snywx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I guess 1-3" inches of snow is the general amount for the Northern Tri State area. Most places will be in the 2-5" range anyway... Very few spots will come out of this with 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 livin on the edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 DAY 1... ...MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST... EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALONG THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET CORE ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/NORTHERN VA TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 DAY 1......MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TORACE NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLYAFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM WARMAIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALONGTHE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET CORE ALONGLOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF 4+INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/NORTHERN VA TO THESOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIERAMOUNTS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TOTHE MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONGTHIS CORRIDOR. Sounds like I-80 going south will have the best snowfall. So NYC may be in for a surprise, if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This third wave, is really a wave goodbye to bare ground for the rest of this month with the -EPO staying around. With cross polar flow, bare ground is out for quite awhile after this "third wave and potential Miller B this weekend. A real wave goodbye to bare ground this December with excellent snow and ice staying power too... I think a white Christmas will lock in by default with these two events and cutter risk almost slim with current pattern as shown now. "December to remember", it looks like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 WWA issued for NW counties, LI and parts of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Radar really blowing up south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Finally, NWS Upton pulled the trigger on WWAs for the NW Counties: ... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND SUFFOLK COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES... SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES... AROUND 30. * VISIBILITIES... OCCASIONALLY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE IN BRIEF BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * TIMING... SNOW WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE MORNING RUSH... AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. * IMPACTS... ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE ICY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY... INCLUDING AT LEAST THE START OF THE AFTERNOON RUSH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is how u might win up there...Upton AFD... TEMPERATURES ARE CRITICAL TO THIS FORECAST - EXPECT GENERALLY SLOWLYFALLING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...ANDTHIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WET-BULBING OFTEMPERATURE - ESPECIALLY NOTING THAT LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS BEINGADVECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHERN ZONES IN THEMID TO UPPER 20S AND SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 30. THIS TEMPERATURE FALLOFF WILL ALLOW FOR RATIOS OF AROUND 12:1 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND15-20:1 INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This system is really hauling, looks like we'll se snow within the next hour or so. Already flakes into ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 8z HRRR suggest snowfall rates 1-2" per over NNJ and NYC by 10am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The heaviest banding is setting up over E PA and it looks like it'll drift eastward in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The heaviest banding is setting up over E PA and it looks like it'll drift eastward in the next couple of hours. extrapolated that should bring the heaviest banding towards LI snow goggles are on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Good morning this event looks like a wham,bam, thankyou mam deal no disrespect intended the cold air will keep the snow around for awhile it is all good .Nowcasting is in effect you can resume your regular programming.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ...temp. already below freezing even on the east end 31.7* with cloudy skies..wind was WSW earlier,now its calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Sparta, NW NJ 31 / 29 Moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Feels mighty warm here in Bloomfield... kind of smelling a mix to start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Tek1972 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This system is moving extremely fast. I think 2-4 inches max. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ground / cars / etc already covered in Montville TWP. If it keeps up this pace all day we will def be more than a few inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MD...NRN DE...SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101228Z - 101730Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN INTENSE OHIO-VALLEY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ENEWD WITHIN STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A NE/SW-ORIENTED SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS IN TANDEM WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT AMIDST ANTECEDENT BAROCLINICITY. A CORRIDOR OF DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL SUPPORT THE PROGRESSION OF ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM NRN VA TO S-CNTRL PA ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CENTERED AROUND 500 MB THAT WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER ASCENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE DRIES. ..COHEN.. 12/10/2013 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow has begun in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 31F light anow here in Weatchester coating on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Upton still hasn't taken rain out of the forecast for north shore of LI. Yesterdays AFD mentioned warmer air coming off the Sound. We'll see ... Today Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 3pm. High near 35. Northwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Tek1972 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow has begun in BrooklynWow, it's partly cloudy in central Suffolk Hope it starts soon! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just follow it on radar. Snow will come down moderately immediately. Wow, it's partly cloudy in central Suffolk Hope it starts soon! Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snowing heavily moderately now here at intersection of Rt.17 and I-80 in southern Bergen. Everything already covered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Moderate snow in Bridgeport right by the coast. Not yet sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Started way better than I expected. Gathering accumulation rapidly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Good news for the NW folks and those wanting a prolonged event, the radar out of KBGM has improved quite nicely over the past hour and continues to fill in. The heaviest banding looks to be setting up from KMMU south and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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