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Winter storm 12/8-9 model discussion part II


Ji

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Matt, I'm thinking someone West of the cities (not too far) stands a fair shot at 4" sn/ip. I think I have a legit shot at 2". Too aggressive?

 

no...I mean the GFS is a snow sounding for you at 18z....and then a sleet sounding at 21z....so how long do you stay snow after 18z?...maybe an hour?...you could surpass 2" in that hour and then get another 0.5" of sleet....I think the NAM is goofy with its early flip but who knows....One thing I don't have a good handle on is IP vs ZR....once we go above freezing at 850, I think we can stay sleet for a while longer but not sure how long?   I think we had +3 850 temps for a while during 2/14/07, but a different setup with a different column....

 

One thing we do know.  No guidance has had us snow at 21z.....and it isn't a close call..so unless there is some model failure...it wont be snowing for any of us after 2-3pm or so.....

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True enough.  Those 50+ temps projected for Monday the GFS had were from I think Thursday and early Friday runs.  It's clearly backed away from that.  As interesting as a good ice event would be, I would not look forward to frozen destruction and power outages.  Here in MoCo, the king of the power outages every time a twig falls from a tree!

Even with .50 frozen, i'll guess half of MoCo loses power. Even since Pepco's trimming response to the derecho, I have a hard time believing that they've done enough good to really make a difference.

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Even with .50 frozen, i'll guess half of MoCo loses power. Even since Pepco's trimming response to the derecho, I have a hard time believing that they've done enough good to really make a difference.

 

I lost power for 2 days in Commutageddon (Jan. 26, 2011), and 3 days after the derecho...and consider myself lucky compared to a lot of others.  Miraculously, the power did not go out during Sandy.  Probably due in part to trimming after the derecho along with a lot of "dead wood" getting blown out then as well.

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I lost power for 2 days in Commutageddon (Jan. 26, 2011), and 3 days after the derecho...and consider myself lucky compared to a lot of others.  Miraculously, the power did not go out during Sandy.  Probably due in part to trimming after the derecho along with a lot of "dead wood" getting blown out then as well.

Woof... we didnt even flash during commutageddon at my place (at the time) in Kensington. I just have no faith in Pepco to have spent the money securing their infrastructure. Yes, their trucks and their contractors were out in force "trimming", but I have a feeling it was for show. You know - go to every neighborhood and show them that they care about providing better service. Only time will tell, but if the right pieces from the models verify, IHMO western and northern MoCo are in for a couple days w/o power

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Woof... we didnt even flash during commutageddon at my place (at the time) in Kensington. I just have no faith in Pepco to have spent the money securing their infrastructure. Yes, their trucks and their contractors were out in force "trimming", but I have a feeling it was for show. You know - go to every neighborhood and show them that they care about providing better service. Only time will tell, but if the right pieces from the models verify, IHMO western and northern MoCo are in for a couple days w/o power

 

I hear you concerning Pepco!  My confidence in them is, to be polite, not that great whenever there's a weather event that could knock the power out.  I do think some of the tree trimming was for show, because they caught a lot of (well deserved) flack for awhile before that and they wanted to "look like they were doing something."  Honestly, I think the "natural" pruning from the derecho blowing down a lot of weak trees did more to help!

 

And I agree, if this event verifies, power outages especially in western/northern MoCo will be significant...and elsewhere as well.

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I hear you concerning Pepco!  My confidence in them is, to be polite, not that great whenever there's a weather event that could knock the power out.  I do think some of the tree trimming was for show, because they caught a lot of (well deserved) flack for awhile before that and they wanted to "look like they were doing something."  Honestly, I think the "natural" pruning from the derecho blowing down a lot of weak trees did more to help!

 

And I agree, if this event verifies, power outages especially in western/northern MoCo will be significant...and elsewhere as well.

They're in the margin business - just like everyone else. Makes sense they cut corners on the most expensive maintenance. But c'est la vie - if only Pepco could give me my 3 inches before the transition. I'm just hoping our local motorists heed the warnings - last thing we need is these folks on the road when everything gets icy tomorrow. Other than that, I'll be on my balcony in Rosslyn uploading nowcast imagery of the Mall out my window.

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My blend of NAM/GFS:

 

Snow starts in SW DC 9 AM EDT.............N. Baltimore 11 AM EDT

Liquid equiv. by sunset Sunday......0.37 to 0.62

Sleet gives way to freezing rain east side of Baltimore and DC 4:30 EDT

Sleet gives way to freezing rain west side of Baltimore and DC 7:30 to 8:30 PM EDT

 

I am not thinking it will snow and sleet for 10+ hours DC westward as you have depicted.  It is pretty uncommon to have sleet in this area for a long period of time.  I know of the exceptions, but they are few.  I see this as maybe a one-hour period of snow, a one-hour period of sleet/snow mix, and a one-hour period of sleet/zr mix areawide (more or less), and then all zr until a time that is much more dependent on your location--a short period of zr in the east and a much longer period in the far west/favored areas.

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WTF?  So is it really dry, or does that indicate ice rather than snow around here (south and east of its snow area)?

it's mainly just really dry around here .. that band skirts the nw part of the area then coalesces up in PA.  it's probably wrong but might be worth staying up all night worrying about.

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WTF?  So is it really dry, or does that indicate ice rather than snow around here (south and east of its snow area)?

 

Well any model at will do that at the end of its' range. RAP is good to maybe 10 hrs.  Anyway Euro snowfall maps are the only thing that matter, you can get 3 hr snow maps on wunderground for free so I don't see the need to use the RAP to forecast snow.

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Well any model at will do that at the end of its' range. RAP is good to maybe 10 hrs.  Anyway Euro snowfall maps are the only thing that matter, you can get 3 hr snow maps on wunderground for free so I don't see the need to use the RAP to forecast snow.

HRRR agrees. Shut this thread down

 

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I am not thinking it will snow and sleet for 10+ hours DC westward as you have depicted.  It is pretty uncommon to have sleet in this area for a long period of time.  I know of the exceptions, but they are few.  I see this as maybe a one-hour period of snow, a one-hour period of sleet/snow mix, and a one-hour period of sleet/zr mix areawide (more or less), and then all zr until a time that is much more dependent on your location--a short period of zr in the east and a much longer period in the far west/favored areas.

I see your point, it the RAP is onto something, it will be Virgaville.

The implication in my guess-ta-cast was that everyone starts as snow with sleet mixing in sooner on the east side and later on the west and then becoming all freezing rain late afternoon to early evening.    So, three hours of sleet in most places sandwiched between all snow and all freezing rain.

 

 

Actually, the high rez NAM has Centerville to DC going to freezing rain in mid-afternoon. 

 

Sorry.  :cry:

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I am not thinking it will snow and sleet for 10+ hours DC westward as you have depicted. It is pretty uncommon to have sleet in this area for a long period of time. I know of the exceptions, but they are few. I see this as maybe a one-hour period of snow, a one-hour period of sleet/snow mix, and a one-hour period of sleet/zr mix areawide (more or less), and then all zr until a time that is much more dependent on your location--a short period of zr in the east and a much longer period in the far west/favored areas.

You could be right but that forecast goes against all reliable guidance. If an arctic high wasn't parked jogging distance from our heads I would be more willing to agree but if it wasn't the models would agree as well.

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