bass28 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Building confidence in this wave now as most if not all srefs have it as we'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Building confidence in this wave now as most if not all srefs have it as we'll. As do the progressive models including nogaps and ukmet fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The NAM would be a legit advisory level event, probably like 3-5 or 3-6". It is the Nam though but I definitely think this event is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 SREF plumes show 2-4 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'd like to see the NAM be more NW than it is to truly buy this event will happen, remember it has a NW bias at this window of the forecast period, I'd like to see us getting rain right now on its progs to feel better about the event occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Man the nam gets up long islanders nice atleast north shore,starting to get a hint of excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'd like to see the NAM be more NW than it is to truly buy this event will happen, remember it has a NW bias at this window of the forecast period, I'd like to see us getting rain right now on its progs to feel better about the event occurring It's gaining some support from the other models now though,let's see what the rest of the 0z suite shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 why because it doesnt show your favorable outcome??Great to see you posting again ace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'd like to see the NAM be more NW than it is to truly buy this event will happen, remember it has a NW bias at this window of the forecast period, I'd like to see us getting rain right now on its progs to feel better about the event occurring The thing is the UKMET has a nice hit as well and we all know that model likes to show noreasters go through Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Great to see you posting again ace You missed your buddy? I just got a flashback of ace getting suspended in December 2009 for calling a bust before the storm even got going and he wound up with 15 inches of snow. If only a bust like that could happen again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 one of the analogs for this event is 12/5/2005 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/06-Dec-05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 one of the analogs for this event is 12/5/2005 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/06-Dec-05.html If I recall we were forecast to get 3-6 or 4-8 out of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 If I recall we were forecast to get 3-6 or 4-8 out of that another analog is Nov 28 -29 , 1995 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/29-Nov-95.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 one of the analogs for this event is 12/5/2005 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/06-Dec-05.html I remember that event with 5" IMBY but zilch at work in Somerset County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 one of the analogs for this event is 12/5/2005 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/06-Dec-05.html 000 NOUS41 KOKX 062116 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-070400- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 415 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NEW CANAAN 0.7 0800 AM 12/6 BRIDGEPORT 0.5 0700 AM 12/6 DARIEN 0.5 0750 AM 12/6 NORWALK 0.5 0800 AM 12/6 SHELTON 0.5 0740 AM 12/6 ...NEW LONDON... 0.9 0830 AM 12/6 NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... BERGENFIELD 0.6 0700 AM 12/6 TENAFLY 0.6 0630 AM 12/6 ...ESSEX COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 1.0 0700 AM 12/6 CEDAR GROVE 0.7 0800 AM 12/6 ...PASSAIC COUNTY... WEST PATTERSON 0.5 0800 AM 12/6 ...UNION COUNTY... GARWOOD 0.5 0635 AM 12/6 NEW YORK ...KINGS COUNTY... SHEEPSHEAD BAY 1.8 0645 AM 12/6 ...NASSAU COUNTY... LIDO BEACH 5.0 0800 AM 12/6 MERRICK 4.4 0700 AM 12/6 WOODBURY 3.3 0900 AM 12/6 HICKSVILLE 2.4 0800 AM 12/6 ...NEW YORK COUNTY... NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.0 0700 AM 12/6 NYC/UPPER WEST SIDE 0.6 0800 AM 12/6 ...QUEENS COUNTY... FLUSHING 1.8 0700 AM 12/6 NYC/JFK ARPT 1.2 0700 AM 12/6 NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.8 0700 AM 12/6 ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EAST QUOGUE 6.0 0700 AM 12/6 BRIDGEHAMPTON 6.0 0755 AM 12/6 WADING RIVER 5.6 0900 AM 12/6 PATCHOGUE VILLAGE 5.5 0700 AM 12/6 MORICHES 5.5 0700 AM 12/6 NWS UPTON 5.4 0700 AM 12/6 ISLIP AIRPORT 5.3 0700 AM 12/6 HOLBROOK 5.2 0800 AM 12/6 NORTH BABYLON 5.2 0800 AM 12/6 LINDENHURST 5.1 0740 AM 12/6 MEDFORD 5.0 1100 AM 12/6 SOUTHAMPTON 5.0 0800 AM 12/6 BAITING HOLLOW 4.7 0700 AM 12/6 COPIAGUE 4.0 0700 AM 12/6 MOUNT SINAI 3.0 1125 AM 12/6 RIVERHEAD 3.7 0700 AM 12/6 PORT JEFFERSON STA 3.4 0730 AM 12/6 SHOREHAM 3.2 0845 AM 12/6 SMITHTOWN 2.7 0745 AM 12/6 ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS 0.7 0630 AM 12/6 HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 0.5 0935 AM 12/6 YONKERS 0.5 0845 AM 12/6 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 here is the text output for the 0Z NAM - NYC has over 3 inches snow for tomorrows storm and has close to 0.40 liquid for Tuesday all frozen http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 here is the text output for the 0Z NAM - NYC has over 3 inches snow for tomorrows storm and has close to 0.40 liquid for Tuesday all frozen http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt nam = NOT A GOOD MODEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 0Z GFS is making that 12/5/2005 analog look like a good match http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013120800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The gfs looks ok, I do believe it may be downplaying this just a bit. This could be one of those situations where the models increase amounts as we get very close to the event. That goes the same for the other wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 000 NOUS41 KOKX 062116 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-070400- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 415 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NEW CANAAN 0.7 0800 AM 12/6 BRIDGEPORT 0.5 0700 AM 12/6 DARIEN 0.5 0750 AM 12/6 NORWALK 0.5 0800 AM 12/6 SHELTON 0.5 0740 AM 12/6 ...NEW LONDON... 0.9 0830 AM 12/6 NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... BERGENFIELD 0.6 0700 AM 12/6 TENAFLY 0.6 0630 AM 12/6 ...ESSEX COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 1.0 0700 AM 12/6 CEDAR GROVE 0.7 0800 AM 12/6 ...PASSAIC COUNTY... WEST PATTERSON 0.5 0800 AM 12/6 ...UNION COUNTY... GARWOOD 0.5 0635 AM 12/6 NEW YORK ...KINGS COUNTY... SHEEPSHEAD BAY 1.8 0645 AM 12/6 ...NASSAU COUNTY... LIDO BEACH 5.0 0800 AM 12/6 MERRICK 4.4 0700 AM 12/6 WOODBURY 3.3 0900 AM 12/6 HICKSVILLE 2.4 0800 AM 12/6 ...NEW YORK COUNTY... NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.0 0700 AM 12/6 NYC/UPPER WEST SIDE 0.6 0800 AM 12/6 ...QUEENS COUNTY... FLUSHING 1.8 0700 AM 12/6 NYC/JFK ARPT 1.2 0700 AM 12/6 NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.8 0700 AM 12/6 ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EAST QUOGUE 6.0 0700 AM 12/6 BRIDGEHAMPTON 6.0 0755 AM 12/6 WADING RIVER 5.6 0900 AM 12/6 PATCHOGUE VILLAGE 5.5 0700 AM 12/6 MORICHES 5.5 0700 AM 12/6 NWS UPTON 5.4 0700 AM 12/6 ISLIP AIRPORT 5.3 0700 AM 12/6 HOLBROOK 5.2 0800 AM 12/6 NORTH BABYLON 5.2 0800 AM 12/6 LINDENHURST 5.1 0740 AM 12/6 MEDFORD 5.0 1100 AM 12/6 SOUTHAMPTON 5.0 0800 AM 12/6 BAITING HOLLOW 4.7 0700 AM 12/6 COPIAGUE 4.0 0700 AM 12/6 MOUNT SINAI 3.0 1125 AM 12/6 RIVERHEAD 3.7 0700 AM 12/6 PORT JEFFERSON STA 3.4 0730 AM 12/6 SHOREHAM 3.2 0845 AM 12/6 SMITHTOWN 2.7 0745 AM 12/6 ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS 0.7 0630 AM 12/6 HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 0.5 0935 AM 12/6 YONKERS 0.5 0845 AM 12/6 $$ Lido Beach jackpot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GEM took a step towards the GFS tonight for this system, it still is more suppressed but its come closer from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I've said before I think GGEM usually does a good job in the 24-48 for location of precip shields etc.. Doesn't do a good job this early determining frz line... But I can't see the GGEM all of a sudden realizing whatever it is the NAM sees... I think it's a non event unless you live in southern jersey southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The 6z GFS wants to swing this through Tues . Looks like there`s some Minus 8 air at 850 through CNJ . But once again too much PV and it suppressed . 60 hours has become the new long range with these models . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam loves this event. Also, all of the 6z gefs ensembles show this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nam loves this event. Also, all of the 6z gefs ensembles show this storm. Only 1 of the 00Z GFS ensemble members was very suppressed vs the Op, its more or less the world vs. the Euro/GEM right now and the GEM came closer from where it had been, it won't be a monster event but a couple of inches definitely possible based on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Only 1 of the 00Z GFS ensemble members was very suppressed vs the Op, its more or less the world vs. the Euro/GEM right now and the GEM came closer from where it had been, it won't be a monster event but a couple of inches definitely possible based on the setup. that's all we can ask for especially this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 12z Nam shifted east with Tuesday's event. Skirts the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 12z RGEM at 48 hourshttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This would hit the area if it went past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 this will also be a complete non-event here - also looking down the road a bit the indicies as of today are not in a favorable position at all for a storm to ttake a track favorable for a snowstorm around here 12z GFS looks much better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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