Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What time approx it's predicted for the event to start for NYC Midtown if it happens? Predicted start time is around 8-9am although would not be surprised for it go begin around 12z (7am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gonna be another Nowcast for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Darn SPC WRF with another failed 12Z run, always when we really want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 8AM +/1 h hour. Predicted start time is around 8-9am although would not be surprised for it go begin around 12z (7am) Thanks!! If moderate snow shows up before the morning commute, will be great to stay at home and watch it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You mean the 0.50". 0.25"+ is north of KMMU I think that includes a tenth or two from today. And those graphics are wetter than E-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 To be fair it has waffled over 4 runs. It went lighter heavier heavier lighter from 15, 21, 3, to 9z. 15z will be important but I don't hold that much stock with the SREF with all of the other guidance (even the NAVGEM with 0.4) showing a solid 0.2+ I'll be looking for a shift NW next cycle, and a few more weenie runs well to the NW to balance the offshore suppressed members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Anyone know why there'd be a tongue of <1" on the north shore of LI on Upton's map? Is that a surface temp concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'll be looking for a shift NW next cycle, and a few more weenie runs well to the NW to balance the offshore suppressed members. Agreed. You'd still want to the see the SREF on board. ARW ensemble members have been much more suppressed than the others over the last 24 hours FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Anyone know why there'd be a tongue of <1" on the north shore of LI on Upton's map? Is that a surface temp concern? No, lesser QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Anyone know why there'd be a tongue of <1" on the north shore of LI on Upton's map? Is that a surface temp concern? Cancel - just checked the updated forecast, looks like they changed the forecast to rain along the north shore (zip 11792). Tuesday Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then rain. High near 38. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 SREF should tick northwest because it goes off previous cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM for this system Looks like a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Cancel - just checked the updated forecast, looks like they changed the forecast to rain along the north shore (zip 11792). Tuesday Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then rain. High near 38. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. That would have to be based on modeled surface temps (mostly GFS) and very light qpf. Otherwise I am not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Cancel - just checked the updated forecast, looks like they changed the forecast to rain along the north shore (zip 11792). Tuesday Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then rain. High near 38. Northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Upton is almost always late to the party in any situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 euro is 2-4 at 12z. .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro looks slightly improved from last night and drastic improvement from 12z yesterday. Trend has been our friend. Still think general 2-4 is good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 12z Euro has the -12C 850mb contour over KMMU at the height of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The best bet right now is probably 2-5", more toward 5" along the coast and 2" well inland. It's good that the Euro came NW a bit-makes it more likely the wet models aren't out to lunch. All the models now show at least accumulating snow tomorrow, some show a moderate event. Hard to ignore the GFS showing a borderline SECS, but the best bet right now is to take the average of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS now has my town going to rain after 11AM and accumulations less than one inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That would have to be based on modeled surface temps (mostly GFS) and very light qpf. Otherwise I am not seeing it. Agreed. Unfortunate their public forecast would show rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Upton is almost always late to the party in any situation Nah, they are usually pretty good. Maybe today is the office Christmas party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nah, they are usually pretty good. Maybe today is the office Christmas party. If so they should've put " updated forecast coming after the electric slide and AFD soon to follow" haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What does the EURO show for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For NYC: RGEM: 0.23 Euro: 0.19 GGEM: 0.28 (7mm) NAM:0.39 GFS: 0.50 NAVGEM: ~0.40 SREF: ~0.20 UKMET: ~0.20 GEFS: ~0.40 Pretty decent consensus for LE of around 0.2-0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Will have to see if another megaband sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For NYC: RGEM: 0.23 Euro: 0.19 GGEM: 0.28 (7mm) NAM:0.39 GFS: 0.50 NAVGEM: ~0.40 SREF: ~0.20 UKMET: ~0.20 GEFS: ~0.40 Pretty decent consensus for LE of around 0.2-0.4 Actual mean is 0.31" based off those numbers. So using 12:1 ratios that's 3.72". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The version of the ECMWF that I have doesn't have high enough resolution to depict any mesoscale banding features but I would assume a band probably exists on the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Actual mean is 0.31" based off those numbers. So using 12:1 ratios that's 3.72". Ya I would bet that KNYC is within 0.5 of that if I had to guess. I would take the under right now though. Too worried about duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ya I would bet that KNYC is within 0.5 of that if I had to guess. I would take the under right now though. Too worried about duration. 8 hours is sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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