WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I find it ironic that when I look at maps at instant weather, the ad displayed above rack map says "Fight Addiction". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's just kind of like random big bullseyes of precip that shouldn't be as big or where they are. The model takes that and then re-jiggers the atmosphere (500mb etc) to assume it's real which can mess with other things down the line. In this case I'm not sure what they are seeing. Though it is pretty fast. Maybe they're focusing on the lead wave v the trailer. I dunno. There might be some feedback issues there. The QPF looks a bit odd by like 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 SOP in the met world these days is model hugging. It's kind of a sad state of affairs. I think that models have made some overconfident in definitive solutions at med-long leads. We're just not there yet. Modeling has come a long way but definitely nowhere near definitive forecasts for storms in fast moving flow with many moving parts. I'm not sure why it's so bad to say something like "the 18z is an outlier at this time but its solution is well within an envelope of possibilities" and move on. I'm sure DT loved seeing the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 More storms brewing pre-truncation on the 18z GFS, it's okay if you miss out on this one. I have my doubts about the upcoming system being a total non-event, flurries and light accum are guaranteed in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's just kind of like random big bullseyes of precip that shouldn't be as big or where they are. The model takes that and then re-jiggers the atmosphere (500mb etc) to assume it's real which can mess with other things down the line. In this case I'm not sure what they are seeing. Thanks. I've often wondered about those diamond shaped areas of super heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You are probably right because as we know living in this area setups like this rarely deliver a big storm here. Just be ready though if it does pan out like the Euro is saying, to take a good deal of ribbing. Send me pics of your tan lines please . I'm guessing a lot of people just think I'll say it won't snow no matter what. Plus there's the HECS before the coldest weather in 120 years to watch pretty quickly after. I think I'll make out fine either way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think that models have made some overconfident in definitive solutions at med-long leads. We're just not there yet. Modeling has come a long way but definitely nowhere near definitive forecasts for storms in fast moving flow with many moving parts. I'm not sure why it's so bad to say something like "the 18z is an outlier at this time but its solution is well within an envelope of possibilities" and move on. I'm sure DT loved seeing the latest run. He is probably ready to ban everyone from his FB account right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm guessing a lot of people just think I'll say it won't snow no matter what. Plus there's the HECS before the coldest weather in 120 years to watch pretty quickly after. I think I'll make out fine either way.. The sad thing is i will probably sleep like 2 hours a night for the next 10 days and have 1" to show for it. We all need serious help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think that models have made some overconfident in definitive solutions at med-long leads. We're just not there yet. Modeling has come a long way but definitely nowhere near definitive forecasts for storms in fast moving flow with many moving parts. I'm not sure why it's so bad to say something like "the 18z is an outlier at this time but its solution is well within an envelope of possibilities" and move on. I'm sure DT loved seeing the latest run. Yep.. plus now we have all these local and regional zooms with very specific info. I think the mind takes that and makes it more concrete than if you're looking at a small map and can't even tell where state boundaries are etc. I love wxbell maps and others like them but I'm pretty sure they are making a good number of forecasters worse just looking at forecasts recently. I'm surprised how even really good mets focus on run to run changes so much. In certain cases you have to when there are quick shifts but with many it's an every storm thing. Obviously moving to a non model forecast would be dumb but sometimes I wonder if you limited someone to like one suite a day compared to someone who saw every run every 6 hours.. who would have the better forecast in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yep.. plus now we have all these local and regional zooms with very specific info. I think the mind takes that and makes it more concrete than if you're looking at a small map and can't even tell where state boundaries are etc. I love wxbell maps and others like them but I'm pretty sure they are making a good number of forecasters worse just looking at forecasts recently. I'm surprised how even really good mets focus on run to run changes so much. In certain cases you have to when there are quick shifts but with many it's an every storm thing. Obviously moving to a non model forecast would be dumb but sometimes I wonder if you limited someone to like one suite a day compared to someone who saw every run every 6 hours.. who would have the better forecast in the end? Probably would. Especially outside of 4-5 days. Sometimes it's easier to be right at longer leads. Especially storms in the east with blocking and a dominant stream. Once you speed things up and have interaction it becomes more luck and less skill at longer leads. Those who nail 1-10 will declare pure genius that one time and people will remember them for it. The internet has made huge strides in making "all the world's a stage". Heck, I'm a major weenie and I know how to identify windows but know better than to say "big snow on the way in 8 days. stock up on liqour and beer". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Probably would. Especially outside of 4-5 days. Sometimes it's easier to be right at longer leads. Especially storms in the east with blocking and a dominant stream. Once you speed things up and have interaction it becomes more luck and less skill at longer leads. Those who nail 1-10 will declare pure genius that one time and people will remember them for it. The internet has made huge strides in making "all the world's a stage". Heck, I'm a major weenie and I know how to identify windows but know better than to say "big snow on the way in 8 days. stock up on liqour and beer". Stocking up on liquor and beer should be standard behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 "Could someone explain convective feedback? I see it mentioned all of the time with regard to models but have no idea what it means." One of the many excuses professionals use when a weather model doesn't show what they want it to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Oh darn, the GFS took away my imaginary snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Vikings fire head coach Leslie Frazier. Hey MN, leesburg, this is better news than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 frozen water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Vikings fire head coach Leslie Frazier. Hey MN, leesburg, this is better news than the euro. Until they hire Shanascam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 frozen water Says the guy who posted a 12 page model discussion of the 12 z gfs in FB...lol...Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Says the guy who posted a 12 page model discussion of the 12 z gfs in FB...lol...Dave and you posted in it LOL. even more funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 and you posted in it LOL. even more funny. I love frozen water!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TWC is going to call this next storm Hercules if it happens. Good enough reason to root against it hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm getting the impression that Bob thinks the dry slot solution is a very viable result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm getting the impression that Bob thinks the dry slot solution is a very viable result Lol- I must be getting my point across. But my inner weenie knows we're gettin hammered. At least Rockville on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TWC is going to call this next storm Hercules if it happens. Good enough reason to root against it hitting us. Fitting around here anyway since it's a Herculean task to get snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol- I must be getting my point across. But my inner weenie knows we're gettin hammered. At least Rockville on east TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Rolling eyes at TWC in case that wasn't clear. Silly names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TWC is going to call this next storm Hercules if it happens. Good enough reason to root against it hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Luv the avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Luv the avatar.Sadly it didn't work with Nemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sadly it didn't work with Nemo I remember...but it was still hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You can book a solution to this impending event where DC gets the joy and 40N takes the shaft, for the simple reason we're going up to NYC on the 2nd -- my daughter's never been there -- and this storm most assuredly -- and most uncharacteristically -- will sputter, cough, or go sleep with the fishes, and will never leave a calling card much north of TTN. So be of good cheer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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