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Winter storm 12/8-9 model discussion part II


Ji

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Just looking at radar from 0Z versus now the characteristics are still of an enhanced arctric front more that even a weak organized low pressure. Usually I do not get behind the freezing rain but this time I think we will have it BUT I think if the synoptics remain the same the onset of freezing rain/sleet versus snow will be delayed.

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Matt, front wave is definitely wetter overall. Max precip stripe running e-w between woodbridge and fredericksburg. The exact location is still up in the air but if it were to verify further north...

 

it gets more precip further north with intitial wave...Wetter for everyone I think...still lots to be worked out with precip..amounts...where it sets up etc...I think the rest we have a pretty good handle on

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it gets more precip further north with intitial wave...Wetter for everyone I think...still lots to be worked out with precip..amounts...where it sets up etc...I think the rest we have a pretty good handle on

 

yes, the proverbial bullseye won't be known until gametime or during the game. It's a pretty decent sized swath of .5 precip with mostly snow for some. Good run imo. 

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Matt, front wave is definitely wetter overall. Max precip stripe running e-w between woodbridge and fredericksburg. The exact location is still up in the air but if it were to verify further north...

It likes my house though my changeover is done after about .20 or so and then I'm sleet and ice. 

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It likes my house though my changeover is done after about .20 or so and then I'm sleet and ice. 

 

Snowmaps love your house. 6"..woot!

 

But your right. Changeover after an inch or 2 verbatim. Still a great run at this stage. Somebody to the west is going to get a decent winter shot it appears. Maybe 4-5" in usual suspect land?

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Snowmaps love your house. 6"..woot!

 

But your right. Changeover after an inch or 2 verbatim. Still a great run at this stage. Somebody to the west is going to get a decent winter shot it appears. Maybe 4-5" in usual suspect land?

 

snowmap I have has Wes right around 3", but I don't know how well these maps do with  700mb-850mb, plus they are based on 10:1 ratios

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That stops the bleeding until happy hour.

 

Good to hear no major shifts one way or another.  Looks like there's more than reasonable consistency lately on the main details, but of course the minor "devil" details on exact precip amounts, changeover timing, etc. are subject to flux.

 

We can hope the 18Z GFS speakeasy is open for business again!  At least in terms of the 2nd wave on Tuesday.

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why not dca?  quicker changeover?

 

Tougher there given temps, but the euro argues for them to be included. Just a first guess anyways...you guys may do better there ironically than up here. Forcing is much better down there. Someone may bet 2-4 if the euro is right west of that line from IAD-BWI.

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