snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Don't know about dc but they are much wetter overnight Sunday than they are for the daylight hours out here. Pretty bad timing on the precip all around. Less snow and more ice for whatever reason we are in a better spot than you all this event...though with your temp advantage you could do ok...plus I dont know that we should commit to the progged precip maxima yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Don't know about dc but they are much wetter overnight Sunday than they are for the daylight hours out here. Pretty bad timing on the precip all around. Less snow and more ice Some may find the ice more exciting. As of the am, no ice was forecast by NWS. Not sure which station I heard it on. I just got in now, so I was wondering why you would say something in an event like this when all p-types are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 our sfc high is parked over mn/ia border..1042mb WELL IT HAS ALOT OF GROUND TO COVER IN NEXT 24 HRS LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 for whatever reason we are in a better spot than you all this event...though with your temp advantage you could do ok...plus I dont know that we should commit to the progged precip maxima yet Yeah, you never know about modeled precip bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah, you never know about modeled precip bands. modeled precip bands are never spot on lol always overdone or under done, all models have problems with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Some may find the ice more exciting. As of the am, no ice was forecast by NWS. Not sure which station I heard it on. I just got in now, so I was wondering why you would say something in an event like this when all p-types are on the table. Well to each his own I guess, but I don't find the prospect of no electricity and seeing trees I have cared for since they were waist high mangled and broken to be very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 for whatever reason we are in a better spot than you all this event...though with your temp advantage you could do ok...plus I dont know that we should commit to the progged precip maxima yet Has Ji jumped yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 42/32 torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 for whatever reason we are in a better spot than you all this event...though with your temp advantage you could do ok...plus I dont know that we should commit to the progged precip maxima yet Yeah. We have a temp advantage. But it looks like the majority of the precip should stay SE of us. The SREFS keep the surface temps below freezing through 3Z from about Leesburg and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM, no precip thru 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looks like a large batch of sleet getting ready to move in per 18z NAM at 21 hrs and 850 line in C VA already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well to each his own I guess, but I don't find the prospect of no electricity and seeing trees I have cared for since they were waist high mangled and broken to be very exciting. Well, I won't have to worry about my overgrown rhododendrons. This should do the trick if we get a decent amount of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Precip barely in by 18z. Seems a bit different this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well to each his own I guess, but I don't find the prospect of no electricity and seeing trees I have cared for since they were waist high mangled and broken to be very exciting. Agreed. I'll take the snow. You all can have the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM says get your generators out for my area and western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Certainly wetter early for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The NAM is icy for the cities this run, very variable run to run that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I def hope that is sleet at 21z across the area... if that is freezing rain then we have a really big problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 sleet 3:1?..we could get some heavy sleet for a bit. i'm not sure how much zr we will get before we dry up a bit around 3-4pm? but we could tack on up to 0.5" of sleet on of of snow..probably more like 0.3" Is that the ratio of sleet? I dunno. Sounds about right. I haven't looked all that close post changeover. Once it's not snow it's all the same to me.. though I guess we should root for sleet to pad our snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The NAM is icy for the cities this run, very variable run to run that is for sure. I guess looking at small moves with features like the 850 line makes it seem very variable but I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The NAM drops at least 0.8" of ZR down here. Would get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I def hope that is sleet at 21z across the area... if that is freezing rain then we have a really big problem I'm chilling in my bunker so I'm all good. NAM looks OK to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z NAM 0.5 to 0.6 QPF for DCA through 00z... 0.4 to 0.5 QPF for IAD and MRB... 0.7 for EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I guess looking at small moves with features like the 850 line makes it seem very variable but I was thinking the same thing. I think from this point we will be threading the needle with these models, with it on top of us I don't see the models telling us a whole lot more then they have, more of a now cast now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z NAM 0.5 to 0.6 QPF for DCA through 00z... 0.4 to 0.5 QPF for IAD and MRB... 0.7 for EZF hmm wonder how much of that is after it turns to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 lolnam...completely different run to run....i guess I just don't know how to use it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 hmm wonder how much of that is after it turns to rain There is a ton of freezing rain and sleet it looks like on this run. It actually brings a lot of ice even to your town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 There is very little front end snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Biggest change seems to be for those way NW in first part. That area had been drying up now it's in the center of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looks torchy upstairs.. throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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