PDIII Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It likes my house though my changeover is done after about .20 or so and then I'm sleet and ice. Wes - Looking at the average of several different runs of several different models over the last several days... I really only seeing a range of .2 to .5 qpf for the metro areas before change over... assuming .3 qpf over 6-9 hour period... with this set up... with the winds.. temp profiles, climo, etc... how well does that translate to accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 snowmap I have has Wes right around 3", but I don't know how well these maps do with 700mb-850mb, plus they are based on 10:1 ratios Wxbell's do terrible. I use them as an easy guide for precip amounts and where the maxes appear to be. Then I defer to the temp panels to adjust for reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like a dusting to 1" Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 According to Will and Scott, the Wunderground maps are not accurate. they were accurate for saying no snow on 3/5 and for snow on 3/25 this year (may have exact days wrong) so I think they are better than most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like a dusting to 1" Mitch ahhhh.....No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wes - Looking at the average of several different runs of several different models over the last several days... I really only seeing a range of .2 to .5 qpf for the metro areas before change over... assuming .3 qpf over 6-9 hour period... with this set up... with the winds.. temp profiles, climo, etc... how well does that translate to accumulating snow? the column is below freezing and there is no sun...which means snow accumulates...if it is 28 on december 9th and it is snowing it will stick...maybe not major arteries and treated roads as well...but on a snowboard/tabeles/decks/grass....yes it sticks.. we are in the 30s tomorrow afternoon and 20s likely by late evening...I think that will help offset any warm ground concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wunderground is 3"+ at DCA & IAD maps skip a panel but I'm sure BWI is similar WxBell is 4.6" at IAD through 60 and Reagan looks like 5. something. Looks like the 850's go to hell about 57 hours. Again, 10-1 ratio. These are numbers for total accumulating snowfall versus snowfall depth. Not sure there is a difference when there was no snow on the ground previously, but there seems to be judging by the numbers not matching between the two maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 they were accurate for saying no snow on 3/5 and for snow on 3/25 this year (may have exact days wrong) so I think they are better than most I do not keep track of them, but in the NE thread the other day they both said they were terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Snow does stick around here from time to time. I think the last two winters have made folks maybe a hair too jaded. Yes, we get screwed a lot but sometimes it does snow with temps in the 20s and stick to the roads. This isn't Atlanta or late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Snow does stick around here from time to time. I think the last two winters have made folks maybe a hair too jaded. Yes, we get screwed a lot but sometimes it does snow with temps in the 20s and stick to the roads. This isn't Atlanta or late February. i think given the conditions, 0.03"/hr type steady light snow will lay at 28-29 degrees with no sun...even if not dendrites...but showery.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 the column is below freezing and there is no sun...which means snow accumulates...if it is 28 on december 9th and it is snowing it will stick...maybe not major arteries and treated roads as well...but on a snowboard/tabeles/decks/grass....yes it sticks.. we are in the 30s tomorrow afternoon and 20s likely by late evening...I think that will help offset any warm ground concerns I called Jason to talk about what to do over my zone as I could get almost nothing or an inch or two depending on where that 1st band sets up and we won't know that almost until it sets up. We're using probabilities which may be on the low side but this early there just is a lot of bust potential if the band end up being less robust than on the models. I want a real snowstorm for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is overdone but here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 i think given the conditions, 0.03"/hr type steady light snow will lay at 28-29 degrees with no sun...even if not dendrites...but showery.... Matt, did the trailing wave disappear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Matt, did the trailing wave disappear? It's there but it's like a T-1" type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Matt, did the trailing wave disappear? dusting - inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I called Jason to talk about what to do over my zone as I could get almost nothing or an inch or two depending on where that 1st band sets up and we won't know that almost until it sets up. We're using probabilities which may be on the low side but this early there just is a lot of bust potential if the band end up being less robust than on the models. I want a real snowstorm for a change. for your backyard?..you could always up it tomorrow afternoon less than 1" - 45% 1"+ - 55% 3"+ - 15% ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is overdone but here: ecmwf_snow_24_washdc_13.png If that occurs, then CWG will look pretty stupid though we have another day to get it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wes' piece http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/06/major-winter-storm-sunday-briefly-snow-then-ice-significant-ice-storm-western-areas-possible/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 for your backyard?..you could always up it tomorrow afternoon less than 1" - 45% 1"+ - 55% 3"+ - 15% ?? I think Jason went 30 for me, 50 for you because my zone stretches into the eastern shore. He had not seen the euro yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If that occurs, then CWG will look pretty stupid though we have another day to get it right. It gives like 4" to places just SE of DC from 18z to 0z so my guess is it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Matt, did the trailing wave disappear? Accuweatherpro has .05 Tuesday morning for BWI. Looks weak but plenty time to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 I am going to sue Ryan Mahue for his euro snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 snowfall does not equal snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If that occurs, then CWG will look pretty stupid though we have another day to get it right. here is another...it is based on 10:1 ratios...and i have no idea if it gets the 700mb - 850mb range right gray is 2", blue 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 snowfall does not equal snow accumulation in this case the maps match but the acum one is running so it has the prior/current storm in it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Probably the biggest takeaway from the euro is the front wave is wetter and more expansive. That's a pretty big improvement from the "pinky finger" on the other 12z guidance. I've had doubts of the hp to the north stonewalling so efficiently. It's definitely an issue but there is potential for the e-w oriented band to move northward through time and even out the precip over a larger area. Takes away the pretty bullseye in that scenario but there would be more smiling faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's there but it's like a T-1" type deal. dusting - inch thanks....still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It gives like 4" to places just SE of DC from 18z to 0z so my guess is it's wrong. Probably, I thought I got around .2 before changeover when I looked at the temps off the euro. Jason has my 1" probability at 50% which I think this early is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Accuweatherpro has .05 Tuesday morning for BWI. Looks weak but plenty time to improve. thx to you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 here is another...it is based on 10:1 ratios...and i have no idea if it gets the 700mb - 850mb range right gray is 2", blue 4" 12euro.PNG more conservative. Seems better in this instance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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