BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This expanded south a little bit at least for max potential: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This expanded south a little bit at least for max potential: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Isn't that like the highest possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 18z GFS just looks slower. Still looks like one hell of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Isn't that like the highest possible? yes, I edited the text to clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Isn't that like the highest possible? Yup, means that ~90% probability of having *less* than that amount (if I worded that correctly), and 10% chance of getting more. EDIT: Still a nice looking upper limit all the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Isn't that like the highest possible? posting those maps should be worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 18z GFS just looks slower. Still looks like one hell of an ice storm. Yes, looks slower (and less) with the precip, which would be more ice. The surface temperatures seem to evolve similarly to 12Z, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looking at the GFS, snow appears to start around the same time as the NAM, but the GFS looks to end the snow about 4-5 hours earlier than the NAM. They both appear to show sleet or freezing rain for the same amount of time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS trends colder in its later hours with precip and a big H over south-central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I fail to see how elevation plays a role in a situation like this. During the snow period nobody is anywhere near freezing. I am guessing Lift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 posting those maps should be worthyProbabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 posting those maps should be worthy I don't recall being in storm mode yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I don't recall being in storm mode yet? Bigger question is why even create that map. Sometimes there seems to be too much info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Are the SREF's ever useful? Like inside 2 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Bigger question is why even create that map. Sometimes there seems to be too much info. I like the idea, though they could label it better to decipher from the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Are the SREF's ever useful? Like inside 2 hours?they are quite good for severe weather within about 1-2 days but this might be another nam convo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I like the idea, though they could label it better to decipher from the most likely scenario. Yeah I'm afraid a few clueless weenies will take those maps and run with them for attention/fb likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 someone get rid of that SE Ridge. It can't be helping us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS tries to do another ice storm repeat day 8-10, its way warmer, but HP in good position so it would likely trend, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Bigger question is why even create that map. Sometimes there seems to be too much info. LWX is under a pilot program to provide OEM support for VA / DC / MD. As part of the program, they are creating winter weather products to show the lower / upper end and most likely scenario. The wording is subjective and meant more for DOT / OEM use than general consumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS is a pretty lousy run for most of us compared to Euro/NAM That's what I thought. The lesser front end and slower back end make for a tough run. Hope it's an anomaly and not onto something. I always worry about front end stuff when the upper support is so far west. It might mean nothing but I'm a worrier and it seems like that happens to us more than our fair share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well if anyone is interested DT is all in. His first call maps would be disastrous for the Shenandoah Valley's power grid. 4-8 of snow followed by .75-1.50 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can LWX (or any NWS WFO) cancel a WSWarning and hoist a ISW once the snow/sleet is over and freezing rain has begun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is too funny. Really .75-1.5" of ice.... there is not even that much qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can LWX (or any NWS WFO) cancel a WSWarning and hoist a ISW once the snow/sleet is over and freezing rain has begun? Yes they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is too funny. Really .75-1.5" of ice.... there is not even that much qpf... Perhaps he is assuming 15:1 ratios for the ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 LWX is under a pilot program to provide OEM support for VA / DC / MD. As part of the program, they are creating winter weather products to show the lower / upper end and most likely scenario. The wording is subjective and meant more for DOT / OEM use than general consumption. Everything is generally consumed these days so it should be factored in if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm gonna take the under on DT probably. Not sure where he gets that much precip either though if you use total accumulated precip and include today it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is too funny. Really .75-1.5" of ice.... there is not even that much qpf... Looking forward several days without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm gonna take the under on DT probably. Not sure where he gets that much precip either though if you use total accumulated precip and include today it's possible. I literally think he is forgetting to subtract the precipitation from today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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