snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'd ride the Euro and not jump off the cliff yet but the nam worries me because we usually get screwed in these kinds of situations and warm air often comes in aloft quicker than forecast by the mdoeslso dc climo may be on its side. If the NAM is right, it is a crippling storm for some folks...even impactful for us....but I know you and I both want our front end inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yes, the later onset is definitely concerning, and it is definitely ISW criteria for 95 corridor westward because it takes away the snow window but also it makes for one hell of a freezing rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 the nam 4k might be even more putrid.. toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm sure the parallel nam spikes the ball though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 the nam 4k might be even more putrid.. toss it It looks like ISW criteria into the metros as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z NAM finally admits LYH will be below freezing Monday, 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 the nam 4k might be even more putrid.. toss it lol...just saw it....0.0" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It looks like ISW criteria into the metros as well hopefully because it gives us like a dusting of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 12z NAM has your 750mb temps at +3 by 21z The 18z has the just above 0c at that time. That does pose a question that you can probably answer. At what level does precip originate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 lol...just saw it....0.0" of snow it's the nam but definitely a sinking gut feeling last 30 min heh. i want my 1" of snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If the NAM is right, it is a crippling storm for some folks...even impactful for us....but I know you and I both want our front end inch... we do, without it we get a way more ice and Sterling will need and ice storm warning. This entire storm has been a no win situation in terms of forecasting even with the models being in pretty good basic agree as even the runs with snow get the warm layer to like 0.4C while we're snowing so any small difference changes the ptype. I don't agree with Bob about this being a step in the right direction unless he's wanting power outages. I hate lake cutters with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 we do, without it we get a way more ice and Sterling will need and ice storm warning. This entire storm has been a no win situation in terms of forecasting even with the models being in pretty good basic agree as even the runs with snow get the warm layer to like 0.4C while we're snowing so any small difference changes the ptype. I don't agree with Bob about this being a step in the right direction unless he's wanting power outages. I hate lake cutters with CAD. I like ice, but I am in an apt building in DC so I can understand why folks hate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I like ice, but I am in an apt building in DC so I can understand why folks hate it I have a single house with a lonnngg driveway, not looking forward to ice, hopefully I get some snow and have the ice lay on that, would be better to remove it that way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 the EURO is the money model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 4km NAM has pretty much all of Metro DC AOB freezing through 04Z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The NAM for OKV is 2 hours of snow, 4 hours of sleet. The rest ZR. Ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I have a single house with a lonnngg driveway, not looking forward to ice, hopefully I get some snow and have the ice lay on that, would be better to remove it that way lol I would not be expecting much ice at your location, your climo is basically the same as mine and I doubt we get much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 WWA issued south of Fredericksburg and into the eastern shore of MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I would not be expecting much ice at your location, your climo is basically the same as mine and I doubt we get much ice. agreed, I live in a water front home so, im thinking the bay may screw me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The Tuesday Winterymix inch is still in play, although only virga at hour 69, which is 57 hours out in front of the NAM wheelhouse. edit: flurries to an inch at hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I feel like there's some extremely knowledgeable people in this forum and I am just curious as to why Blacksburg would throwout an entire winter storm warning that blankets the whole afd when an ice storm is in the cards. Are we not reaching ice storm criteria or? It would seem as though an ice storm would maybe grab the public's attention more. Idk just my two cents but I figured maybe someone would have some insight or knowledge that I am not aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Pretty chilly today and the sun is wimpy. I think whatever falls will stick OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I honestly can't remember the last time we had an icing event that was more than just a nuisance..meaning more than your windshield or door icing up or just pretty tree limbs and a crusty newspaper....I'm talking high impact...it just doesn't seem like it happens although I'm sure it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I honestly can't remember the last time we had an icing event that was more than just a nuisance..meaning more than your windshield or door icing up or just pretty tree limbs and a crusty newspaper....I'm talking high impact...it just doesn't seem like it happens although I'm sure it has 1994 sported a lifetime of horribleness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 WWA issued south of Fredericksburg and into the eastern shore of MD I guess they are waiting for the GFS to make a decision on the remaining watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It normally happens at 27 degrees rather than 31. I guess the issue with this NAM run is it gives us more ZR and sleet up front when surface temps are coldest. If suburban areas are 27-28 tomorrow with sleet and ZR I bet there will be ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I feel like there's some extremely knowledgeable people in this forum and I am just curious as to why Blacksburg would throwout an entire winter storm warning that blankets the whole afd when an ice storm is in the cards. Are we not reaching ice storm criteria or? It would seem as though an ice storm would maybe grab the public's attention more. Idk just my two cents but I figured maybe someone would have some insight or knowledge that I am not aware of. I think it's showing their uncertainty on precip. types. They throw out a WSW to cover snow/sleet/freezing rain or whatever may fall. They may upgrade it to a ISW once they feel more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I guess they are waiting for the GFS to make a decision on the remaining watch area. LWX is waiting... Wakefield already issued their WSWarnings and WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I honestly can't remember the last time we had an icing event that was more than just a nuisance..meaning more than your windshield or door icing up or just pretty tree limbs and a crusty newspaper....I'm talking high impact...it just doesn't seem like it happens although I'm sure it has Were you living here in 2007 or 1999? The Valentine's sleet storm in 2007 we had out in the western suburbs was a major ice storm in SE MD-- more than 100,000 power outages. 1/14-15/99 was the area's largest power outage until Isabel. Yeah, high impact like that is rare, but it does occasionally happen. This looks more like the ones we get once every other winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Garrett and Tucker WWA... 0.1 to 0.25 of ice and 1 to 3 of snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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