Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Quick question. Why does the NWS have us under a winter storm watch with 1 to 2 inches of snow expected? That merits a winter weather advisory, not a WSW. Don't tell me the NWS has just gone all weenie on us. The 0.25" ice criteria is met with the watch. Areas within the watch have potential for up to 0.6" ice...especially west of Montgomery / Howard / Loudon / Carroll. Sterling also wanted some wiggle room since the high and fresh air mass may delay changeover to plain rain and give an icy surprise to I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 it's picking up on the CAD...it's its specialty perhaps but at that range we're probably just setting up to be angry with it on monday and then say it sucks and that it should never be used etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 it's picking up on the CAD...it's its specialty i thought its specialty was having more qpf than the other models combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The 0.25" ice criteria is met with the watch. Areas within the watch have potential for up to 0.6" ice...especially west of Montgomery / Howard / Loudon / Carroll. Sterling also wanted some wiggle room since the high and fresh air mass may delay changeover to plain rain and give an icy surprise to I-95 corridor. You are about to be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 can anyone think of a storm that gave us 3-4 inches followed by significant ice? this is going to look pretty awesome with the holiday lights...like the stuff you see in movies and commercials that never actually happens in our area. There was one storm in the 80s where it snowed 6 inches...then there was freezing drizzle/rain for a while and i was able to walk on top of the snow. Bob Ryan called it to get to 57 that day or something and we didnt go above freezing December 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 perhaps but at that range we're probably just setting up to be angry with it on monday and then say it sucks and that it should never be used etc. It will still suck at 24 hours...we don't really have to worry about it improving...but that said, I think there are aspects that I don't pay as much attention to that it might be decent at or at least help signal something when used in conjunction with other guidance....I've found it is pretty dangerous and often foolhardy to take it too seriously...but if mets and others think it has utlility in making a better forecast, then I defer to them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Seriously NAM?.?.?. your like the alcoholic who wakes up sick every morning promising yourself you aren't gonna drink that night.. but as soon as 3:00 PM rolls around and you get off work your holding a big fat glimmering glass of Jack and Coke in one hand while pounding the bar while with the other... wondering how you got back here again? This is banter. At best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It will still suck at 24 hours...we don't really have to worry about it improving...but that said, I think there are aspects that I don't pay as much attention to that it might be decent at or at least help signal something when used in conjunction with other guidance....I've found it is pretty dangerous and often foolhardy to take it too seriously...but if mets and others think it has utlility in making a better forecast, then I defer to them.. Good points, while it's fun to look at this particular run, cannot (yet) take it at face value too seriously. However, that said, one does have to wonder if it's picking up something in terms of the CAD signature. It's notably longer lasting and colder. Maybe not, and it may be different in 6 hours, but it raises the eye brows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is banter. At best. ...or the rantings of someone who's already had a couple of "big fat shimmering glasses of Jack and Coke" themselves already? (yes, that was banter too, sorry). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good points, while it's fun to look at this particular run, cannot (yet) take it at face value too seriously. However, that said, one does have to wonder if it's picking up something in terms of the CAD signature. It's notably longer lasting and colder. Maybe not, and it may be different in 6 hours, but it raises the eye brows. I don't know...but I know with CAD, the favored areas in NW VA almost always hold on later than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It will still suck at 24 hours...we don't really have to worry about it improving...but that said, I think there are aspects that I don't pay as much attention to that it might be decent at or at least help signal something when used in conjunction with other guidance....I've found it is pretty dangerous and often foolhardy to take it too seriously...but if mets and others think it has utlility in making a better forecast, then I defer to them.. you know more about snow around here than i do but i'll just have to disagree with your thoughts on the nam in the short term. i use it all the time with good results. it's certainly not my go to for a snowstorm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 you know more about snow around here than i do but i'll just have to disagree with your thoughts on the nam in the short term. i use it all the time with good results. it's certainly not my go to for a snowstorm though. fair enough...if people get value out of it, I defer to them...I think we forget all the busts sometimes and only the successes....I know it screwed you badly on a forecast last winter...as it has me as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ian is the voice of reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 fair enough...if people get value out of it, I defer to them...I think we forget all the busts sometimes and only the successes....I know it screwed you badly on a forecast last winter...as it has me as well... yeah.. i think it runs too cold at the sfc in general with storms. but it does pick up on nuances across the area it seems with the higher resolution. i'd always favor a gfs/euro type of blend over the nam for a snow event though .. or should. who knows in practice. even the most conservative forecasters become weenies every now and then. if the nam showed a huge hit in 12 hours i'd probably be tempted to buy it and it might bust. i like it for t-storms of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I don't know...but I know with CAD, the favored areas in NW VA almost always hold on later than modeled Absolutely. Which is why if it's showing the CAD hanging on even longer, there are a lot of places not that far west of here that will be a mess well into Monday morning (if this is correct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I don't know...but I know with CAD, the favored areas in NW VA almost always hold on later than modeled Agree about the CAD. But the NAM is just off its rockers. Where is it getting 2.25 through 48? Edit: I misread the contour. Its only 1.75!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 yeah.. i think it runs too cold at the sfc in general with storms. but it does pick up on nuances across the area it seems with the higher resolution. i'd always favor a gfs/euro type of blend over the nam for a snow event though .. or should. who knows in practice. even the most conservative forecasters become weenies every now and then. if the nam showed a huge hit in 12 hours i'd probably be tempted to buy it and it might bust. i like it for t-storms of course. This may be obvious (of course), but it will be very interesting if the GFS likewise shows the CAD hanging on longer in the metro areas similar to the NAM. But that's speculation at this point, and can't really forecast what a forecast model will show based on the solutions of another one (or something like that)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 the NAM is the one model however that can go from 2.25 qpf 18z to .79 on 00z in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this looks pretty legit even wes gets more snow than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this looks pretty legit hires_snow_depth_washdc_58.png even wes gets more snow than me. Its interesting how its trying to take elevation into that map. I would take it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this looks pretty legit hires_snow_depth_washdc_58.png even wes gets more snow than me. Salisbury gets more snow than us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 December 1990 Valentines Day storm 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Agree about the CAD. But the NAM is just off its rockers. Where is it getting 2.25 through 48? Where it's getting that from one cannot say politely in mixed company! But seriously, part of that total includes stuff from this afternoon into tomorrow, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Valentines Day storm 2007 there was not a flake in the VD storm i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 there was not a flake in the VD storm i believe Perhaps not in the immediate DC area, but I recall that there were several inches of snow (and sleet) in the farther out suburbs, toward Germantown and the like. Where I'm at, I got all sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I was in Bowie, and I remember the VD storm in 2007 starting off as snow, then switching over to a little sleet then massive freezing rain. I feel like we got at least a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Perhaps not in the immediate DC area, but I recall that there were several inches of snow (and sleet) in the farther out suburbs, toward Germantown and the like. Where I'm at, I got all sleet. DCA reported heavy snow for a time http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2007/2/25/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 can anyone think of a storm that gave us 3-4 inches followed by significant ice? this is going to look pretty awesome with the holiday lights...like the stuff you see in movies and commercials that never actually happens in our area. There was one storm in the 80s where it snowed 6 inches...then there was freezing drizzle/rain for a while and i was able to walk on top of the snow. Bob Ryan called it to get to 57 that day or something and we didnt go above freezingI think I remember that same storm but was in southern nj then. They called for 1-3 then rain and 50 and it never changed over. We got 8" them freezing drizzle. It was the mid/late 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I was in Bowie, and I remember the VD storm in 2007 starting off as snow, then switching over to a little sleet then massive freezing rain. I feel like we got at least a couple inches of snow. The crusty ice layer over the light snow accumulation stuck around for over a week easily in my area. I remember it being quite a big bust forecast expecting more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 this looks pretty legit hires_snow_depth_washdc_58.png even wes gets more snow than me. Not good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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