Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I remember...but it was still hilarious. My bag of tricks is pretty small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 My bag of tricks is pretty small TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Until they hire Shanascam Never considered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone wanna play the odds game? Perfect weenie game for situations like this! Total Bust = 50% 1-2 = 15% 3-4 = 25% 5+ = 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone wanna play the odds game? Perfect weenie game for situations like this! Total Bust = 50% 1-2 = 15% 3-4 = 25% 5+ = 10% Odds require you to know number of successful outcomes and number of failures. They aren't percentages, they're based on actual data, and not on hunches. That is, if we're going to play the perfect game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The comment in the storm thread is one to ponder. I thought inside 3 days the OP is what to look at. Not the ensembles. Does that apply in these situations where there isn't run to run consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The comment in the storm thread is one to ponder. I thought inside 3 days the OP is what to look at. Not the ensembles. Does that apply in these situations where there isn't run to run consistency? I answered it as best as I'm able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Odds game: 90% chance of bust 10% chance of 10+" It's a boom or bust town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The comment in the storm thread is one to ponder. I thought inside 3 days the OP is what to look at. Not the ensembles. Does that apply in these situations where there isn't run to run consistency? As a weenie, I suggest you just look at whatever gives you the most snow like the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Odds game: 90% chance of bust 10% chance of 10+" It's a boom or bust town. For DCA that would be 2 inches rather than 10, but point still stands. We don't get areawide "normal" storms anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Odds require you to know number of successful outcomes and number of failures. They aren't percentages, they're based on actual data, and not on hunches. That is, if we're going to play the perfect game. Technically its a guessing game. The Odds Game sounds better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TWC is going to call this next storm Hercules if it happens. Good enough reason to root against it hitting us. I do not think you will jinx this one, time to bring out a classic mid-atlantic meme, #faithintheflakes or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SOP in the met world these days is model hugging. It's kind of a sad state of affairs. I blame social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 As a weenie, I suggest you just look at whatever gives you the most snow like the rest of us. Rule #2 in the handbook. Rule #1 is to toss any run that doesn't show the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I blame social media.It's to blame for most things so sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I almost never look at the ensembles. I'm such a bad weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Rule #3 is to take a drink for every ensemble that shows a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Dammit, if I can't have playoff football, give me some big snowstorms to cheer about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I almost never look at the ensembles. I'm such a bad weenie. you dont need to look cause winterwxluver takes care of the leg work for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Dammit, if I can't have playoff football, give me some big snowstorms to cheer about.... This thread was more fun when we were talking about poo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TWC is going to call this next storm Hercules if it happens. Good enough reason to root against it hitting us. http://youtu.be/yt9vHuxjIME?t=10s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Rule #3 is to take a drink for every ensemble that shows a HECS Ooooph....I'm no lightweight but one season of that game ends with a trip to betty ford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you dont need to look cause winterwxluver takes care of the leg work for ya.Haha true. I do glance at the mean now and then but indiv members almost exclusively if they are posted here and never otherwise. Tho I am tempted to fish out the wx bell on Euro that Bob has mentioned. I like your odds btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope Philly gets like 12" on Friday and it's about 15F at kickoff against the Saints on Saturday night. Or just 35 and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope Philly gets like 12" on Friday and it's about 15F at kickoff against the Saints on Saturday night. Or just 35 and partly cloudy. Saints are in serious trouble in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Speaking of Nemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Haha true. I do glance at the mean now and then but indiv members almost exclusively if they are posted here and never otherwise. Tho I am tempted to fish out the wx bell on Euro that Bob has mentioned. I like your odds btw. Ask and ye shall receive. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php# Click eps precip. option for snow or precip totals for all the local metar sites. You have to manually count the members. Very cool output now that I'm used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ^I'd go more like 12-18" for Boston, but otherwise that all looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If we break the streak I could care less what happens north. If we don't I'm renting brine trucks and flame throwers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ask and ye shall receive. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php# Click eps precip. option for snow or precip totals for all the local metar sites. You have to manually count the members. Very cool output now that I'm used to it. Nice, thanks. I'm going with #15 on snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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