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December 10 -11 3rd Wave


NEG NAO

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DAY 1...

...MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVE

ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO

RACE NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY

AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM WARM

AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALONG

THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET CORE ALONG

LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF 4+

INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/NORTHERN VA TO THE

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM

IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER

AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO

THE MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG

THIS CORRIDOR.

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DAY 1......MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...SHORTWAVEENERGY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TORACE NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLYAFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING.  DOWNSTREAM WARMAIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALONGTHE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET CORE ALONGLOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF 4+INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE/NORTHERN VA TO THESOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIERAMOUNTS.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TOTHE MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONGTHIS CORRIDOR.

 

Sounds like I-80 going south will have the best snowfall. So NYC may be in for a surprise, if things go right. 

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This third wave, is really a wave goodbye to bare ground for the rest of this month with the -EPO staying around.  With cross polar flow, bare ground is out for quite awhile after this "third wave and potential Miller B this weekend. A real wave goodbye to bare ground this December with excellent snow and ice staying power too...  I think a white Christmas will lock in by default with these two events and cutter risk almost slim with current pattern as shown now.  "December to remember", it looks like right now.

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Finally, NWS Upton pulled the trigger on WWAs for the NW Counties:

 

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

 

* LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND SUFFOLK COUNTY.

 

* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

 

* TEMPERATURES... AROUND 30.

 

* VISIBILITIES... OCCASIONALLY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE IN BRIEF BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

 

* TIMING... SNOW WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE MORNING RUSH... AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR.

 

* IMPACTS... ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE ICY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY... INCLUDING AT LEAST THE START OF THE AFTERNOON RUSH.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

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This is how u might win up there...Upton AFD...

 

TEMPERATURES ARE CRITICAL TO THIS FORECAST - EXPECT GENERALLY SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WET-BULBING OF
TEMPERATURE - ESPECIALLY NOTING THAT LOWER DEWPOINT AIR IS BEING
ADVECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL PLACE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S AND SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 30. THIS TEMPERATURE FALL
OFF WILL ALLOW FOR RATIOS OF AROUND 12:1 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND
15-20:1 INLAND

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mcd2075.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0628 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MD...NRN DE...SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN   NJ   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 101228Z - 101730Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL SPREAD ENEWD   THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.   DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN   INTENSE OHIO-VALLEY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ENEWD WITHIN STRONG   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A NE/SW-ORIENTED SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER   THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING   HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS IN   TANDEM WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT AMIDST ANTECEDENT   BAROCLINICITY. A CORRIDOR OF DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL SUPPORT THE   PROGRESSION OF ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM NRN VA TO S-CNTRL   PA ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CENTERED AROUND 500 MB THAT WILL FAVOR   SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY   AFTERNOON AS STRONGER ASCENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE MIDDLE   TROPOSPHERE DRIES.   ..COHEN.. 12/10/2013   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

 

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Upton still hasn't taken rain out of the forecast for north shore of LI.  Yesterdays AFD mentioned warmer air coming off the Sound.  We'll see ...

 

Today Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 3pm. High near 35. Northwest wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible

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Guest Tek1972

Snow has begun in Brooklyn

Wow, it's partly cloudy in central Suffolk

Hope it starts soon!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

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