UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 They still seem to think 1-2 inches for most of orange northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is based on 10 to 1 ratio . If we get good snow growth and we can eek out 12 or 15 to 1 then u can increase this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Moist southerly flow starting to bubble up some showers in ETX and LA. That should blossom overnight and move NE towards the region. Also watching an area of light snow over SE Kansas... hoping that develops a 2nd lighter meso band to the NW of the main stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For anyone curious about the discrepancy in the NWS-Mt. Holly products, wherein the text says 3-5" for many locations, but the graphical maps say 4-6", they explain it in the AFD. Seems a little weak that they can't adjust the maps, but at least they explained it. WE LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR AND THAT`S WHAT IS IN THE WSW. OUR GRAPHICS ON THE WEB WILL DISPLAY 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH 3 TO 5 NOT BEING AN OPTION. LESS AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off must be the same people who designed the obama-care website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Moist southerly flow starting to bubble up some showers in ETX and LA. That should blossom overnight and move NE towards the region. Also watching an area of light snow over SE Kansas... hoping that develops a 2nd lighter meso band to the NW of the main stuff. Rgem showed a second moderate band develope in NE PA and push through the Hudson valley into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 BTW, anyone know of a decent service which sends email NWS alerts (including updates) for a zip code? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z GFS snow maps show 6-8" for just about the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is based on 10 to 1 ratio . If we get good snow growth and we can eek out 12 or 15 to 1 then u can increase this That shows 6" of snow for the entire Tri State area, based on 10:1 snowfall ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z GFS snow maps show 6-8" for just about the whole area When the GFS is consistently showing the most amped, wet solution it makes you at least have to pay attention. It's easy to dismiss it when it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z GFS snow maps show 6-8" for just about the whole area Wow...that would be pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z GFS snow maps show 6-8" for just about the whole area There's a 8-10" snowfall lollipop over PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There's a 8-10" snowfall lollipop over PHL. This is gonna be an exciting Nowcast...a shift by 25 miles could bring a significant difference in snows accum, for the good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What accounts for the dry slot over CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think some places could definitely get 8" out of this, I think snow should begin to overspread the area between 5am-8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think some places could definitely get 8" out of this, I think snow should begin to overspread the area between 5am-8am. The guys on the NYC metro board still seem unconvinced lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Rgem showed a second moderate band develope in NE PA and push through the Hudson valley into CT The one thing we do have on our side up here in the interior are cold temps both aloft & at the surface.. Should yield decent ratios. Maybe 12:1 or slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is gonna be an exciting Nowcast...a shift by 25 miles could bring a significant difference in snows accum, for the good or bad Look what happened yesterday in Philly.. No one saw that coming. Where those bands set up is anyones guess at this point. I would say anyone from NE PA to LI is still in the game as far as sig accumulation ( 6-8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The one thing we do have on our side up here in the interior are cold temps both aloft & at the surface.. Should yield decent ratios. Maybe 12:1 or slightly higher. I don't see any reason not to think most places above Rockland can squeeze in locally higher than 12.1... Might be some spotty surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Look what happened yesterday in Philly.. No one saw that coming. Where those bands set up is anyones guess at this point. I would say anyone from NE PA to LI is still in the game as far as sig accumulation ( 6-8") I'm still shocked most of lower Hudson valley not even a WWA... Gun shy from the last 2 waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't see any reason not to think most places above Rockland can squeeze in locally higher than 12.1... Might be some spotty surprises. We also have our common spots for terrain enhancement etc ( Monroe,Highland Mills area). That area usually squeezes out the max available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 We also have our common spots for terrain enhancement etc ( Monroe,Highland Mills area). That area usually squeezes out the max available. Yea Monroe, goshen, parts of washingtonvill usually do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The guys on the NYC metro board still seem unconvinced lol Always best to be conservative. 2-4" seems pretty reasonable everywhere, even based on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm still shocked most of lower Hudson valley not even a WWA... Gun shy from the last 2 waves? Yeah probably... I also see the GFS came in wetter as well. Its pretty safe to say that someone within the PHL/NYC area is gonna have a nice surprise. Who is anyones guess right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm still shocked most of lower Hudson valley not even a WWA... Gun shy from the last 2 waves? Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Look what happened yesterday in Philly.. No one saw that coming. Where those bands set up is anyones guess at this point. I would say anyone from NE PA to LI is still in the game as far as sig accumulation ( 6-8") I think 6-8" is pushing it. Remember, the GFS is the wettest model. 2-5" is probably the safest call now. After 0z, it can be bumped up a little if models get wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Agreed They're really gonna be screwed we all get hammered with no advisory.. After most saw nothing with 2 straight advisories lol ... I'm sure heads are spinning tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think 6-8" is pushing it. Remember, the GFS is the wettest model. 2-5" is probably the safest call now. After 0z, it can be bumped up a little if models get wetter. I think you misunderstood what I meant.. 6-8" will be localized in banding. Overall this looks like a 2-5" event for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm still shocked most of lower Hudson valley not even a WWA... Gun shy from the last 2 waves? Not sure what the WWA criteria is but think 1-3" would do it. One thing I know the local schools pay attention to the NWS WWA and WSW issaunces and without anything up in my County (Sussex) think many of school district will be having school and with bulk of snow falling whiule kids in school going to be an interesting day (early release would put them out in middle of it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Up in my location we missed our high of 7 degrees does anyone think that could help out more with snow ratios tomorrow? Possibly lower temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Up in my location we missed our high of 7 degrees does anyone think that could help out more with snow ratios tomorrow? Possibly lower temps? Snow ratios are not based on surface temps much. More so in the snow growth region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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