cpasi Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Do you guys kind of feel this is going to bust and dud out, cause it sure has that feeling...Even topper shut said..little or no accumulation..and the freezing rain won't be a big issue on the roads, just wet roads because the ground is warm..? what are you guys thoughts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Do you guys kind of feel this is going to bust and dud out, cause it sure has that feeling...Even topper shut said..little or no accumulation..and the freezing rain won't be a big issue on the roads, just wet roads because the ground is warm..? what are you guys thoughts.. I'm not being a smartass by saying this. All those answers are in the last 2 pages. Everything has been dissected quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 at DCA GFS has 850 temps of -0.9 and 800 temps of -0.4 at 18z and 0.13" has fallen, so it is borrowed time after that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 LWX: "...MAY BE ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES W/ THE AFTN PCKG. CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WRNG LVL ICING/OR COMBO OF P-TYPES IS QUSTNBL ATTM." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 LWX: "...MAY BE ISSUING SOME ADVISORIES W/ THE AFTN PCKG. CONFIDENCE OF REACHING WRNG LVL ICING/OR COMBO OF P-TYPES IS QUSTNBL ATTM." Not a surprise for immediate DC metro at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting note. Much of the past runs have had the northern areas clearing out today and temps reaching the mid-40's. Currently it's cloudy and in the middle 30's. That makes the potential surface wet-bulb tomorrow much lower for the start of the event. Yeah sun was out earlier but it's clouded up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 what does that mean? Quicker saturation I believe Yes the surface would saturate very slightly faster if DP stayed the same but if your talking about virga, that heavily determined by dew points above the surface and not so much by the surface temp. However, this was not the point I was going after. The point that I was going after is that in these CAD situations (especially at night) temps don't vary much from where the temp first was when the precip. started. Beyond that there is gradual warming due to advection and enthalpy of fusion in freezing rain (water gives off heat when it changes from liquid to solid). So in this way, if your starting temp is lower, you have more time to go until you reach 32 degrees. In these situations, 2 degrees lower start temps could mean an extra hour of ground frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's torching down here. We're probably ending up higher than guidance given 11a temps. 39.4 at noon here. Petty much right on for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 39.4 at noon here. Petty much right on for me. DCA was 45 at 11 but went down at non to 44. MOS was in the 40-45 range locally so if there's not much movement it will end up on target. I'm not personally sure how much it matters anyway as considerably lower dewpoints push in through the day and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 radar looking awfully dry for an event set to begin in 18 hours or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS simulated visible satellite for overnight, Ian's torchy heat should be gone by 06z tommorow. However only partial clearing is indicated, better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting note. Much of the past runs have had the northern areas clearing out today and temps reaching the mid-40's. Currently it's cloudy and in the middle 30's. That makes the potential surface wet-bulb tomorrow much lower for the start of the event. I am cloudy, have been most of the morning, hanging tough at 36. Cold won't be the issue for this area, rates will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gosh, I love GREarth. HRRR and GFS has got a good hold on the temp situation it looks like. HRRR has the temps that are in the 30's stay in the 30's. Essentially the high temps in the next hour or so will be the high temps. Edit: RAP too. NAM is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 radar looking awfully dry for an event set to begin in 18 hours or so... As modeled...things really dont get going til overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 As modeled...things really dont get going til overnight Yeah, let's hold off on the "this storm is a bust" till then. It looks better to be wrong a few hours out vs almost a day anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 radar looking awfully dry for an event set to begin in 18 hours or so... radar is dry for now, but you can see the energy streaming in from texas already http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is in fact a narrow swath of snow that must hit us almost perfectly and there is precious little in way of radar returns for something that is to begin in <24 hours. It's presumed much more energy will develop, I beleive in that idea, but is worth noting right now there really is nothing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is in fact a narrow swath of snow that must hit us almost perfectly and there is precious little in way of radar returns for something that is to begin in <24 hours. It's presumed much more energy will develop, I beleive in that idea, but is worth noting right now there really is nothing going on. Check out the water vapor loop. I'd attach it but I don't know how Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro should keep us happy. Slight improvement from last night with initial wave. Broader expanse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 euro is better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro should keep us happy. Slight improvement from last night with initial wave. Broader expanse. Thats good to hear.... and I see Matt says its better as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's wetter on the northern extent and a bit faster bringing precip in. In an improvement with the snow part and it's a darn small window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 euro is better... I'm going to stop staying up for 0z euro...it's sort of like a better mans version of the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It was also pretty dry down in the south right before their big ice storm too a few days ago. I remember being a bit surprised. Plus the models are dry too for this time period, then it juices up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's wetter on the northern extent and a bit faster bringing precip in. In an improvement with the snow part and it's a darn small window. 0.40" qpf by 0z....all frozen...I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 EC is driest model my area but it's below 32 at 7am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0.40" qpf by 0z....all frozen...I'll take it Nice. I am gathering half snow and half sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0.40" qpf by 0z....all frozen...I'll take it Yea, it's really a good run imo. Max stripe is much broader and max has shifted maybe 10-15 miles north. Really like it. Lock it up please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yea, it's really a good run imo. Max stripe is much broader and max has shifted maybe 10-15 miles north. Really like it. Lock it up please. Surface temps about the same as previous Euro runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looks like the sfc temps are below freezing across the area from DC west at 06Z but then warms by 12Z when the next batch of heavy precip moves in. I think that batch of heavy precip is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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