SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Up in my location we missed our high of 7 degrees does anyone think that could help out more with snow ratios tomorrow? Possibly lower temps? Probably not with ratios but it just emphasis how models often miss the extent of the low level cold, which is something to keep in mind with the storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think media outlets in general are gun shy over the weekends disasters. Most stations here going 1-3 2-4..... With the caveat of more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Probably not with ratios but it just emphasis how models often miss the extent of the low level cold, which is something to keep in mind with the storm this weekend. The highs definitely busted low but at the same time temps aren't dropping much at the moment so it doesn't necessarily mean much for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It means I get to keep my northern exposure snowfall going in to tomorrows event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just saw this on weatherspace.com seems bullish no? not really I'd move that 4"+ band to the east some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 lol TheWeatherSpace is a total freaking joke that's fronted by Kevin Martin. If this were the NE or Mid-Atl forums, you would be eaten alive for simply mentioning his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 not really I'd move that 4"+ band to the east some I just spoke with a friend of mine and he seems to think if things pan out, lower Hudson valley/Nw jersey/ parts of Long island and souther Ct could do better than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I just spoke with a friend of mine and he seems to think if things pan out, lower Hudson valley/Nw jersey/ parts of Long island and souther Ct could do better than expected One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter Well from a snow lovers perspective that would be nice, but hopefully there's enough guidance by the 00z runs for mets not to get slammed too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter I think the bust potential is especially huge with this event, in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 lol TheWeatherSpace is a total freaking joke that's fronted by Kevin Martin. If this were the NE or Mid-Atl forums, you would be eaten alive for simply mentioning his name. Indeed. Let's make that a policy for this forum as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think the bust potential is on the high side. In spots where 2 to 4 are expected if only 2 falls its a good forecast , Even if pp are upset To me the bust potential is the amount of upward motion that mayb present and a mesoscale band hangs And someone gets 20 to 1 ratios So if an odd location gets 10 off to our SW then that's a bust That's what happened in Northeast DE Sunday. But they are rare and usually happen when ur Not looking for it. Think 2 to 4. Anything above is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter The Mets in Philly are already feeling some heat over yesterday. Personally I think that it is unjustified. NO models had even a hint of what happened in Philly yesterday until Sunday 6z. The only saving grace for them was that it happened on a Sunday and there were not millions of people stuck at work and school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can see pretty easily that there will be a decent northern cutoff with this system or at least a sharp north-northwest edge to the best banding thanks to the incoming polar disturbance. The jet stream is really screaming along...this one should be in and out pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter not sure if serious or just making fun of someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You can see pretty easily that there will be a decent northern cutoff with this system or at least a sharp north-northwest edge to the best banding thanks to the incoming polar disturbance. The jet stream is really screaming along...this one should be in and out pretty quickly. really want to know where the best banding sets-up. hopefully on long island, down towards CNJ and to PHL/DC. but my gut is earthlight land will get some crazy deform band and thundersnow and ill be in subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my son's friends from kindergarten says that he's really liking lollipops to 16" in some sweet spots around NYC after seeing the latest WV imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The Mets in Philly are already feeling some heat over yesterday. Personally I think that it is unjustified. NO models had even a hint of what happened in Philly yesterday until Sunday 6z. The only saving grace for them was that it happened on a Sunday and there were not millions of people stuck at work and school my buddy who lives in VA said they expected 1-3 inches and he sent me a picture of his GTI almost completely covered in snow. but as was previously stated no models really hammered home that deform banding properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 not sure if serious or just making fun of someone Who,would he be making fun of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my Met friends said he has a real bad feeling about this event and that either DCA PHL or NYC will see crazy amounts which cause traffic snarls etc and will give all is meteorologists a black eye for the rest of the winter Would be something if it was in PHL. Mets would have to lay low in public with two busted events in three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 One of my son's friends from kindergarten says that he's really liking lollipops to 16" in some sweet spots around NYC after seeing the latest WV imagery. Necessary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Who,would he be making fun of? its a joke he could've said that thinking what you said was BS. all in all though lollipops have a good chance of being similar to what happened around philly I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Fast mover....that will prevent any real surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 its a joke he could've said that thinking what you said was BS. all in all though lollipops have a good chance of being similar to what happened around philly I think. Oh, I never said my friend was a met tho... Just another weather enthusiast taking a guess in the dark lol sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Would be something if it was in PHL. Mets would have to lay low in public with two busted events in three days nah, no matter what people still do look to forecasters for there weather. its amazing how many people I talk to everyday that expect every forecast to be exact because of all the "technology". need we or they be reminded of "initialization errors" or "convective feedback issues" with these multi-million dollar hunks of metal and circuitry on paper we should have this figured out but mother nature knows how to keep on giving us the cold shoulder time and time again with the NAM taking the brunt of the punishment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Banding will probably be heavy in spots -- but will it be transient? We saw a relatively stationary band in terms of latitude the other day, leading to the higher totals. Won't we be looking at a SW/NE oriented band that moves fairly quickly to the E tomorrow? This sounds like a recipe for more even distribution of totals to me, compared with the event yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Necessary? Sorry, couldn't resist. Just remembering back to the days when I would take any opinion on the chances of a forecast busting on the low side as gospel. We all went through that phase so it's ok to laugh about it a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Fast mover....that will prevent any real surprises. I agree think we have a good 5 - 8 hours with the peak between 10AM and 2PM. Should be a nice quick mover to usher in the Arctic chill for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Sorry, couldn't resist. Just remembering back to the days when I would take any opinion on the chances of a forecast busting on the low side as gospel. We all went through that phase so it's ok to laugh about it a little. I'm personally thinking its gonna over perform in certain areas.. Depending how fast it's in and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 New member here. Look forward to a hopefully fun filled and active winter! Hoping Poughkeepsie gets out of the snow hole from the last two events. Im craving a white landscape! Good luck to all for tomorrow's snow! I only expect an inch or less where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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