snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Surface temps about the same as previous Euro runs? colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Right over Wes' house? I think posting that is no no. For me the trouble is I'm minus 2 at 850 at 18Z with 0.1 and then well above freezing by 00Z. I'd have a nice ice storm for the power lines and tree limbs but temps marginal enough that if it were precipitating that intensely it might not acrete that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 All the models today have really reduced the QPF for OKV-MRB-HGR corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to weenie for a sec...much different setup...but the models had us flipping on 2/25/07 and it never happened. and I just looked at the NARR and we were at 0 at 800mb at 10am and it was snowing and ripping an hour later...makes me think with the thump between 16z-20z we have a chance to stay mostly snow in that window....and it is likely most of the 0.4" we get by 00z falls in that window. at least 75%. I am def more bullish on snow for immediate DC metro, and would probably give us a 70% chance of an inch and a 35% chance of 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0.1th for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0.1th for me? no..more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hope so.... I would like a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is in fact a narrow swath of snow that must hit us almost perfectly and there is precious little in way of radar returns for something that is to begin in <24 hours. It's presumed much more energy will develop, I beleive in that idea, but is worth noting right now there really is nothing going on. the models don't show much precip now. actually looks pretty much as advertised. this looks like one of those events where you want to watch the tennessee valley overnight to see precip start breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hard to say what happens exactly between 2am and 8am. .5 precip area wide for the most part. Freezing line running east of 95 at 2am but out near HGR by 8am. How much of that .5 falls as zr near the cities? Maybe half? HGR-OKV definitely looking at some good icing overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to weenie for a sec...much different setup...but the models had us flipping on 2/25/07 and it never happened. and I just looked at the NARR and we were at 0 at 800mb at 10am and it was snowing and ripping an hour later...makes me think with the thump between 16z-20z we have a chance to stay mostly snow in that window....and it is likely most of the 0.4" we get by 00z falls in that window. at least 75%. I am def more bullish on snow for immediate DC metro, and would probably give us a 70% chance of an inch and a 35% chance of 2" I think those probabilities are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hard to say what happens exactly between 2am and 8am. .5 precip area wide for the most part. Freezing line running east of 95 at 2am but out near HGR by 8am. How much of that .5 falls as zr near the cities? Maybe half? HGR-OKV definitely looking at some good icing overnight. even the warmer GFS has DCA at 32.8 and IAD at 31.2 at 6z.....those temps might be realistic....30-31 in the favored areas...perhaps lingering overnight and 32-33 in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think those probabilities are pretty good. Ellinwood is a pretty accurate forecaster...I like his map for me and you. Don't know about to the west as I don't pay as much attention to out there http://madusweather.com/2013/12/winter-storm-threat-dec-8-9-final-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sterling getting a little excited too... https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.BaltimoreWashington.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm planning on going to the Mall tomorrow. My standards have been vastly lowered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Rudin going 1-2" possible before changeover to sleet https://twitter.com/SteveRudinABC7/status/409395132350230528/photo/1 Channel 7 met on ABC if you dont know who he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What a mess for you guys. IAD should be a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What a mess for you guys. IAD should be a treat. I live off 7 and 28 in sterling,. What do you guys think will happen there..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I live off 7 and 28 in sterling,. What do you guys think will happen there..? Should be mostly rain there after a brief burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Should be mostly rain there after a brief burst of snow. If I were to try my hand at forecasting off the hi res models I don't think id be too excited or concerned out here. They show just light precip for the most part. I guess just a little ice can be a pain. Are those models considered good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro has dc pretty much below freezing from Wed night - Tue morning. No way that verifies imo but it definitely looks cold. Potomac is going to look wintry. Might be cold enough to freeze tidal basin completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 15z SREFs (sorry mitch) show DC right on 0.5 QPF line for 24 hr QPF, which is through 00z MON (7pm SUN)... it looks like all precip through then is frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Hard to say what happens exactly between 2am and 8am. .5 precip area wide for the most part. Freezing line running east of 95 at 2am but out near HGR by 8am. How much of that .5 falls as zr near the cities? Maybe half? HGR-OKV definitely looking at some good icing overnight. Really sharp cutoff just to the north of Winchester. Right where I live. I almost hope it stays south at this point. I dont want the big ice. An inch of snow would be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro has dc pretty much below freezing from Wed night - Tue morning. No way that verifies imo but it definitely looks cold. Potomac is going to look wintry. Might be cold enough to freeze tidal basin completely. Raw numbers from the models have been consistently running too cold in recent weeks from any range IMO though I haven't looked so perhaps it's cold enough to be cold regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 15z SREFs (sorry mitch) show DC right on 0.5 QPF line for 24 hr QPF, which is through 00z MON (7pm SUN)... it looks like all precip through then is frozen they are super wet..identical to GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Really sharp cutoff just to the north of Winchester. Right where I live. I almost hope it stays south at this point. I dont want the big ice. An inch of snow would be nice though. It could stay south. We will know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 they are super wet I dont think you can tell how much is snow and how much is sleet/frz rain outside of the plumes though... but it does look pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Raw numbers from the models have been consistently running too cold in recent weeks from any range IMO though I haven't looked so perhaps it's cold enough to be cold regardless. sleet 3:1?..we could get some heavy sleet for a bit. i'm not sure how much zr we will get before we dry up a bit around 3-4pm? but we could tack on up to 0.5" of sleet on of of snow..probably more like 0.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 sleet 3:1?..we could get some heavy sleet for a bit. i'm not sure how much zr we will get before we dry up a bit around 3-4pm? but we could tack on up to 0.5" of sleet on of of snow..probably more like 0.3" Not sure if the column is entirely saturated... but maybe -FZDZ during the lulls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 they are super wet..identical to GEFS Don't know about dc but they are much wetter overnight Sunday than they are for the daylight hours out here. Pretty bad timing on the precip all around. Less snow and more ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 our sfc high is parked over mn/ia border..1042mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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