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December 10 -11 3rd Wave


NEG NAO

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Mt Holly went with a warning for Trenton to Philly, Mercer, SW NJ, SE PA, WWA for everyone else except Sussex, NJ. Only a 1" difference though for those under the warning as opposed to the advisory

Surprised not even a WWA for Sussex County.  Guess it will be a non-event up here, as I would think a couple inches would at least warrant a WWA.  Seems south and east is the place to be, pretty much the trend over the past few years.

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Surprised not even a WWA for Sussex County.  Guess it will be a non-event up here, as I would think a couple inches would at least warrant a WWA.  Seems south and east is the place to be, pretty much the trend over the past few years.

Generally 1-3" doesn't seem to warrant a WWA anymore, especially up in those areas more accustomed to snow.

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Surprised not even a WWA for Sussex County. Guess it will be a non-event up here, as I would think a couple inches would at least warrant a WWA. Seems south and east is the place to be, pretty much the trend over the past few years.

I really wouldn't read too much into it... It's gonna depend on where the radar sets up tomorrow and at this point the moderate band could be south of NYC, north of NYC or directly over NYC... I'm north of Sussex and I'm forecasted at 1-3 so

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Warnings for the Philly area

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-101015-
/O.COR.KPHI.WS.W.0009.131210T1100Z-131210T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
353 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN
  NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
  JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOWFALL.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...BEGINNING BY DAWN TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
  AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL TAPER BY DUSK TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO SEVERE TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING
  COMMUTE. ICY ROADS AFTER THE SNOW...SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
  BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY...AND LAST FOR A FEW DAYS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

 

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hires_ref_streak_east_24.png

Sim Radar , shows that band through the entire region for 4 hrs plus , these are the types of returns that yield 1 to 2 inches per hour.  ( with lighter bands before and after . )

Not saying its gona happen , but still a pretty intense look.

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Disaster? Yea...if you listen to the few people that simply go by statistics, which can always burn you. You can look for my earlier posts from later November, but the cold has been impressive from the start and we are right where one wants to be in an -EPO where the battle ground lays. Perfect example of people moaning and groaning about the real cold staying in the Midwest, but not where the precip falls. I will say that the pattern looks to flop/collapse mid-Month, but by that time, seasonal average take over and the PNA will likley go positive while NAO remains positive. Cold and dry for Christmas?

 

A 2-4" storm would be great for a month that was originally supposed to be a disaster. Despite the +AO and +NAO and all the talk of no blocking, there are still ways for us to get cold and snow. The near record breaking -EPO did the trick this time. 

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Disaster? Yea...if you listen to the few people that simply go by statistics, which can always burn you. You can look for my earlier posts from later November, but the cold has been impressive from the start and we are right where one wants to be in an -EPO where the battle ground lays. Perfect example of people moaning and groaning about the real cold staying in the Midwest, but not where the precip falls. I will say that the pattern looks to flop/collapse mid-Month, but by that time, seasonal average take over and the PNA will likley go positive while NAO remains positive. Cold and dry for Christmas?

Lots of different scenarios being explained these next couple weeks. Either way i dont think winter overall will be going anywhere anytime soon. Im hoping for a weak el nino to develop come 2014 but think that may be wishful thinking haha

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For anyone curious about the discrepancy in the NWS-Mt. Holly products, wherein the text says 3-5" for many locations, but the graphical maps say 4-6", they explain it in the AFD.  Seems a little weak that they can't adjust the maps, but at least they explained it. 

 

WE LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR AND THAT`S WHAT IS IN
THE WSW. OUR GRAPHICS ON THE WEB WILL DISPLAY 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH 3
TO 5 NOT BEING AN OPTION. LESS AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES, THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off
 

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