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December 10 -11 3rd Wave


NEG NAO

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Up in my location we missed our high of 7 degrees does anyone think that could help out more with snow ratios tomorrow? Possibly lower temps?

 

Probably not with ratios but it just emphasis how models often miss the extent of the low level cold, which is something to keep in mind with the storm this weekend. 

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I just spoke with a friend of mine and he seems to think if things pan out, lower Hudson valley/Nw jersey/ parts of Long island and souther Ct could do better than expected

One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter

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One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter

Well from a snow lovers perspective that would be nice, but hopefully there's enough guidance by the 00z runs for mets not to get slammed too bad

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One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter

I think the bust potential is especially huge with this event, in both directions.

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I think the bust potential is on the high side. In spots where 2 to 4 are expected if only 2 falls its a good forecast ,

Even if pp are upset

To me the bust potential is the amount of upward motion that mayb present and a mesoscale band hangs

And someone gets 20 to 1 ratios So if an odd location gets 10 off to our SW then that's a bust

That's what happened in Northeast DE Sunday. But they are rare and usually happen when ur

Not looking for it.

Think 2 to 4. Anything above is a bonus.

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One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter

The Mets in Philly are already feeling some heat over yesterday. Personally I think that it is unjustified. NO models had even a hint of what happened in Philly yesterday until Sunday 6z. The only saving grace for them was that it happened on a Sunday and there were not millions of people stuck at work and school

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You can see pretty easily that there will be a decent northern cutoff with this system or at least a sharp north-northwest edge to the best banding thanks to the incoming polar disturbance. The jet stream is really screaming along...this one should be in and out pretty quickly.

 

wv-animated.gif

 

really want to know where the best banding sets-up. hopefully on long island, down towards CNJ and to PHL/DC. but my gut is earthlight land will get some crazy deform band and thundersnow and ill be in subsidence :lmao:  :hug:

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The Mets in Philly are already feeling some heat over yesterday. Personally I think that it is unjustified. NO models had even a hint of what happened in Philly yesterday until Sunday 6z. The only saving grace for them was that it happened on a Sunday and there were not millions of people stuck at work and school

 

my buddy who lives in VA said they expected 1-3 inches and he sent me a picture of his GTI almost completely covered in snow. but as was previously stated no models really hammered home that deform banding properly :snowwindow:

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One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter

Would be something if it was in PHL. Mets would have to lay low in public with two busted events in three days

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Would be something if it was in PHL. Mets would have to lay low in public with two busted events in three days

 

nah, no matter what people still do look to forecasters for there weather. its amazing how many people I talk to everyday that expect every forecast to be exact because of all the "technology". need we or they be reminded of "initialization errors" or "convective feedback issues" with these multi-million dollar hunks of metal and circuitry :lmao: on paper we should have this figured out but mother nature knows how to keep on giving us the cold shoulder time and time again with the NAM taking the brunt of the punishment

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Banding will probably be heavy in spots -- but will it be transient?  We saw a relatively stationary band in terms of latitude the other day, leading to the higher totals.  Won't we be looking at a SW/NE oriented band that moves fairly quickly to the E tomorrow?  This sounds like a recipe for more even distribution of totals to me, compared with the event yesterday.

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Necessary?

Sorry, couldn't resist. Just remembering back to the days when I would take any opinion on the chances of a forecast busting on the low side as gospel. We all went through that phase so it's ok to laugh about it a little.

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Sorry, couldn't resist. Just remembering back to the days when I would take any opinion on the chances of a forecast busting on the low side as gospel. We all went through that phase so it's ok to laugh about it a little.

I'm personally thinking its gonna over perform in certain areas.. Depending how fast it's in and out

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