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December 10 -11 3rd Wave


NEG NAO

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It has a half inch of snow for everyone. More than it has ever showed.

The GFS has 4 . The NAM ( useless ) has 2 . The Euro shows A HALF an inch :facepalm:    .... That's a NO .

I don't know if its right , but to  I gotta kinda stand by , that's a no .

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The GFS and NAM  have seen it , The Euro slid it East , ,Mayb replaying today in some parts of the area Tues AM .Would like to see the Euro agree at some point .

 

The fact the GFS sees this and the Euro is suppressed is odd because these are the exact sort of events where the GFS tries to use energy from the north to squash them away...on the other hand its somewhat thermal gradient induced and its possible the American models may have a better handle right now on the whole SE ridge/gradient situation.

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The fact the GFS sees this and the Euro is suppressed is odd because these are the exact sort of events where the GFS tries to use energy from the north to squash them away...on the other hand its somewhat thermal gradient induced and its possible the American models may have a better handle right now on the whole SE ridge/gradient situation.

I agree its typical for the GFS to take the max out due East . The only thing that makes me suspect is that the Euro loves to Deepen energy in its LR

off the East coast .  It brings the PV further south and shunts the Ridge .

I guess its a week of where the PV is , if it relaxes the model will pull it N .

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The fact the GFS sees this and the Euro is suppressed is odd because these are the exact sort of events where the GFS tries to use energy from the north to squash them away...on the other hand its somewhat thermal gradient induced and its possible the American models may have a better handle right now on the whole SE ridge/gradient situation.

And great call on the WAA beating the models - I saw u had that 2 days ago , Nice

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And great call on the WAA beating the models - I saw u had that 2 days ago , Nice

 

 

Too bad it was mainly south of here but even 2-3 days ago most models showed virtually zip for PHL....if the high had been even 100 miles more NE we'd have done way better....18Z RGEM now can see this event and shows snow in here, not as much as the NAM but more than Ops GFS or Euro

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The GEFS have been pretty impressive for the Tue event for the past few days, particularly the last few cycles.  So it's not too surprisingly to see the 18z guidance look fairly robust.  I'll be curious to see if the ensembles continue to be wetter and west of the OP, or if they are closer this go around.

 

Looks pretty cold for midday, early December.

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A bust? Yea if you consider an over performer a bust because that's what it generally was.

With the exception of an extremely narrow strip band of heavy snow which I would admit u can consider " over performed", seeing how no model saw it, the storm has been as forcasted and I was referring more to Friday nights bust.... As this storm is still in obs

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I think we gotta survive one more main model run with this storm that being the 00z tonight if the NAM GFS and RGEM all hold or improve we got it in the bag I think just then need to hope for more QPF

 

I think this storm/wave overall has the "potential' currently to be a pleasant surprise for us tri-state folks, in that I mean a couple inches (1-3, 2-4). im quietly excited by this potential

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