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December Banter Thread 2


H2O

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Apparently +AO / +NAO / -pna decembers are cold and snowy in the MA. 

 

lol... yeah. The -EPO block always trumps these teleconnections. When you dislodge the motherload, it definitely affects the baroclinic zone placement / high placements to favor wintry-wx etc.

 

Scrolling through what has happened, you can see the huge anticyclone breaking and then settle in the NE PAC, like a +PDO winter...like the 1980s, over the warm pool:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

 

You can also see very weak cyclones in the NW / N-C Pac, similar to an El Nino-like Aleutian low. There is definitely a hybrid-nature to the pattern with a STJ.

 

Awesome...

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lol... yeah. The -EPO block always trumps these teleconnections. When you dislodge the motherload, it definitely affects the baroclinic zone placement / high placements to favor wintry-wx etc.

 

Scrolling through what has happened, you can see the huge anticyclone breaking and then settle in the NE PAC, like a +PDO winter...like the 1980s, over the warm pool:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

 

You can also see very weak cyclones in the NW / N-C Pac, similar to an El Nino-like Aleutian low. There is definitely a hybrid-nature to the pattern with a STJ.

 

Awesome...

 

 

Wow, that's a cool loop. It's never a bad thing when our clouds originate south of HI. 

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Wow, that's a cool loop. It's never a bad thing when our clouds originate south of HI. 

 

No it's not, my snow-starved friend. Did I really just get 6" of snow yesterday? lol... A little to my S and SW picked up 9-12"...haha.

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No it's not, my snow-starved friend. Did I really just get 6" of snow yesterday? lol... A little to my S and SW picked up 9-12"...haha.

 

Yea, the newark DE jackpot was a total freakshow of dynamics. Us close in DC folks were on the outside looking in.

 

Any thoughts on tomorrow? Looks like some good moisture, lift, and vv's for a time. Bands will obviously determine the winners and losers. Should I be totally paranoid that the usual suspects N-W have a redux while us dc guys...well...have a redux?

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If DC gets screwed tomorrow, y'all can blame me. Normally I'm a top-of-the-line weenie, but tomorrow morning I have a little procedure scheduled that I *really* don't want canceled, and also don't want to end up in a ditch on the way there or back. So I'm at least rooting for the original timeframe of a late-morning start.

 

After that, it can snow a foot for all I care. :)

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Yea, the newark DE jackpot was a total freakshow of dynamics. Us close in DC folks were on the outside looking in.

 

Any thoughts on tomorrow? Looks like some good moisture, lift, and vv's for a time. Bands will obviously determine the winners and losers. Should I be totally paranoid that the usual suspects N-W have a redux while us dc guys...well...have a redux?

 

Yesterday was a classic setup for synoptic-scale lift with low-mid level deformation, differential thermal advection, PVA etc. When you have general large-scale lift, spatially, you can anticipate mesoscale banding along deformation zones (momentum-pending). The dry air, in these situations, is always modeled to win for QPF, because synoptically, the model is correct. However, when you are making perfect dendrites, prolifically, with omega/RH in the snow growth zone, the bands tend to be equally prolific. These lead to the busts like we saw in Jan 2010, Jan 2011 and yesterday on the northern edge of QPF.

 

Tomorrow, is not the same thing. We do not have all the factors that favor large-scale lift in-place. During the time of snow potential, large-scale low to mid level cold air advection is favored. In fact, the profiles may get a bit unstable for a while, similar to a summertime squall line. Your band / period of snow will be more N-S orientated while up in PA, it will have a little more time to accumulate with a SW-NE tilt. So between the duration and synoptic-scale setup, I would say it's another one that favors north of you. But let's see how the GFS comes in. Given the unstable nature to this round of snow, it could be really fun for a while.

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 Now, that's just downright adorable. Did she seem to like it MG? I know some kids run away when they get their first face full.

 

well she had a few things against her, one she still isn't too stable walking around, two she is still trying to figure out how to walk with shoes on and three, it was snow. So needless to say her first few steps ended up with her going face first into snow and crying. But she quickly got over it and would bend down and slap the snow with her hands.

 

I think she loved the snow suit more than anything, the mittens were making her laugh.

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well she had a few things against her, one she still isn't too stable walking around, two she is still trying to figure out how to walk with shoes on and three, it was snow. So needless to say her first few steps ended up with her going face first into snow and crying. But she quickly got over it and would bend down and slap the snow with her hands.

 

I think she loved the snow suit more than anything, the mittens were making her laugh.

 

Perfect! She'll be tracking the GFS in no time! :)

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