up to 2

 

 

I agree. I really only expect a coating to an inch.. But Mt Holly NWS provided a decent if not great forecast for my area last night. They are calling for 2 inches as of this afternoon.

[ChescoWx]

Last night was a disaster with a very cold rain. Got some snow but mostly nothing including some ice when I was up at 6 AM.

Current temp 25F.

Mt Holly NWS has issued an an advisory for 2 inches.for my county.

Hoping we get the goods this time!

Best,

DS

Dark I thought u posted it was "ripping" last night...

[famartin]

I agree. I really only expect a coating to an inch.. But Mt Holly NWS provided a decent if not great forecast for my area last night. They are calling for 2 inches as of this afternoon.

 

Also note that, as always, my forecast thoughts are for the Trenton area *only*.

[Redmorninglight]

Looking forward to a cold rain down here in AC.

 

Keeping my fingers crossed that the coastal spins up and throws a little something my way Tues-Wed.

 

We maybe see a few flakes before the changeover tomorrow.  The Tues-Wed period has my interest.  Hopefully we see our first accumulation then.  Currently 35/26 with light North winds. Nice late fall night.

[hazwoper]

0Z NAM is very interesting for SEPA. Quite an increase in precip and temps still look good up to late evening (just looking at maps no soundings).

[Animal]

Dark I thought u posted it was "ripping" last night...

 

It was ripping snow at that point when I made the post.

I went to bed shortly after that post.

Wife told me when I was getting up early around 6 AM that I was going to be upset with what I saw outside. Ha Ha.

I was in bed and heard the great sound of  sleet on the house as I was closing my eyes., At that point I knew that this was not the event to start the cusp of winter.

Snow Gods hopefully decide Sunday will be the day

I learned last night this is what Washington DC deals with every winter. 33 & 32 with the cold/warm rain.

 

Best,

 

Matt

[ChescoWx]

Hi Matt

Not questioning ur post just hate the term "ripping" ....folks in New England seem to use that description liberally.....not a strong met term for either moderate or heavy snow reports.....just a personal opinion.

All the best

Paul

[Animal]

Hi Matt

Not questioning ur post just hate the term "ripping" ....folks in New England seem to use that description liberally.....not a strong met term for either moderate or heavy snow reports.....just a personal opinion.

All the best

Paul

 

 

I used the term "ripping" as a folly joke as you noted.

I was not by any mean is a heavy snow event.

In my life currently I find humor these days in using terms such as ripping to express my local weather.

I agree it is annoying at times.

 

Best,

 

Matt

[Absolute Humidity]

My drops were certainly ripping at times last night. Anyways, a coating of sleet (if sneaking warm layer slips in) to an inch of snow is all I'm expecting here.

[famartin]

New guidance has not changed my expectations back home (see first post).

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

0Z NAM is very interesting for SEPA. Quite an increase in precip and temps still look good up to late evening (just looking at maps no soundings).

0z NAM came in much colder for wave 1 for eastern PA. Parts of eastern PA look to get about 70% frozen on this run; a big jump up. Plus the second wave shifted west. But it is the NAM. Not gonna get excited till I see some more support.

[RedSky]

Interesting that the RAP and HRRR short range models are coming in far north into PA with initial moisture surge tomorrow. Something to watch

[Absolute Humidity]

GGEM shows 10mm + all snow, 4" for Philly FWIW.

[RedSky]

0z euro a little wetter than 12z. Close to 2" snow for sepa and central and south jersey

 

lolipop of 3" for philly

[chubbs]

Pt. Cloudy - 50F

 

 

in Tokyo - good luck on first measurable snow

[eastonwx]

woke up to a dead battery on the vantage vue this AM. Temps around my area in 22-24F range, with DP 16-18

[Porsche]

Temp 25 DP 16, am hoping to see some stuff flying around for the Eagles game, would make it fun!!!

[ChescoWx]

Latest Wxsim forecast based on 6z data has a colder solution than yesterday. Here is the breakdown for NW Chester County PA (Currently cloudy 24.7)
Snow arrives by 1pm temp at 32.9 but falling into the 20's quickly as precip begins
By 4pm Heavy Snow temp at 28.7 (1.8" accum)
7pm Moderate Snow temp 27.3 (3.0")
10pm Snow mixing with IP temp 27.9 (4.0")
1am - IP/ZR temp 29.2
7am - ZR temp 31.7
Temp finally goes above 32 after 0.39" frozen on top of snow
another 0.15" falls as plain rain

[ChescoWx]

Temp 25 DP 16, am hoping to see some stuff flying around for the Eagles game, would make it fun!!!

Interesting to note in my memory banks (Eagles fan since early 70s) I can never remember snow ever falling during any game at the vet of the linc. For sure never any accumulating snow during an actual game.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not sure how much will accumulate there...looks rather light during most of the game. However the cold certainly favors the home team and not the dome team.

[eastonwx]

Not sure how much will accumulate there...looks rather light during most of the game. However the cold certainly favors the home team and not the dome team.

Don't they have some sort of turf heating system to prevent accumulations? Not sure if LFF has it...

[Bradjdale]

Interesting to note in my memory banks (Eagles fan since early 70s) I can never remember snow ever falling during any game at the vet of the linc. For sure never any accumulating snow during an actual game.