TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is a setup where you could be unlucky. Also it is a setup where someone somewhere could pull a 9 or 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That's a dangerous thing to do in a fragile setup like this. Basically anywhere in the 2 to 4 between Morris and Ocean cty could locally be 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I am surprised Bill Evans is trying to nail down that band so early On the other hand its good to communicate that such a band is,likely somewhere in the area...even if confidence of placement isnt super high.yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Enjoyment of this event is greatly enhanced by occurring at the start of a multi day cold snap. 2-4" could keep the ground white through the weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Enjoyment of this event is greatly enhanced by occurring at the start of a multi day cold snap. 2-4" could keep the ground white through the weekend.. that sort of thing lets you know winter is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Enjoyment of this event is greatly enhanced by occurring at the start of a multi day cold snap. 2-4" could keep the ground white through the weekend.. Fixed Enjoyment of this event is greatly enhanced by the occurring at the start of sunrise. 4-6" could keep the ground white through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On the other hand its good to communicate that such a band is,likely somewhere in the area...even if confidence of placement isnt super high.yet Also after yesterdays storm 6"+ totals could be likely in the area that would get under that bend should the best forcing/ lift occur in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By the end were talking about much higher ratios but it does seem to average around 12:1 Ratios will be around 10-12:1 and those under the deform band that develops tommorow i feel confident will make a run at 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 On the other hand its good to communicate that such a band is,likely somewhere in the area...even if confidence of placement isnt super high.yet I think it's a solid forecast. Looks good to me, unless the euro comes in dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 When you look closer at the 12z GFS, the potential is definitely there for some very high rates for a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The GFS has a nice event for us with close to 5" for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Still afraid to go too crazy on amounts, sitting with a 2-3 forecast still as of now, lowering QPF of the models due to fast movement and the W-NW wind flow also is odd, not many times I've seen that here for a snow event, could potentially have a minor downslope impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Still afraid to go too crazy on amounts, sitting with a 2-3 forecast still as of now, lowering QPF of the models due to fast movement and the W-NW wind flow also is odd, not many times I've seen that here for a snow event, could potentially have a minor downslope impact. Yeh man , I agree I like 3 - 4 for most maxes . Someone could see 6 - but thats isolated , not area wide . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GEFS mean is 0.25-0.50" area wide. 850mb freezing line stays 100+miles southeast of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Fixed Enjoyment of this event is greatly enhanced by the occurring at the start of sunrise. 4-6" could keep the ground white through the weekend. Looks like you could be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GEFS is about 0.4 for NYC metro (more SE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM still focuses the heaviest snow from the DC to Philly area but overall doesn't look to dissimilar to the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS talking Rain/snow SS of LI Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z rgem shows a moderate band develop over northern pa and push through lower hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 09z SREF members were pretty supressed, especially the ARW members. And it has pretty low 1" probs. Plenty of reason to be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 09z SREF members were pretty supressed, especially the ARW members. And it has pretty low 1" probs. Plenty of reason to be cautious. The SREF's are terrible at depicting mesoscale banding features. People love to dismiss the SREF's when they are wet and hump them when they are dry. The mean was very close to the rest of the guidance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 09z SREF members were pretty supressed, especially the ARW members. And it has pretty low 1" probs. Plenty of reason to be cautious. I'd watch the RGEM and the RRR closely. The SREF didn't have a good track record for yesterday's wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Upton going conservative. I don't mind the snow forecast, the QPF forecast looks low though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The SREF's are terrible at depicting mesoscale banding features. People love to dismiss the SREF's when they are wet and hump them when they are dry. The mean was very close to the rest of the guidance anyway. The SREF has not done well recently. But it's much drier than the RGEM, NAM, and GFS. >.25" QPF is confined to SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The SREF has not done well recently. But it's much drier than the RGEM, NAM, and GFS. >.25" QPF is confined to SE NJ. You mean the 0.50". 0.25"+ is north of KMMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Craig Allen is going with 3-6 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What time approx it's predicted for the event to start for NYC Midtown if it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The SREF has not done well recently. But it's much drier than the RGEM, NAM, and GFS. >.25" QPF is confined to SE NJ. To be fair it has waffled over 4 runs. It went lighter heavier heavier lighter from 15, 21, 3, to 9z. 15z will be important but I don't hold that much stock with the SREF with all of the other guidance (even the NAVGEM with 0.4) showing a solid 0.2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Craig Allen is going with 3-6 inches for the area. Used to sit next to him at Islander games. Also lives in my hometown (Merrick). Great meteorologist really respect his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What time approx it's predicted for the event to start for NYC Midtown if it happens? 8AM +/1 h hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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