UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Discussion regarding the first wave Friday through Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this might be the better of the 2 waves for parts of the area...wave 2 maybe mainly rain for many after an initial burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 just rain with the 1st wave for NYC and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 18z NAM is coming in a lot colder NW of the city. Change over commencing between 03 and 06z, almost snow to the city before ending. Areas NW of I-287 get almost 0.50" frozen. The thermal profiles are better aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2-3" for the north of I-80, east of I-287 and west of the GSP crew. 3-5" for the southern Sussex County though western Passaic County and northern Weschester County. 4-6"+ for Orange County and Sullivan County. Looking at the 4k, the surface freezing line gets to I-287 and sticks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2-3" for the north of I-80, east of I-287 and west of the GSP crew. 3-5" for the southern Sussex County though western Passaic County and northern Weschester County. 4-6"+ for Orange County and Sullivan County. Looking at the 4k, the surface freezing line gets to I-287 and sticks there. Well the PHL NWS clearly doesn't believe this line of thinking for my area (Andover), point and click says: Tonight: Periods of rain and sleet before 3am, then a chance of sleet between 3am and 4am, then a chance of rain and snow after 4am. Low around 32. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Hoping they are wrong but 3-5" would be a huge bust on their part IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well the PHL NWS clearly doesn't believe this line of thinking for my area (Andover), point and click says: Tonight: Periods of rain and sleet before 3am, then a chance of sleet between 3am and 4am, then a chance of rain and snow after 4am. Low around 32. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Hoping they are wrong but 3-5" would be a huge bust on their part IMO. you are confusing events. Yanksfan is talking about Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 you are confusing events. Yanksfan is talking about Sunday night. My bad ... He is posting in the wrong thread than as this thread is for tonight and there is a seperate one for Sun/Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've already started mixing rain and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 18z NAM is coming in a lot colder NW of the city. Change over commencing between 03 and 06z, almost snow to the city before ending. Areas NW of I-287 get almost 0.50" frozen. The thermal profiles are better aligned. For the second wave on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I've already started mixing rain and sleet Sleet here as well... Temp of 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sleet here as well... Temp of 36[/quote Where are you located " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS NYC very conservative: http://ow.ly/i/3WXOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sleet here as well... Temp of 36[/quote Where are you located " Between Middletown & Greenville elevation 850' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS NYC very conservative: http://ow.ly/i/3WXOK Typical...I've always found with these minor wave events that have a 3-6" potential they always start out conservative forecasting 1-2... Then as nowcasting begins they will change totals mid storm... Public forcasters are far to worried about criticism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 41/38 only expecting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS NYC very conservative: http://ow.ly/i/3WXOKLooks good to me surface is too warm unless you have good elevation far NW of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks good to me surface is too warm unless you have good elevation far NW of city Agreed I meant trey are playing a bit conservative for my area... I sit around 900ft in elevation, and my forcast is for an inch of slushy accumulation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agreed I meant trey are playing a bit conservative for my area... I sit around 900ft in elevation, and my forcast is for an inch of slushy accumulation... 900ft in New windsor??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 44/rain, worst kind of winter night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 900ft in New windsor??? No I'm at work, I'm a firefighter at West Point and I'm stationed out in the woods basically were sitting at 868ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 No I'm at work, I'm a firefighter at West Point and I'm stationed out in the woods basically were sitting at 868ft Ah ok... So your out toward Rt 293 then.. Storm King mtn should be a pretty sight come morning. 1300' ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ah ok... So your out toward Rt 293 then.. Storm King mtn should be a pretty sight come morning. 1300' ftw Yea dude my firehouse is on rt..293 just at the base of storm king mt... Can't tell ya how many times everyone else gets rain or sleet and were in heavy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Radar looks much better than what the GGEM predicted.. Heavy snows west of freezing line...areas N+W could be looking at some pleasant surprises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Radar looks much better than what the GGEM predicted.. Heavy snows west of freezing line...areas N+W could be looking at some pleasant surprises... Yea the radar looks really good.... Currently sitting at 36.9 dropping nicely now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Getting there.... 925mb & 850mb temps @ 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Even down in the 30s (38 - 39 mostly) along the north shore of LI now. That probably won't reflect on how much warmer air overhead is going to make it hard to get frozen before the end, but it is colder than expected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Im literally like 5 miles from all snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Getting there.... 925mb & 850mb temps @ 0z Was this from 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Even down in the 30s (38 - 39 mostly) along the north shore of LI now. That probably won't reflect on how much warmer air overhead is going to make it hard to get frozen before the end, but it is colder than expected at this point. Cold air at low levels coming in a little quicker than progged...12z models generally had northern L.I. with 925mb temps of 4 C to 5 C at 7:00 PM...map had actual temp down to about 2 C @ 925 mb. The 12z progs for 850 mb temps look pretty close to reality, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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