UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If the rgem verified this would be a nice light/ moderate event area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That's a very good step for the Euro . Its now showing up 2 inches in CNJ and about 1 inch to the North , Consider its last 2 runs it was way South and East. Lets see if there s another tic N on todays 12z Th GFS and NAM are prob in the 3 - 5 area , and if they hold , its possible you can just blend . But its good that the Euro now sees it . Not a Whiff like before 6z NAM in the 2- 4 range . looks like the models are closing in on each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 850`s Minus 9 , surface temps in the upper 20`s . GFS 3 - 6 NAM 2 - 4 Euro 1 - 2 I like the higher end with this one The GFS and NAM have been consistent run to run over the past 2 days with this The Euro has stepped N since yesterday , so maybe its a case of playing catch up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 850`s Minus 9 , surface temps in the upper 20`s . GFS 3 - 6 NAM 2 - 4 Euro 1 - 2 I like the higher end with this one The GFS and NAM have been consistent run to run over the past 2 days with this The Euro has stepped N since yesterday , so maybe its a case of playing catch up . That still shows about an inch or less for my area so hopefully that trends. Bit more north for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 In sticking by my call that this will be a 1-3/2-4 type deal. Want to see some more consensus through todays model suites before i go for something maybe more than that. Hey if it can happen down in DE it could happen here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This looks like a quick hitting event and I am still searching for dynamics to support heavy banding but haven't yet found them. The mid level disturbance is fairly elongated over PA and the OV when it kicks off precipitation. But the front and offshore baroclinic zone look to be the focal point for developing stray precipitation. So in general I think we're looking at a 1-3" event -- it also will be important to watch the boundary layer and see what initially accumulates. We'll probably have some good ratios with big time cold air moving in aloft. I'm not sure anyone would complain about a solid advisory level snowfall. But I still would like to see the RGEM and Euro trend a bit westward and not have the NAM and GFS tick east a bit. Lower QPF values and lighter precipitation are going to lean this storm on the lower side of 1-2" for sure..and it probably will be less in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This looks like a quick hitting event and I am still searching for dynamics to support heavy banding but haven't yet found them. The mid level disturbance is fairly elongated over PA and the OV when it kicks off precipitation. But the front and offshore baroclinic zone look to be the focal point for developing stray precipitation. So in general I think we're looking at a 1-3" event -- it also will be important to watch the boundary layer and see what initially accumulates. We'll probably have some good ratios with big time cold air moving in aloft. I'm not sure anyone would complain about a solid advisory level snowfall. But I still would like to see the RGEM and Euro trend a bit westward and not have the NAM and GFS tick east a bit. Lower QPF values and lighter precipitation are going to lean this storm on the lower side of 1-2" for sure..and it probably will be less in some spots. Some good news early is the end of the current HRRR runs down in the TN Valley for 00Z tonight show precip being way more west in line with the NAM/RGEM vs. the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The GFS and NAM Bufkit suggest ratios 12:1 on average for this event, with the max temp in profile technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam fronto banding tool goes crazy for Long Island and costal nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam fronto banding tool goes crazy for Long Island and costal nj May not be too far from the truth considering what happened south of us. At this juncture i am not dismissing any "crazy" solution after some of the unexpected high totals achieved in PA and DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Quite the difference in placement of highest accumulation potential between the NAM and its hi res companion on 6z....NAM loves the central Delmarva while hi res seems to like y'all better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Much drier on the 09z SREFs. Not close to 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Be careful with the NAM, the 06z 4k NAM had a solid snowpack on the ground west of the city at initialization. Instead we have about 0.5" of snow with a 0.10"+ of ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Much drier on the 09z SREFs. Not close to 0.25". I counted two panels where the mean showed 0.10"+. The 03z SREF's only had two panels showing 0.10"+ as well but the 0.25"+ was closer to the city than 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Most tv mets are already saying 3-5" area wide... That's not like them especially after these last 2 events lol. I def don't see 3-5 for anywhere above NYC... Am I wrong on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Lets not all jump ship over an SREF run. We got how many model runs to go today? Im just gonna sit back and analyze each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 May not be too far from the truth considering what happened south of us. At this juncture i am not dismissing any "crazy" solution after some of the unexpected high totals achieved in PA and DE This could still be a minor or non-event for us. The dynamics with the wave aren't particularly strong and are zooming to the east. It very well could get organized too late for us to see much snow. Let's see how 12z and 0z tonight pan out-it's a very fragile setup. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" areawide-1" well inland and 3" for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Most tv mets are already saying 3-5" area wide... That's not like them especially after these last 2 events lol. I def don't see 3-5 for anywhere above NYC... Am I wrong on this? I'd wait until tonight to offer possible totals. If this falls apart this afternoon and tonight they will look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Most tv mets are already saying 3-5" area wide... That's not like them especially after these last 2 events lol. I def don't see 3-5 for anywhere above NYC... Am I wrong on this? the higher totals should once again be in the southern half of the forecast area - BUT after what happened yesterday to the south of us its way to early to try to pin down exact totals - have to leave all options on the table and it will probably end up being a NOW forecasting event with a surprise or 2 thrown in for good or bad measure......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam still looks amp up..I doubt it backs off much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hr 27 steady light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam still looks amp up..I doubt it backs off much It's the NAM. Until the Euro comes fully on-board, I think a miss or pretty much non-event is just as likely as something more substantial. Sheared out energy racing to the east is very rarely anything notable around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hr 30 mod snow into area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's the NAM. Until the Euro comes fully on-board, I think a miss or pretty much non-event is just as likely as something more substantial. Sheared out energy racing to the east is very rarely anything notable around here. Just like seeing it hold serve. Euro was def not nothing last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't get why people are saying if the euro doesn't come on board, it's not happening. The euro has been pretty bad recently. It isn't the end all be all, and clearly is not as zoned in as it was last winter I think this event still may not happen, but I don't know why I've seen all over twitter and what not that the euro isnt great so this isn't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nam is .25+ for the area. Looks pretty cold also for ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't get why people are saying if the euro doesn't come on board, it's not happening. The euro has been pretty bad recently. It isn't the end all be all, and clearly is not as zoned in as it was last winter I think this event still may not happen, but I don't know why I've seen all over twitter and what not that the euro isnt great so this isn't happening The Euro in the short range does poorly with these weak type fast moving events alot of the time, everyone recall the event last winter all models had pegged as a near miss but the Euro had 2-3 or 2-4 for days on end and even up until the last minute and the other models all verified on a miss...for whatever reason its more effective it seems with stronger more dynamic systems in the short term as a whole...the danger in this event is there may be a shadow effect somewhere in the area....likely NW of NYC but you can see it on the models a bit, that leading band of snow may hit one region while the secondary coastal one misses them to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12Z NAM is 0.25-0.50" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The euro last night was around .2 and the nam was .25+, not that far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't get why people are saying if the euro doesn't come on board, it's not happening. The euro has been pretty bad recently. It isn't the end all be all, and clearly is not as zoned in as it was last winter I think this event still may not happen, but I don't know why I've seen all over twitter and what not that the euro isnt great so this isn't happening The Euro hasn't been as good as past winters, but it still shows how this can be largely a whiff. I'm not dismissing the potential outright, I'm just saying it's a fragile setup that can easily fall apart for us. Hopefully that's wrong and we get a nice few inches for the area. Ratios will also likely be more than 10-1 given the cold mid level air, so 0.25" liquid can mean 3" or more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.