Scuddz Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can someone please summarize the 12z GFS analysis since the thread got deleted? Pretty much the same as every other run the past few days. an inch or two of snow, then sleet/freezing rain, then washed away by rain early Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just looking at radar from 0Z versus now the characteristics are still of an enhanced arctric front more that even a weak organized low pressure. Usually I do not get behind the freezing rain but this time I think we will have it BUT I think if the synoptics remain the same the onset of freezing rain/sleet versus snow will be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pretty much the same as every other run the past few days. an inch or two of snow, then sleet/freezing rain, then washed away by rain early Monday Joy...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is wetter....a "tad" warmer in the mid levels....same at surface as 0z...a better run than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is wetter....a "tad" warmer in the mid levels....same at surface...a better run than last night That stops the bleeding until happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is wetter....a "tad" warmer in the mid levels....same at surface...a better run than last night thank you, may I have another (on Mon/Tues) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That stops the bleeding until happy hour. for your backyard it is a much better run than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is significantly wetter in western KY leasing in. Noteworthy. ETA: I meant eastern KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 for your backyard it is a much better run than last night I'm liking your guess from yesterday now. 1", then sleet/zr, then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 for your backyard it is a much better run than last night Can Ji face his audience again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm liking your guess from yesterday now. 1", then sleet/zr, then rain it isn't necessarily a marked difference from 0z, except for BWI area where it is sig better And I never made a guess yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can Ji face his audience again? for your backyard prob better but same idea...It is basically the same idea as last night...only big change is for I-95 corridor through Baltimore where it is def wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Matt, front wave is definitely wetter overall. Max precip stripe running e-w between woodbridge and fredericksburg. The exact location is still up in the air but if it were to verify further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Matt, front wave is definitely wetter overall. Max precip stripe running e-w between woodbridge and fredericksburg. The exact location is still up in the air but if it were to verify further north... it gets more precip further north with intitial wave...Wetter for everyone I think...still lots to be worked out with precip..amounts...where it sets up etc...I think the rest we have a pretty good handle on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 it gets more precip further north with intitial wave...Wetter for everyone I think...still lots to be worked out with precip..amounts...where it sets up etc...I think the rest we have a pretty good handle on yes, the proverbial bullseye won't be known until gametime or during the game. It's a pretty decent sized swath of .5 precip with mostly snow for some. Good run imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Matt, front wave is definitely wetter overall. Max precip stripe running e-w between woodbridge and fredericksburg. The exact location is still up in the air but if it were to verify further north... It likes my house though my changeover is done after about .20 or so and then I'm sleet and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1-3 for IAD-BWI and points NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 it isn't necessarily a marked difference from 0z, except for BWI area where it is sig better And I never made a guess yesterday I meant in text, not public..i threw around my guess and you replied. no big deal. it's good to see the euro holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1-3 for IAD-BWI and points NW? With lollies up to 12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1-3 for IAD-BWI and points NW?Make your call! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41883-dec-8-9-storm-contest/#entry2513538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1-3 for IAD-BWI and points NW? based on 12z euro run verbatim?...2-3" for IAD/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1-3 for IAD-BWI and points NW? why not dca? quicker changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It likes my house though my changeover is done after about .20 or so and then I'm sleet and ice. Snowmaps love your house. 6"..woot! But your right. Changeover after an inch or 2 verbatim. Still a great run at this stage. Somebody to the west is going to get a decent winter shot it appears. Maybe 4-5" in usual suspect land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Snowmaps love your house. 6"..woot! But your right. Changeover after an inch or 2 verbatim. Still a great run at this stage. Somebody to the west is going to get a decent winter shot it appears. Maybe 4-5" in usual suspect land? snowmap I have has Wes right around 3", but I don't know how well these maps do with 700mb-850mb, plus they are based on 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 for DC, when would should we expect the onset of the precip to start on sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why not dca? quicker changeover? Wunderground is 3"+ at DCA & IAD maps skip a panel but I'm sure BWI is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That stops the bleeding until happy hour. Good to hear no major shifts one way or another. Looks like there's more than reasonable consistency lately on the main details, but of course the minor "devil" details on exact precip amounts, changeover timing, etc. are subject to flux. We can hope the 18Z GFS speakeasy is open for business again! At least in terms of the 2nd wave on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 any word on possible Mon/Tues wave on Euro? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wunderground is 3"+ at DCA & IAD maps skip a panel but I'm sure BWI is similar According to Will and Scott, the Wunderground maps are not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 why not dca? quicker changeover? Tougher there given temps, but the euro argues for them to be included. Just a first guess anyways...you guys may do better there ironically than up here. Forcing is much better down there. Someone may bet 2-4 if the euro is right west of that line from IAD-BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.