MJO812 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12Z NAM is 0.25-0.50" areawide. A nice 2-4 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z 4k NAM has a mega band centered right over Northern NJ at hour 25. It develops faster than 06z. If this verified someone in northern NJ up through Rockland County, Weschester and SW CT would get hammered. This band then slowly slides eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z 4k NAM has a mega band centered right over Northern NJ at hour 25. It develops faster than 06z. If this verified someone in northern NJ up through Rockland County, Weschester and SW CT would get hammered. This band then slowly slides eastward. How's parts of Orange County look on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 A nice 2-4 inch snowfall 4k Weenie snow maps are 4-8" NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 How's parts of Orange County look on this run The band misses you to the south. It essentially initiates over VA, MD and PA and then builds northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 4k Weenie snow maps are 4-8" NW of NYC. How far nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Mesoscale banding 24 hours out is impossible to pinpoint. The 4k NAM and HRRR are the models to look at but it's placement will change run to rum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Why are people saying the euro is a whiff? It has .2 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Mesoscale banding 24 hours out is impossible to pinpoint. The 4k NAM and HRRR are the models to look at but it's placement will change run to rum I haven't looked at the HRRR but the 4k NAM has been pretty consistent. Here is the depiction from yesterday's 18z NAM. Compare this to the current 12z run. While the banding is more intense this run, the axis of the heaviest banding is in a similar position. Of course extreme caution should be used. Need look no further than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The band misses you to the south. It essentially initiates over VA, MD and PA and then builds northeastward That bands just to my south... Could always shift in either direction north or south if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Why are people saying the euro is a whiff? It has .2 for us The Euro is not a whiff, but it focuses the heavier banding offshore. Also we're likely to see subsidence on either side of this band, wherever it does ultimately setup. I would expect a large range of accumulations across the region. I think 2-3" is the way to go right now, and you can adjust accordingly as the event is arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That bands just to my south... Could always shift in either direction north or south if it verifies It could, but it's been pretty consistent. You don't want to end up just north or south of intense banding. Subsidence city. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This would be great if it happens and makes yesterdays/ last night's bust all the more easy to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This would be great if it happens and makes yesterdays/ last night's bust all the more easy to swallow. Lower your expectations and you won't be disappointed. The burst of snow that happened yesterday around 5PM was a sight for sore eyes. It was enough to whiten everything up. And the freezing drizzle last night was impressive considering how bad the radar looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Lower your expectations and you won't be disappointed. The burst of snow that happened yesterday around 5PM was a sight for sore eyes. It was enough to whiten everything up. And the freezing drizzle last night was impressive considering how bad the radar looked. True. Snow didn't make it that far north to here, but we did have quite the glaze this am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Check this band out...wonder if we can get a nice visibility drop in it tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It could, but it's been pretty consistent. You don't want to end up just north or south of intense banding. Subsidence city. Good luck. The band looks though like it would pivot east through the rest of the region, so you probably wouldn't want to end up NW of it. Either way, looks like a quick hitter where we get most of our snow within 4 or 5 hours. Hopefully ratios can help with whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Check this band out...wonder if we can get a nice visibility drop in it tomorrow afternoon. That band sits over the same area from 13z until 16z before weakening and sliding east. Western MD and eastern PA really get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just fair warning expect 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 max as the air us rising creating banding in one place it's sinking in another. And it will b very easy to b in the Rip off zone and it does look like the model is hinting it's w of the take but u will not knw til tomrrw imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The band looks though like it would pivot east through the rest of the region, so you probably wouldn't want to end up NW of it. Either way, looks like a quick hitter where we get most of our snow within 4 or 5 hours. Hopefully ratios can help with whatever falls. The band weakens a bit as it slides east. Essentially the band initiates down south and then expands northeastward so the I-287 corridor gets the benefit of being right under the band as it intensifies, and then it slides eastward. Another very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those asking here is what the band looks like as it sides eastward, reminds me of our typical squall line collapse at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Check this band out...wonder if we can get a nice visibility drop in it tomorrow afternoon. That is 9am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For those asking here is what the band looks like as it sides eastward, reminds me of our typical squall line collapse at the coast. I cannot tell you how many times during each snowstorm that the band was always west of me nyc and west and as it moved towards my area is just broke apart and just wasnt as impressive at all....kind of like our summer time squall lines like you said. Hoping the coast cashes in on this one as im on long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The nam has been poor with band placement. But a frontogentic band with 3-6 inches+ not out of the question. Strong lift could also enhance snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The one thing to remember here is that that band placement is around 9am when this event will start...the NAM has serious issues with being too slow to start events, always behind so that could mean that band is gonna be more east or even more NE of where the NAM shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I cannot tell you how many times during each snowstorm that the band was always west of me nyc and west and as it moved towards my area is just broke apart and just wasnt as impressive at all....kind of like our summer time squall lines like you said. Hoping the coast cashes in on this one as im on long island I think we all see some steady snow tomorrow but I think we see a wide range of variety in totals. Right now I would favor right a long I-95 for the heaviest accumulations and lets hope that someone cashes in like areas saw yesterday. I hope that the media weathermen do a good job in mentioning the potential for localized heavier amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The one thing to remember here is that that band placement is around 9am when this event will start...the NAM has serious issues with being too slow to start events, always behind so that could mean that band is gonna be more east or even more NE of where the NAM shows it. It starts at 7AM for NW sections. (12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The nam has been poor with band placement. But a frontogentic band with 3-6 inches+ not out of the question. Strong lift could also enhance snow ratios. This does look like a setup where a heavy band develops where the best dynamics are placed, but it's on the move so it won't be in one area for a long amount of time. Hopefully it develops in time to nail someone, and it pivots east. These bands have a way of forming across N NJ due to terrain and closeness to the ocean, so it wouldn't surprise me if they get nailed again. But it's so hard to hang your hat on an outcome when essentially you're relying on a snow band to deliver most of your snow. And again, the system coming together too late is still on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Seems we can analyze that band placement all day, but it's really going to come down to tomorrow AM and looking out the window and at the radar! I will say it has been a rather exciting start to the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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