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December 10 -11 3rd Wave


NEG NAO

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He keeps saying mid 30s because he cant believe NYC and LI are colder then him.

31.8 degrees here in Queens.

It's crazy, our Hudson County Mesonet clearly shows its colder by a degree or two in eastern section then the western sections compared to Harrison and Kearny, we don't see that too often the network has 14 sensors spread across the county. 

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I have two questions, number one where is the cold air for tonight? I see basically 30 as the lowest temperature in ny state including western and northern parts. Second question is I don't ever remember getting a good snowfall in the 3-6 inch range with a northwest wind, do any of you remember a situation like that. Otherwise I'm psyched for our first snowfall for nyc and I will happy to observe from Brooklyn (home) and woodmere (work) and in between (belt parkway is sure to be a fun ride tomorrow if this snowfall happens.

Just got home from work and while it was pounding snow and nice for a few hours this was another lesson about basic forecasting. The models can show what they show but in the end climatology and local trends , knowledge can and needs to be used before the final forcast is given.1. If all night long temps are struggling to fall on light west and southwest winds that's not a good sign. 2. If you look at upstate ny and central Pennsylvania and see them struggling to drop under 30 that's not a great sign. 3.Finally , we have never gotten more than a passing snowfall be as much it a few inches without north or northeast winds. So while I am all in and love snow, this snowfall just reinsured that before I get too worked up , I'd still look at the plain old thermometer , and wind vane. Any thoughts?

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Just got home from work and while it was pounding snow and nice for a few hours this was another lesson about basic forecasting. The models can show what they show but in the end climatology and local trends , knowledge can and needs to be used before the final forcast is given.1. If all night long temps are struggling to fall on light west and southwest winds that's not a good sign. 2. If you look at upstate ny and central Pennsylvania and see them struggling to drop under 30 that's not a great sign. 3.Finally , we have never gotten more than a passing snowfall be as much it a few inches without north or northeast winds. So while I am all in and love snow, this snowfall just reinsured that before I get too worked up , I'd still look at the plain old thermometer , and wind vane. Any thoughts?

Yes good old common sense and knowledge of ones own local climate can go a long way in helping with the forecast.... that being said I think the forecast worked out pretty well with most places receiving the 2-4 inches that most forecasted.

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