TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Box throwing in the towel pretty early for your neighbors in southern New England. 1-2 is the forecast for the whole area. Anybody think that could be a bit low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ah I think there criteria is 4 inches or greater ? South of Mercer and Monmouth Counties is 4" for warning criteria. Mercer and Monmouth on north is 6" for 12 hour warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Mt Holly went with a warning for Trenton to Philly, Mercer, SW NJ, SE PA, WWA for everyone else except Sussex, NJ. Only a 1" difference though for those under the warning as opposed to the advisory Surprised not even a WWA for Sussex County. Guess it will be a non-event up here, as I would think a couple inches would at least warrant a WWA. Seems south and east is the place to be, pretty much the trend over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Surprised not even a WWA for Sussex County. Guess it will be a non-event up here, as I would think a couple inches would at least warrant a WWA. Seems south and east is the place to be, pretty much the trend over the past few years. Generally 1-3" doesn't seem to warrant a WWA anymore, especially up in those areas more accustomed to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 1996 TWC weather board that was my first interaction with other weenies i'm getting out my snowgoggles. Oh yeah my grammar still sucks after all these years.Amazed at that snow band setting up LOL see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Surprised not even a WWA for Sussex County. Guess it will be a non-event up here, as I would think a couple inches would at least warrant a WWA. Seems south and east is the place to be, pretty much the trend over the past few years. I really wouldn't read too much into it... It's gonna depend on where the radar sets up tomorrow and at this point the moderate band could be south of NYC, north of NYC or directly over NYC... I'm north of Sussex and I'm forecasted at 1-3 so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Warnings for the Philly area URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ353 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-101015-/O.COR.KPHI.WS.W.0009.131210T1100Z-131210T2200Z/NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN353 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AMTO 5 PM EST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOWFALL.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.* TIMING...BEGINNING BY DAWN TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL TAPER BY DUSK TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO SEVERE TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ICY ROADS AFTER THE SNOW...SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE TUESDAY...AND LAST FOR A FEW DAYS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wwa 3-5 point and click says 3-5" their WWA and map says 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Sim Radar , shows that band through the entire region for 4 hrs plus , these are the types of returns that yield 1 to 2 inches per hour. ( with lighter bands before and after . ) Not saying its gona happen , but still a pretty intense look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Old map They were both just updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 point and click says 3-5" their WWA and map says 2-4" Thats pretty common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Old map They were both just updated Maybe my cache is stuck but on the new mt holly map phl is in 4-6". Map I am seeing has zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe my cache is stuck but on the new mt holly map phl is in 4-6". Map I am seeing has zero. The map I posted shows 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe my cache is stuck but on the new mt holly map phl is in 4-6". Map I am seeing has zero. The map I posted shows 4-6 Yep cache issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM noticeably NW of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Box throwing in the towel pretty early for your neighbors in southern New England. 1-2 is the forecast for the whole area. Anybody think that could be a bit low? it's only going to get so far north....how far north is the big question-I see a quick cutoff on the northern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 My point and click from Mt. Holly now says 2-4" which matches the graphic perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 it's only going to get so far north....how far north is the big question-I see a quick cutoff on the northern fringe Oh I understand. But I'm in southeast ma, I guess they are going with a euro solution, that's the only thing that supports 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM noticeably NW of 12z. I think we're finally coming to a consensus on a light to moderate event for most of the area. If you average everything out, 2-5" looks good. The biggest question for NW of the city is how far the banding signatures can make it up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM noticeably NW of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It looks like a decent 2-5 inch event with some lollipops of 6-7 in. Not a bad start to winter whatsoever. PHL will have already met their annual total snowfall average before Christmas at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 A 2-4" storm would be great for a month that was originally supposed to be a disaster. Despite the +AO and +NAO and all the talk of no blocking, there are still ways for us to get cold and snow. The near record breaking -EPO did the trick this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like long island may be in some of the lollipop amounts. Hope it works out that way. Encouraging trends to say the least today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Disaster? Yea...if you listen to the few people that simply go by statistics, which can always burn you. You can look for my earlier posts from later November, but the cold has been impressive from the start and we are right where one wants to be in an -EPO where the battle ground lays. Perfect example of people moaning and groaning about the real cold staying in the Midwest, but not where the precip falls. I will say that the pattern looks to flop/collapse mid-Month, but by that time, seasonal average take over and the PNA will likley go positive while NAO remains positive. Cold and dry for Christmas? A 2-4" storm would be great for a month that was originally supposed to be a disaster. Despite the +AO and +NAO and all the talk of no blocking, there are still ways for us to get cold and snow. The near record breaking -EPO did the trick this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Disaster? Yea...if you listen to the few people that simply go by statistics, which can always burn you. You can look for my earlier posts from later November, but the cold has been impressive from the start and we are right where one wants to be in an -EPO where the battle ground lays. Perfect example of people moaning and groaning about the real cold staying in the Midwest, but not where the precip falls. I will say that the pattern looks to flop/collapse mid-Month, but by that time, seasonal average take over and the PNA will likley go positive while NAO remains positive. Cold and dry for Christmas? Lots of different scenarios being explained these next couple weeks. Either way i dont think winter overall will be going anywhere anytime soon. Im hoping for a weak el nino to develop come 2014 but think that may be wishful thinking haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gfs hold serve. Jackpots Long Island and phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For anyone curious about the discrepancy in the NWS-Mt. Holly products, wherein the text says 3-5" for many locations, but the graphical maps say 4-6", they explain it in the AFD. Seems a little weak that they can't adjust the maps, but at least they explained it. WE LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR AND THAT`S WHAT IS INTHE WSW. OUR GRAPHICS ON THE WEB WILL DISPLAY 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH 3TO 5 NOT BEING AN OPTION. LESS AMOUNTS SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE FARNORTHWESTERN ZONES, THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gfs hold serve. Jackpots Long Island and phl Looks like close to a half inch of liquid lined up along I-95. That would probably yield 6-8" given snowgrowth and ratios. Still the outlier though-hopefully other models come towards this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 First WWA for me this Winter from NWS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. Finally, it's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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