IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 never trust snow maps Yeah, considering that they only run on the average 10:1 ratio. We may get 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah, considering that they only run on the average 10:1 ratio. We may get 12:1. Yup best snow growth higher in column than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 never trust snow maps Many will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 How bout bufkit or soundings? Temps below freezing and 0.5 LE. How much would you expect? 0.5" QPF still seems like a lot to me given the fast speed of the system (it would start by 6-7am and be done by 2-3pm) but the GFS showing it and ramping up each run means you at least have to pay attention. Verbatim it would probably be 4-7" areawide. Maybe ratios could help bring out a spot 8" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know how you could say that a 6-8 hour period of accumulating snow is not likely at this point. Someone is going to get hammered where that band sets up. Some will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 0.5" QPF still seems like a lot to me given the fast speed of the system (it would start by 6-7am and be done by 2-3pm) but the GFS showing it and ramping up each run means you at least have to pay attention. Verbatim it would probably be 4-7" areawide. Maybe ratios could help bring out a spot 8" total. Just to be clear jm, I have an expectation but I was asking forky bc he likes to say vague tidbits of info without quantifying. I think that regardless of what the GFS shows we are in for a general 2-5in event. Someone may crack 6. I'm being conservative based on the short duration but there is certainly room to bust low. Either way it looks like our first regionwide minor to moderate accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 December 10th's record snowfall at KNYC is one of the lower ones for December (1.3" set in 1932). Seems increasingly likely that will be broken tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know how you could say that a 6-8 hour period of accumulating snow is not likely at this point. Someone is going to get hammered where that band sets up. Some will be disappointed. Setups that are dependent on a mega snow band developing are always quite fragile and subject to either a lot of disappointment or joy. The best thing to do now is temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Do we have any analogs for tomorrows event?..I'm trying to think of quick hitting events (less than 8 hours) that still manage to dump 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 use cross sections for determining ratios: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Do we have any analogs for tomorrows event?..I'm trying to think of quick hitting events (less than 8 hours) that still manage to dump 3-6"Ummmmm... Yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Setups that are dependent on a mega snow band developing are always quite fragile and subject to either a lot of disappointment or joy. The best thing to do now is temper expectations. Does the gfs show the snow band? I'm pretty sure it has a pretty widespread 3-5" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ummmmm... Yesterday? No that was more like 10" in 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Forky I'm actually curious to what your forecast is because I also think you're often correct even if you don't phrase things the way I'd like. Looks like the best omega is at aroun 600mb and temps are around -8 at that level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Does the gfs show the snow band? I'm pretty sure it has a pretty widespread 3-5" snowfall Low Res Global model , Would not see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 use cross sections for determining ratios: Ratios are always a pain, they say don't use surface temps but they definitely have some impact. based on 700mn temps and surface in this event I think its gonna be near 12 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By the looks of this, we may decent snowgrowth. BTW, thanks for the useful chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Do we have any analogs for tomorrows event?..I'm trying to think of quick hitting events (less than 8 hours) that still manage to dump 3-6" 2/3/96...that dropped 6-10 inches but much colder at the surface...some people pointed out 12/5/02 but I don't agree, that had a more sexy phase at 500mb than this does....the 2/3/96 event was sort of a wave or weaker surface low on a good thermal gradient riding northeast up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By the looks of this, we may have somewhat poor snowgrowth. I want to see what the soundings look like further NW, like for HPN. 850 temps are colder the further NW you make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By the looks of this, we may decent snowgrowth. BTW, thanks for the useful chart. looks nearly ideal to me after the first hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ratios are always a pain, they say don't use surface temps but they definitely have some impact. based on 700mn temps and surface in this event I think its gonna be near 12 to 1 Not that any of those maps made perfect sense to me but I also used your logic here and also came up with 12-1. I guess I deciphered it pretty accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not that any of those maps made perfect sense to me but I also used your logic here and also came up with 12-1. I guess I deciphered it pretty accurately. I would say that 70-80% of NYC winter snow events see ratios of about 12 to 1...I remember Nick Gregory saying that one time and it really seems to be true, very occasionally we see 15-18 in a really cold air mass and late season we sometimes see 8 or 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 12z GFS has a tiny bit more s/w ridging than previous runs ahead of the s/w trof progged to move through the midwest tomorrow. I think there is still a little room to increase the lift/moisture on the NW flank, increase the surface reflection, and extend the duration. I have vague memories of a similar event about 10 years ago that looked like a 1-2" deal for NJ 36hours out that turned into a quick hitting 12" for BGM. The orientation and alignment of fronto bands can change at the last minute. Not going to happen this time. This is a much different synoptic setup than yesterday's DE/NJ surprise. Similar in that a narrow area could see a period of heavy snow. But that doesn't mean we should expect to greatly exceed model QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By the end were talking about much higher ratios but it does seem to average around 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 2/3/96...that dropped 6-10 inches but much colder at the surface...some people pointed out 12/5/02 but I don't agree, that had a more sexy phase at 500mb than this does....the 2/3/96 event was sort of a wave or weaker surface low on a good thermal gradient riding northeast up the coast. I was thinking more along the lines of 2/22/01. It was colder at the surface but a pretty good areawide 4-6" event in a fairly short time. Looks like many places got over 6" that storm due to the high ratios http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/22-Feb-01.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The 12z GFS has a tiny bit more s/w ridging than previous runs ahead of the s/w trof progged to move through the midwest tomorrow. I think there is still a little room to increase the lift/moisture on the NW flank, increase the surface reflection, and extend the duration. I have vague memories of a similar event about 10 years ago that looked like a 1-2" deal for NJ 36hours out that turned into a quick hitting 12" for BGM. The orientation and alignment of fronto bands can change at the last minute. Not going to happen this time. This is a much different synoptic setup than yesterday's DE/NJ surprise. Similar in that a narrow area could see a period of heavy snow. But that doesn't mean we should expect to greatly exceed model QPF. That event you're talking about I think occurred in the 01-02 winter in January it was a very fluky mesoscale band that formed over SRN Upstate NY, we did get our 1-3 here though I believe and DCA got pounded unexpectedly too, maybe had 4-6 inches, that was the only event of the 01-02 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I am surprised Bill Evans is trying to nail down that band so early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I am surprised Bill Evans is trying to nail down that band so early I hate it when they try that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I am surprised Bill Evans is trying to nail down that band so early That's a dangerous thing to do in a fragile setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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