December Banter Thread 2

[Bob Chill]

I enjoy model analysis but some of the back and forth between runs searching for the perfect alignment of the three-letter indices seems less than productive. The weather will still do whatever it wants.

I hear ya. Its best in these parts to look at a pattern and decide if it has any snow potential or zero snow potential. Except in special years we don't get close to perfect lw patterns.

Imo- from the 30th through the foreseeable future its a pattern that can produce snow. How and when is completely unresolved.

[WinterWxLuvr]

And the three letter indices (modeled indices mind you) aren't looking quite as rosy as they were a few days ago.

[Bob Chill]

I get the feeling that some are only interested in the 6" + type pattern and storm...so if it doesn't look like that then the pattern stinks. That's my impression anyway

Not me. I'm chasing 2". If it happens ill be pretty happy.

[Ian]

I enjoy model analysis but some of the back and forth between runs searching for the perfect alignment of the three-letter indices seems less than productive. The weather will still do whatever it wants.

 

How can you not like a lot of details on a range that has no skill on models?  I'm EXCITED about the 14 degree snow the models showed a few days ago even if it changed to rain and disappeared since then.

[Ian]

I get the feeling that some are only interested in the 6" + type pattern and storm...so if it doesn't look like that then the pattern stinks. That's my impression anyway

I think you're probably wrong. Just look how active it usually gets here for a storm that gives us three hours of snow. 

 

There are some very smart people here who are also big time snow weenies... so we just spend an inordinate time talking in great detail about snow that never happens.  If you don't fall into that camp you automatically get less respect than others and claims that you are chasing unrealistically large snow etc.

[Avdave]

its like watching a day10 severe on the models, same thing

How can you not like a lot of details on a range that has no skill on models?  I'm EXCITED about the 14 degree snow the models showed a few days ago even if it changed to rain and disappeared since then.

[Ian]

its like watching a day10 severe on the models, same thing

you've said this a few times but you're not right. i dunno what to tell you there.  if nothing else we never look that far out and there are like 5 of us who look out to maybe a week compared to several hundred with snow.  also even the biggest severe weenies never really expect much.

[WinterWxLuvr]

you've said this a few times but you're not right. i dunno what to tell you there. if nothing else we never look that far out and there are like 5 of us who look out to maybe a week compared to several hundred with snow. also even the biggest severe weenies never really expect much.

I said basically the same thing the other day. Looking beyond a few days is bad for the soul and, IMO, the best way to have winter seemingly pass in the blink of an eye.

[Ian]

I said basically the same thing the other day. Looking beyond a few days is bad for the soul and, IMO, the best way to have winter seemingly pass in the blink of an eye.

Before anyone points it out I know this is a weather board. I am totally fine with people discussing the long range. I mean what else are we going to do most of the time these days.  But recent winters have been dominated by stuff that never happens.  I guess it's partly I feel stupid for not spending the time on it.. I just don't see the the benefit.  But, again, to those who want to.. by all means.  And this is not meant to degrade those who do.. they get a lot of praise though so hopefully it's OK for a few people to question the point. 

[aldie 22]

I think you're probably wrong. Just look how active it usually gets here for a storm that gives us three hours of snow. 

 

There are some very smart people here who are also big time snow weenies... so we just spend an inordinate time talking in great detail about snow that never happens.  If you don't fall into that camp you automatically get less respect than others and claims that you are chasing unrealistically large snow etc.

I'm not sure....certainly when an event is ongoing the vibe is different but when analyzing a pattern or potential event there are some who appear to not be interested if its a slop or mix event or they easily downplay it because certain things don't line up to produce significant snow...I'm confident that is not wrong but as mentioned it is my opinion so in my head its right.

[Bob Chill]

Chasing snow at any range is a fun hobby to me I enjoy it. Ive done it since first called 936-1212 in the 70's. I was terrible in Colorado because it was much more important during those years.

I spend less than an hour a day looking at models. During the incoming torch I prob spent less than 10 mins a day. I'm sure it seems like I lament over them but I don't. I'm really efficient digesting a run. If something seems worth digging into then I'll spend more time.

I think the ridiculous snow drought has upped the tension and neurosis in the lr thread. It is what it is and I will post 10+ analysis until I get band.

[aldie 22]

I'm not sure....certainly when an event is ongoing the vibe is different but when analyzing a pattern or potential event there are some who appear to not be interested if its a slop or mix event or they easily downplay it because certain things don't line up to produce significant snow...I'm confident that is not wrong but as mentioned it is my opinion so in my head its right.

My problem is that an event like this morning that was maybe 10 minutes here and left just a very light dust...makes me happy...any snow is good snow for me...I recognize I am in the minority...I also know some of the things that annoy me aren't a big deal to others...no biggie really...it's just a weather board

[usedtobe]

I'm not sure....certainly when an event is ongoing the vibe is different but when analyzing a pattern or potential event there are some who appear to not be interested if its a slop or mix event or they easily downplay it because certain things don't line up to produce significant snow...I'm confident that is not wrong but as mentioned it is my opinion so in my head its right.

I think part of the difference in perception is your slop tends to give you decent accumulations.  Our slop tends to be slop.  I like big storms or pure snow storms way better than snow to sleet events as the latter rarely produce much in the DC area, where you and winterluvr live is often a different story.   Plus living around here being conservative in forecasting snow works way more often than the opposite.

[PhineasC]

Chasing snow at any range is a fun hobby to me I enjoy it. Ive done it since first called 936-1212 in the 70's. I was terrible in Colorado because it was much more important during those years.

I spend less than an hour a day looking at models. During the incoming torch I prob spent less than 10 mins a day. I'm sure it seems like I lament over them but I don't. I'm really efficient digesting a run. If something seems worth digging into then I'll spend more time.

I think the ridiculous snow drought has upped the tension and neurosis in the lr thread. It is what it is and I will post 10+ analysis until I get band.

I can assure you that most here even if they don't want to look at the models wait all day to see what you and Wes think about the pattern.

[aldie 22]

I think part of the difference in perception is your slop tends to give you decent accumulations.  Our slop tends to be slop.  I like big storms or pure snow storms way better than snow to sleet events as the latter rarely produce much in the DC area, where you and winterluvr live is often a different story.   Plus living around here being conservative in forecasting snow works way more often than the opposite.

What I admire about you is your consistency...and obviously your knowledge of our climo and meteorology. I often wonder though if that knowledge limits your ability to enjoy the smaller crap events even down your way? I suppose your experience helps to avoid disappointment or letdown better so that's a positive...but like I said...snow is awesome no matter the final outcome...to me.

I'm looking forward to the day that you're are really excited about a pattern or an event. Those are the best threads!!!

[SNO]

What I admire about you is your consistency...and obviously your knowledge of our climo and meteorology. I often wonder though if that knowledge limits your ability to enjoy the smaller crap events even down your way? I suppose your experience helps to avoid disappointment or letdown better so that's a positive...but like I said...snow is awesome no matter the final outcome...to me.

I'm looking forward to the day that you're are really excited about a pattern or an event. Those are the best threads!!!

 

Agreed...Wes is the best poster here...imho.  Consistently solid with realistic forecasts.  No hype, no bull.  I also look forward to a real snow pattern...it seems like it takes a small miracle for that to happen in DCA anymore.

[H2O]

I like weather

[usedtobe]

What I admire about you is your consistency...and obviously your knowledge of our climo and meteorology. I often wonder though if that knowledge limits your ability to enjoy the smaller crap events even down your way? I suppose your experience helps to avoid disappointment or letdown better so that's a positive...but like I said...snow is awesome no matter the final outcome...to me.

I'm looking forward to the day that you're are really excited about a pattern or an event. Those are the best threads!!!

I do like big ones but wouldn't have minded a dusting but with vorts like the last one,  seems like the echoes almost always dry out before getting the far east unless we can pop a little low east of the mountains south of us. 

[usedtobe]

I like weather

I like Lindt's dark chocolate with chile.   It's more reliable than DC weather in winter.  Of course so is a good glass of wine. 

[Avdave]

you've said this a few times but you're not right. i dunno what to tell you there.  if nothing else we never look that far out and there are like 5 of us who look out to maybe a week compared to several hundred with snow.  also even the biggest severe weenies never really expect much.

So it is ok to look 5 days ahead with regards to severe wx but it is silly to look 5 days ahead to winter wx?  1 or 5 people it is still the same thing. You have me confused here. But whatever, it is only wx

[Prestige Worldwide]

Well it's officially 3 years now since coastal Delaware has seen an inch of snow or more. Boxing Day 2010 was our last. I hear winter 2016-2017 will be rocking for us though!!!

[Ian]

So it is ok to look 5 days ahead with regards to severe wx but it is silly to look 5 days ahead to winter wx?  1 or 5 people it is still the same thing. You have me confused here. But whatever, it is only wx

That's not what I said at all. The operational models in particular have almost no skill day 7 and beyond.  There's a lot more that goes into the discussion than that obviously but a lot of it is just hopeful talk in the end.  I think most of us would be better off if we didn't care all that much what the models say outside a week but that's not going to happen. 

 

In severe you can get a pattern but more often than not no one beats any drums till like 2-3 days out even in the biggest of cases.  Plus we get excited over the prospect of one tornado over a huge region that no one on the board will even come close to seeing. Tracking snow and tracking severe here are not terribly similar endeavors other than it's something some weather weenies do. 

[AvantHiatus]

At the very least, tracking winter, severe, and tropical ensures that you will never become bored during the year. Snow lovers go into hibernation in the summer and then get depressed when they miss one snow opportunity.

[dallen7908]

Hoping for a perfect 10 (winter) for the DC area

 

0.     Less than 4” of snow with no single event being all snow/sleet

1.     Less than 4” of snowsleet

2.     4-12” of snow with no one all-snow/sleet event exceeding 4”

3.     4-12” of snow with at least one 4” all snow/sleet event

4.     12-24” of snow with no event exceeding 6”

5.     12-24” of snow with one event of 6” or more.

6.     24-40” of snow

7.     24-40” of snow with one event of 8” or more

8.     40” of snow

9.     40” or more of snow with at least one 12” event

10. 40” or more of snow with at least two 12” events including one that is followed by a week of sub-40 degree temperatures 

[snow.]

Hoping for a perfect 10 (winter) for the DC area

 

0.     Less than 4” of snow with no single event being all snow/sleet

1.     Less than 4” of snowsleet

2.     4-12” of snow with no one all-snow/sleet event exceeding 4”

3.     4-12” of snow with at least one 4” all snow/sleet event

4.     12-24” of snow with no event exceeding 6”

5.     12-24” of snow with one event of 6” or more.

6.     24-40” of snow

7.     24-40” of snow with one event of 8” or more

8.     40” of snow

9.     40” or more of snow with at least one 12” event

10. 40” or more of snow with at least two 12” events including one that is followed by a week of sub-40 degree temperatures 

 

I think 2 or 3 are pretty safe bets for immediate dc metro...

[usedtobe]

I think 2 or 3 are pretty safe bets for immediate dc metro...

My thoughts on rating a winter are:

 

1) under 5 inches

2) 5-8

3) 8-12

4) 12-15

5) 15-18

6) 18-22

7) 22-28 with at least one 8 inch or greater

8) 22-28 with at least four 4 inch or better.

9) 28-40 I don't care about the break down as there will be at least one really big storm

10) anything over 40 inches is a monster year. 

 

If it's over 50 at DCA then it's an unbelieveable winter. 

[snow.]

My thoughts on rating a winter are:

 

1) under 5 inches

2) 5-8

3) 8-12

4) 12-15

5) 15-18

6) 18-22

7) 22-28 with at least one 8 inch or greater

8) 22-28 with at least four 4 inch or better.

9) 28-40 I don't care about the break down as there will be at least one really big storm

10) anything over 40 inches is a monster year. 

 

If it's over 50 at DCA then it's an unbelieveable winter. 

 

 

Most of our winters are 1, 2, 3

[87storms]

as they say in sports, take it one game at a time, so maybe right now it's best to take it one storm at a time.  let's see what sunday does, then worry about the rest of the week.

[Ji]

Nobody has a right to criticize anyone with a bad attitude on this board. We have not enjoyed a snowstorm in 3 years . That's a long time... Even in a crappy area like dc

[Ji]

as they say in sports, take it one game at a time, so maybe right now it's best to take it one storm at a time. let's see what sunday does, then worry about the rest of the week.

Sunday is going to not be as wet as the American Models show but still liquid