Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 For the icy wave of the storm, the GFS really warms up surface temps quickly this run. Hr 42 is the example. It's a little suspect imo. At least with the distribution of temps. Cold pocket in Nova? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18/21 soundings near DC GFS_12_030_38.94;-76.98.gif GFS_12_033_38.94;-76.98.gif pretty consistent with what we have seen for runs now...that we flip around 19z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I don't get above 32 till like 15Z this run and .50"+ qpf as ZR. Welp i'm screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's a little suspect imo. At least with the distribution of temps. Cold pocket in Nova? gfs42hrtemps.JPG Yea Bob not too sure on that one, would think the GFS is running a little warm and even the cities should see a little bit of ice. Not much has changed from other runs that makes this that much warmer at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to favor what Will said the other day about the GFS being the worst model with CAD, it retreats the 0c line NW quickly this run. I don't think the cold air will retreat as quickly as the gfs shows, not with that stong of a high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 pretty consistent with what we have seen for runs now...that we flip around 19z.. yup, definitely. now just to pray we get solid precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yea Bob not too sure on that one, would think the GFS is running a little warm and even the cities should see a little bit of ice. Not much has changed from other runs that makes this that much warmer at the surface. The big flag to me is areas like the FDK valley being the warmest. I'd place a big bet against that with negative odds. Not to mention colder S warmer N at that timestamp. We're not just talking a few degrees either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The big flag to me is areas like the FDK valley being the warmest. I'd place a big bet against that with negative odds. Not to mention colder S warmer N at that timestamp. We're not just talking a few degrees either. I'm a little more bullish on snow than I was 24 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The big flag to me is areas like the FDK valley being the warmest. I'd place a big bet against that with negative odds. Not to mention colder S warmer N at that timestamp. We're not just talking a few degrees either. You're right on that also, the difference is around 3-5 degrees, which is quite suspect to say the very least. The FDK valley is a primed CAD locale for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I went 0.7" at dca in the contest...I'd probably go a bit higher if I was guessing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Once again, the NAM starts the initial slug of snow sooner by 3 hours and now both NAM and GFS bring the Balto/DC corridor above freezing after sunset Sunday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm a little more bullish on snow than I was 24 hours ago... I am too. Only because things kinda juice up over wv/eastern ky. Could be hot and heavy as the band moves in. It really has become a nowcast event. the heaviest stripe of snow will be about as wide as the diameter of the beltway it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I am too. Only because things kinda juice up over wv/eastern ky. Could be hot and heavy as the band moves in. It really has become a nowcast event. the heaviest stripe of snow will be about as wide as the diameter of the beltway it seems. Def agree... this could be like one of those lake effect bands... where if you get in them you could see 2-3... if you are outside it you are struggling to get an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm a little more bullish on snow than I was 24 hours ago... I'm a little more bullish on a tree falling through my house than I was 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The big flag to me is areas like the FDK valley being the warmest. I'd place a big bet against that with negative odds. Not to mention colder S warmer N at that timestamp. We're not just talking a few degrees either. Bob, I agree. I could see me warming pretty quickly but out in the valleys and out west, it still should be cold and I'd go with the Euro or a euro NAM mix as I think the latter sometimes runs cold. Matt, I'm also a little more bullish, I'd bump the probability of an inch up a tad from yesterday though I think the basic ideas are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Didnt see this posted in the last three pages from WPC Ice -- (40 percent line borders i-95 corridor) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM and GFS are both painting 1"-2" snow Balto/DC for Tuesday afternoon into the evening, the NAM a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM and GFS are both painting 1"-2" snow Balto/DC for Tuesday afternoon into the evening, the NAM a little more. big question is how much ice/sleet accumulates after snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I am too. Only because things kinda juice up over wv/eastern ky. Could be hot and heavy as the band moves in. It really has become a nowcast event. the heaviest stripe of snow will be about as wide as the diameter of the beltway it seems. Bob, I agree. I could see me warming pretty quickly but out in the valleys and out west, it still should be cold and I'd go with the Euro or a euro NAM mix as I think the latter sometimes runs cold. Matt, I'm also a little more bullish, I'd bump the probability of an inch up a tad from yesterday though I think the basic ideas are the same. where we stand now is the NAM gives me 3-4", GFS 2-3", and Euro 1-2"....I'd probably go 65% 1"+ for my backyard, 25%, 2"+.....but that is pending the 12z euro...It is somewhat evident most of the thump comes from 11-3....with the flip around 2pm....the euro is worst in terms of QPF during that window...maybe 0.2", but probably also the latest flip...I'd like to see how cold the gfs is numerically for DCA at 18z...should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FWIW, 12z RGEM also shows that if you can get in the band, you will be happy The image below is total snowfall accumulations for the next 48 hrs. There is a separate map for sleet accumulations and freezing rain accumulations, so I do not believe this map shows anything other than just snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FWIW, 12z RGEM also shows that if you can get in the band, you will be happy The image below is total snowfall accumulations for the next 48 hrs. There is a separate map for sleet accumulations and freezing rain accumulations, so I do not believe this map shows anything other than just snowfall. 12zRGEMsnowbandofdeathaccum.png It truly is a nowcast situation as to who will get in the band. Someone can max out around 3" of snow and sleet if the band is intense. The question is will it be DC area or more towards Howard Cty over to BWI. We always talk about the northern band that shows up, so its an interesting gametime point to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 yoda is right but his map may cause people a trip to the eye doctors. I'll help out even though I never talk about the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looks like the snowfall map from the February micro clipper. Will be interesting to track the snowband and hopefully the ice does not disrupt power for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting note. Much of the past runs have had the northern areas clearing out today and temps reaching the mid-40's. Currently it's cloudy and in the middle 30's. That makes the potential surface wet-bulb tomorrow much lower for the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting note. Much of the past runs have had the northern areas clearing out today and temps reaching the mid-40's. Currently it's cloudy and in the middle 30's. That makes the potential surface wet-bulb tomorrow much lower for the start of the event. Advect that cold air down my way-- ALL the way up to the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 yoda is right but his map may cause people a trip to the eye doctors. I'll help out even though I never talk about the rgem. rgem.JPG Yoda's map did strain the eyes, but what your map shows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting note. Much of the past runs have had the northern areas clearing out today and temps reaching the mid-40's. Currently it's cloudy and in the middle 30's. That makes the potential surface wet-bulb tomorrow much lower for the start of the event. what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting note. Much of the past runs have had the northern areas clearing out today and temps reaching the mid-40's. Currently it's cloudy and in the middle 30's. That makes the potential surface wet-bulb tomorrow much lower for the start of the event. It's torching down here. We're probably ending up higher than guidance given 11a temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Just south of DC scores nicely on RGEM. I'll take it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 what does that mean? Quicker saturation I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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