IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Keep it simple the trend is your friend it snowed twice already very nice for my area .Climatology and Dr. Joel Sobel always says central park historically will get measurable snow after the 22nd of this month. More will be revealed maybe tommorrow. Central Park already got .1" of snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NAM further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The weenie band seems to be more centered around south central NJ this go around on the NAM... Basically over Ocean County into NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 4k will be much better to use for the position of the band imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 4k will be much better to use for the position of the band imo For sure. The position of the heavier precip is def. concentrated further South on this run... Let's see what the 4K says. Still a crapshoot and wonder what kind of effect elevation, etc. will have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Southern NJ into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Southern NJ into LI. It still prob shows 2 for the city and east 4 cnj and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The difference for KNYC is negligible. 0.39 at 12z would be surprised if it was less than 0.3-0.35 this go round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The NAM is still 0.25"+ for everyone outside of northern Sussex and Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'd say 2-5" of snow for the Western Tri State area and 3-6" of snow for the Eastern Tri State Area is a pretty good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'd be worried if you are on the northern edges of this, as subsidence will likely cut down on snow amounts more than the models show. The air is also very dry. It might well go from a few or 4 inches to little in not a very long distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z 4k NAM is further NW with the band. Setting up over the Poconos at hour 18. Just not as intense as the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'd say 2-5" of snow for the Western Tri State area and 3-6" of snow for the Eastern Tri State Area is a pretty good bet. Yeh , Im just saying what I thnk the NAM shows . I wouldn't be shocked if the city got 4 - and someone got 6 . but that's just depend on where the lift sets up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hour 19 weenie band setting up right over NNJ again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 4K NAM is really very small differences from 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hour 19 weenie band setting up right over NNJ again That band seems to have set up more northeast than it was previously model.. As opposed to a more east to west orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weenie band moves east with its strength more easily on 18z 4kNAM. Thats a hell of a band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Holding together better this run. South Jersey is going to get whacked but we're all in heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hour 19 weenie band setting up right over NNJ again Good call by User13. I wonder if elevation / dynamics will cause it to be more NW than the op as depcited here w/ the 4K... I'm sure the mets can help us here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Southwest NJ has the higher totals this run because the band pivots a bit. We don't get missed by the band, it's just more intense the further SW you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 At 17z (Noon) We're almost in a CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weenie band moves east with its strength more easily on 18z 4kNAM. Thats a hell of a band The frontogenesis max didn't weaken and shifted east on the 12z run as well. This doesn't seem to be a band that sits on one place for hours. Keep in mind also that the system as a whole is hauling east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Solid accumulating snows lasting till around 4:00 in the afternoon. Snow maps show a general 3-6" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That band is probably going to produce high rates and last 1-3 hours over any one area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm gonna need to see a shrink after these last 4 days if tomorrow duds hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That band is probably going to produce high rates and last 1-3 hours over any one area. Yea it will be cool to see. With theses bands it comes down to location location location lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm gonna need to see a shrink after these last 4 days if tomorrow duds hahaha If you're in Orange County it's going to be a close one. Hopefully the band gets far enough north to swipe you for a while because otherwise, I'm not sure there will be all that much north of this band. It looks a good bit more favorable closer to the city and coast but nothing is resolved yet-it's coming down more to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 At 17z (Noon) We're almost in a CCB what is a CCB ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 At 17z (Noon) We're almost in a CCB what is a CCB ? Cold conveyor belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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