Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 gfs 6-8 for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Is there sense to use the models when the event is less than 12 hrs away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS just as good as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 gfs 6-8 for metro area even up here? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Is there sense to use the models when the event is less than 12 hrs away? This is really a nowcasting kind of event. We're pretty sure we're in line for at least a couple inches for most of us, but more than that depends on how and where the banding sets up. I think there can be 6-7" totals in some places if the bands consolidate and set up over land. If it's like the RGEM or Euro and largely offshore with that, then we're limited to maybe 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is really a nowcasting kind of event. We're pretty sure we're in line for at least a couple inches for most of us, but more than that depends on how and where the banding sets up. I think there can be 6-7" totals in some places if the bands consolidate and set up over land. If it's like the RGEM or Euro and largely offshore with that, then we're limited to maybe 2-3". even 2 or 3 is a win...36 hrs ago, most of us thought we'd be getting nothing...now I'm getting greedy with that band so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 gfs 6-8 for metro area. I was thinking more 3 to 5. You seeing that much with the 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 even up here? Wow you are on the boarder of 2-4/4-6..its more expansive in she with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think ratios will be higher so 3-6" with higher amounts are definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 . I was thinking more 3 to 5. You seeing that much with the 0z . thats what the sv snow maps have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 thats what the sv snow maps have Got ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 tomorrows record snow is 1.3" set in 1932...JFK has no record for 1932 or 1961...Newark's record is 1.3" set in 1961...LGA is 1.6" in 1961...Central Park had 0.8" in 1961... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 tomorrows record snow is 1.3" set in 1932...JFK has no record for 1932 or 1961...Newark's record is 1.3" set in 1961...LGA is 1.6" in 1961...Central Park had 0.8" in 1961... Should be smashed unless the band sets up to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 tomorrows record snow is 1.3" set in 1932...JFK has no record for 1932 or 1961...Newark's record is 1.3" set in 1961...LGA is 1.6" in 1961...Central Park had 0.8" in 1961... Should be a piece of cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The last run of the RAP has shifted and somewhat increased the banding zone from PHL to NYC. Nothing out of the ordinary, but a couple of hours ago it was a line from Bridgeton to Keyport, now it has shifted N and W on a line from Lawrenceville to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is really a nowcasting kind of event. We're pretty sure we're in line for at least a couple inches for most of us, but more than that depends on how and where the banding sets up. I think there can be 6-7" totals in some places if the bands consolidate and set up over land. If it's like the RGEM or Euro and largely offshore with that, then we're limited to maybe 2-3". Aren't most storms, by this close to the storm, nowcasting events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The last run of the RAP has shifted and somewhat increased the banding zone from PHL to NYC. Nothing out of the ordinary, but a couple of hours ago it was a line from Bridgeton to Keyport, now it has shifted N and W on a line from Lawrenceville to NYC. The HRRR continues SE of that...here are its forecast for 14Z and 16Z, it just crawls the more intense band SE gradually with time...interestingly enough both models have very good forecasts as of 03Z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Is there sense to use the models when the event is less than 12 hrs away? Yes - the closer one gets to the actual event, the more accurate the models get for the actual outcome, since the spread in potential model outcomes (think of the error cone on a hurricane track forecast) is far less when one is much closer in time to the outcome. Perturbations in model outcomes over time, due to the chaotic nature of weather, are why deterministic models are just about useless beyond a week, whereas, most models are very accurate in forecasting the weather one hour from the initial conditions, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Models are more accurate the closer you are to the event, yes, but they are not necessarily as helpful given that as accurate as any model is in the short-term, it's still going to be hard for it to nail down the banding...which is something that using mesoscale nowcasting tools or the very short-term high-res models like the HRRR and RAP etc start to become more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Its weird ..the news forecasting 2-4 inches and schools already announcing early release and closings tomorrow in NE NJ, first time I see that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Its weird ..the news forecasting 2-4 inches and schools already announcing early release and closings tomorrow in NE NJ, first time I see that around here. LMAO, it's turning into the south!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The RAP runs are couple hours ahead of the HRRR runs. 3z RAP is already out on twisterdata: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=03&fhour=11¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 LMAO, it's turning into the south!!! Timing is everything as far as school closings go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The RAP runs are couple hours ahead of the HRRR runs. 3z RAP is already out on twisterdata: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=03&fhour=11¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false something has been wrong with the HRRR it has been skipping hours at a time over the last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Timing is everything as far as school closings go. Its bad timing for schools….send them the school under cloudy skys and by 10am its crushing snow….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Report of 4" of snow near Springfield, MO. Most guidance had under .1 QPF forecasted for that area overnight. Just goes to show what can happen if you get under a good band, especially with a little fluff factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 4k band is deff 1-3" an hour. Whoever gets under than for a few hours will have nice totals Don't mean to be a downer... but the 4k NAM sim reflectivity is almost always way overdone. There could be some 35+ dbz banding tomorrow morning but it's unlikely that it will cover 100 miles in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like our system is organizing nicely over mid-Tennessee, and good snow banding is stretching all the way to Indianapolis almost. Hopefully by dawn that's all on our doorstep. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't mean to be a downer... but the 4k NAM sim reflectivity is almost always way overdone. There could be some 35+ dbz banding tomorrow morning but it's unlikely that it will cover 100 miles in latitude. Looking at some of the snow banding already, this is going to pack a punch for somebody if the banding stays onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 4k band is deff 1-3" an hour. Whoever gets under than for a few hours will have nice totals Don't mean to be a downer... but the 4k NAM sim reflectivity is almost always way overdone. There could be some 35+ dbz banding tomorrow morning but it's unlikely that it will cover 100 miles in latitude. Eh I don't know about that....it is almost always off with exactly where it will set up by about 50-100 miles at least....but when it puts together a super band (this not being as much of a super band as in some of the storms the last few years)....it often does have the right idea in that it will form one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.