Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is still spitting out wild changes 12-18 hours before the event every run....you would think the storm is 3-4 days away with the run by run inconsistencies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Damn..Nam super wet...relative to other runs. It's a pretty good run its 12 hours before the start of the event....when can we start using it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 its 12 hours before the start of the event....when can we start using it? It should come into its sweet spot for the 0z run tomm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Damn..Nam super wet...relative to other runs. It's a pretty good run not really..it is back to reality...12z and 18z were much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 not really..it is back to reality...12z and 18z were much wetter its wetter in the frozen part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Eh, a little dramatic on the language. Not like it's spitting out 1.5" liquid. not anymore...it seems to have come back down to earth...still would be a super high impact event for the favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Here is the Nam's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The nam should only got out to 18 hours and the rap should stop at 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 not really..it is back to reality...12z and 18z were much wetter lol, i didn't even look at 18z pre 60 hours...I was at the gym. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Here is the Nam's forecast. Id take that...im looking for wintry scenes with christmas lights. Thats why Dec 2009 storm was one of my favorite of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 its wetter in the frozen part of the storm that's actually true which is probably what Randy meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is still spitting out wild changes 12-18 hours before the event every run....you would think the storm is 3-4 days away with the run by run inconsistencies There is a reason it was pretty much ignored by the NWS for this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Sounding at DCA for 15z MON has 900-925mb temps +10 and surface right around 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 lol, i didn't even look at 18z pre 60 hours...I was at the gym. Oops. this run is actually more front loaded so potentiall as much or more impact for a wider area...though it is kind of silly to parse it all...it jumps around too much to take too seriously with the details, which is its main purpose ironically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 that's actually true which is probably what Randy meant Actually, I honestly didn't even look at the 18z NAM for this event. But yeah, it's wetter for the colder part of the storm. I want it to be right...I want a half inch of ice...cars abandoned on the side of the road, flights delayed, Eskimo Joe's power to be out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Here is the Nam's forecast. That's probably more like 1.25"+. Not all will accrete in heavier activity. Will be sig in spots but we've known that for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 this run is actually more front loaded so potentiall as much or more impact for a wider area...though it is kind of silly to parse it all...it jumps around too much to take too seriously with the details, which is its main purpose ironically I mean, to be fair...GFS is kinda jumpy too on orientation of the front runner burst. If we can't see some kind of consensus start now, I don't know what to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Final call map by DT -- http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/last.jpg Oh he had a snow map too! http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/LASTCSNOW.jpg That would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Guess someone forgot to proofread (LWX disco at 8:54pm) .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...HEADLINE UPDATE...WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR MOST OFTHE AREA ROUGHLY WEST FROM INTERSTATE 95 TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE UP ELSEWHERE (ALL ZONES HAVE AHEADLINE).GENERAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTATION REMAINS OF SNOW CHANGING TOSLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN...SLOWLY TURNING TO RAIN. COLD AIRDAMMING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MORESO THANPROGGED BY LATEST GUIDANCE. THAT KEEPS SOME FREEZING RAIN INTOMONDAY MORNING FOR THE NRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRALMARYLAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS QUITE HIGHFOR MOST OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR VA/MD PIEDMONT AREA...THECOMBINATION OF PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES OF ICE AND A COUPLE TENTHSINCH ICE WARRANTS A WARNING.TONIGHT...COLD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY DROPINTO THE TEENS AS A NORTH WIND BRINGS IN COLD AIR. MIN TEMPS BELOWFREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW 20S FOR NRN AND WRN ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Oh he had a snow map too! http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/LASTCSNOW.jpg That would be fun! He basically has 2-4" snow plus .25-.50" ice where i live, seems highly unlikely. I guess the 2" plus .25" are a possibility but not the higher end of either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 A couple inches of ice could be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That's probably more like 1.25"+. Not all will accrete in heavier activity. Will be sig in spots but we've known that for a few days now. in Jan 1999 at one point we had 0.50" of rain in an hour with a temp of 28. I don't think we are going to see that.. surface should be similar to that event....that was a great event even here in DC. I wasn't here for 1994, but 1999 was the only event I remember where DC proper was basically a skating rink....like you couldn't walk. I haven't experienced an event like that in DC other than that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 in Jan 1999 at one point we had 0.50" of rain in an hour with a temp of 28. I don't think we are going to see that.. surface should be similar to that event....that was a great event even here in DC. I wasn't here for 1994, but 1999 was the only event I remember where DC proper was basically a skating rink....like you couldn't walk. I haven't experienced an event like that in DC other than that one... That was the MLK ice storm, right? I remember missing that one in SC. Had friends in mont county in hotels for weeks because they had no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 in Jan 1999 at one point we had 0.50" of rain in an hour with a temp of 28. I don't think we are going to see that.. surface should be similar to that event....that was a great event even here in DC. I wasn't here for 1994, but 1999 was the only event I remember where DC proper was basically a skating rink....like you couldn't walk. I haven't experienced an event like that in DC other than that one... I lost power in that one for 5 days, that was the last good ice storm here and one of the best in the 38 years i have been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That was the MLK ice storm, right? I remember missing that one in SC. Had friends in mont county in hotels for weeks because they had no power. The 94 ice storm was epic. Sleet for hours. I worked so much that week due to temps freezing everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That was the MLK ice storm, right? I remember missing that one in SC. Had friends in mont county in hotels for weeks because they had no power. It was a THU/FRI......we were in the mid to upper 30s on Friday so it mostly melted, but in the favored areas it was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 in Jan 1999 at one point we had 0.50" of rain in an hour with a temp of 28. I don't think we are going to see that.. surface should be similar to that event....that was a great event even here in DC. I wasn't here for 1994, but 1999 was the only event I remember where DC proper was basically a skating rink....like you couldn't walk. I haven't experienced an event like that in DC other than that one...But how much of that .50 ran off? How did that compare to other hours? I just don't think we can assume .70 as ZR equals .70 freezing rain accum. .5+ is going to be a problem if/where it happens I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 He basically has 2-4" snow plus .25-.50" ice where i live, seems highly unlikely. I guess the 2" plus .25" are a possibility but not the higher end of either. Depends if Ice means sleet or Freezing Rain. DT should probably distinguish between the two since sleet does not cause power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 '94 was not fun. Due to the inconsistency of the models, this one is a wait and see, pretty much like every. storm we have had the last few years. I will go hug the NAM in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I remember 1994 being pretty bad. We had off of school for about 2 weeks and every side road was a sheet of ice for a couple weeks also. The best part was actually getting to play ice hockey on the basketball court instead of our normal street hockey on rollerblades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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