atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I strongly disagree with it. What is your reasoning? ECM with in 72 hrs is virtually unbeatable.. NAM is horrible in the longer range of that model run..GFS has been oscillating back and forth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gotta go with doctor no...usually correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 At 72 hours as the Polar Vortex is swinging ENE and it depresses the Height field in the SE . The difference in the modeling we are going to see over the next 48 hours is will be where exactly the pulse ends up . That will create the boundary , too strong a push SE with the PV its a WHIFF a little less pressure and it " may " snow . I don't like these set ups because they don't like to break our way . Without help in the Atlantic , you are cold and dry or " warmer and wet " . No doubt its cold and the 12z Euro really ices New England next weekend . But lets hope as the PV leaves just maybe something can trail it out and send it on its way before we get zonal for a few days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What is your reasoning? ECM with in 72 hrs is virtually unbeatable.. NAM is horrible in the longer range of that model run..GFS has been oscillating back and forth... It was beatable within 12 hours last night. Snywx is still waiting for his 6 inches. No model is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I strongly disagree with it. why because it doesnt show your favorable outcome?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It was beatable within 12 hours last night. Snywx is still waiting for his 6 inches. No model is perfect. If one goes off those snow maps from the weather models they are always going to be disappointed.. one has to be able to decipher between thicknesses and frontal timing with precipitation instead of relying on those snow maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 why because it doesnt show your favorable outcome?? Hey ace! Where have you been? It's been negative around here even without you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If one goes off those snow maps from the weather models they are always going to be disappointed.. one has to be able to decipher between thicknesses and frontal timing with precipitation instead of relying on those snow maps... They were forecasted to get several inches, so it's not like just the Euro showed it, it was being predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 They were forecasted to get several inches, so it's not like just the Euro showed it, it was being predicted. I understand that but to me the models were pretty clear that the thicknesses were going to remain pretty high along with the surface temps until after the precipitation moved thru. Heck we did not even drop down here any lower then like 34 degrees and that was not till early morning long after the precipitation was thru... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I understand that but to me the models were pretty clear that the thicknesses were going to remain pretty high along with the surface temps until after the precipitation moved thru. Heck we did not even drop down here any lower then like 34 degrees and that was not till early morning long after the precipitation was thru... Yet the models and forecasts for called for several inches of accumulating snow. That's why I'm saying you can't really discount anything, whether they show snow or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z Nam is more east. Looks like CNJ to Philly does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It was beatable within 12 hours last night. Snywx is still waiting for his 6 inches. No model is perfect. Exactly.... Every model did horrific last night. Rgem was probably the most accurate and it still printed out a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I understand that but to me the models were pretty clear that the thicknesses were going to remain pretty high along with the surface temps until after the precipitation moved thru. Heck we did not even drop down here any lower then like 34 degrees and that was not till early morning long after the precipitation was thru... Upton had us receiving 2-4" as well.. It wasn't that simple dude.. When all guidance leans a certain way you are not gonna just dismiss it. You can't find a 3" snow report unless you are in C or W PA. Most places in New england got nothing to 2" and this includes higher elevations. Bottomline is that last nights event was a bust. Plain and simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 why because it doesnt show your favorable outcome?? No, because it often doesn't see smaller events and the model is not as perfect as everyone thinks it is. It can be great at more large scale storms, but I still remember that huge bust on that coastal storm it was showing. I also think the models are underestimating the SE ridging which remains potent after the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Upton says Euro solution is correct and gives us nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Upton says Euro solution is correct and gives us nothing Possible but there are a few more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mount Holly doesn't even mention the 3rd wave in its discussion -lol http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 My forecast would be sunny for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 My forecast would be sunny for TuesdayStuff like this shouldn't b on the board u don't find the dumb s in any other board . Sux to have read past this crapAnd if you post ur opinion just show why u think that u think it's Gona b sunny ok great. Tell us u think the heights in the south get suppressed and the max escapes or anything U post this passive aggressive stuff just to annoy pp it's a wx board no opinion is wrong if u can show a reason Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Stuff like this shouldn't b on the board u don't find the dumb s in any other board . Sux to have read past this crap And if you post ur opinion just show why u think that u think it's Gona b sunny ok great. Tell us u think the heights in the south get suppressed and the max escapes or anything U post this passive aggressive stuff just to annoy pp it's a wx board no opinion is wrong if u can show a reason Just my opinion Euro shows clear skies any wave looks far south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro shows clear skies any wave looks far south and east You do know that the euro isnt god, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Noreaster27 returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 You do know that the euro isnt god, right? I could toss the GFS idea easily with this event if its ensemble support was not as strong as it has been the last 2-3 runs and some of the typically suprressed models being more amped than the Euro/GGEM...I don't think this has potential to be a big area wide event but I-95 area East and South has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Noreaster27! Its pretty obvious too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The usually suppressed UKMET looks good for the event on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Noreaster27! Its pretty obvious too..I said that a couple months ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I said that a couple months ago lol. Wasn't there a theory that somebody else was A-L-E-X as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 0z nam is really nice for NYC. Nice little snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 .50 + for most all on Mr. Wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 0z nam is really nice for NYC. Nice little snow event. I have lost faith in most models short term. I am going to take the old saying, look outside. It does seems though we have a possible event early this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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