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Winter storm 12/8-9 model discussion part II


Ji

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I'm new to the area, so I will be happy with whatever falls.

 

 

That pretty much answered the question I was about to ask (what is considered major here). Judging from the dialogue here, this looks like a nice event for the area. Here I was thinking I wouldn't see anything at all when I moved  :P

I think .5" would qualify locally.. not sure about less. Less would still be a problem but I doubt you'd see mass huge outages and big feeder lines coming down and such.  We used to get a .5"+ ice storm almost every winter in CT and they never amounted to a whole lot of issues.  I do buy that trees down here are probably less ready for ice weight than places that get it regularly... tho we have had a number of tree pruning events in recent years across the entire region which may still help. 

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I think .5" would qualify locally.. not sure about less. Less would still be a problem but I doubt you'd see mass huge outages and big feeder lines coming down and such.  We used to get a .5"+ ice storm almost every winter in CT and they never amounted to a whole lot of issues.  I do buy that trees down here are probably less ready for ice weight than places that get it regularly... tho we have had a number of tree pruning events in recent years across the entire region which may still help. 

Having lived here all my life, unless temps are 30 or under, serious ice accretion is difficult... The last good ice storm I can remember was in Jan 1999

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1/14-1/15/99 was grandaddy freezing rain event for me. Some spots in Montgomery County had 0.75"+ freezing rain accum.; power out 1-3 days. Northern PG County widespread 0.5". This had been preceeded on 1/3/99 by a moderate freezing rain event where temperature went from 25* at midnight to 55 at 6am then back down to 40 by 9am, very windy 40+, torrential rains.

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Having lived here all my life, unless temps are 30 or under, serious ice accretion is difficult... The last good ice storm I can remember was in Jan 1999

I think this one will be pretty solid out west though I also assume those places get them more regularly.  On paper this looks like it could be the biggest for the region since I've lived here. Though honestly I don't recall ice storms all that much since they always are lame in the city.

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I actually can't remember personally experiencing a huge ice storm in CT. I lived in the wrong places. I always figured .5" was significant just about anywhere, but obviously more so the further south you go. At any rate, it'll be much easier to build that kind of accumulation outside DC proper.

My parents house was at almost 1400' so we got some good wx. I missed the biggest while at UConn.. Nov 2001? One November. It was like 1.25" and crippling. Plenty of .5-.75" ones. I used to go out driving in them. ;)

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Having lived here all my life, unless temps are 30 or under, serious ice accretion is difficult... The last good ice storm I can remember was in Jan 1999

Remember that one well.  Lost several 6 plus inch pine branches (which don't take much) at our place just outside the beltway in Spfld.  It was a disaster down around Richmond to Charlottesville where power was out for several days.  Power Co. called in mutual aid from as far away as New England.  For around here the rain stopped just before it got to the tipping point of being a calamity.  Was a spectacular sight when the sun came out that morning although the folks to the South hit hard were miserable. 

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I also doubt the ice will be an issue overall for the vast majority of the pop centers. Even .5 would only be a memorable event and not a damaging event. Major roads will be wet and slushy with temps in the upper 20's low 30's.

Might be a smart play to invest in companies that make arm casts though.

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I think the story will be the ZR locking in the sleet/snow glacier and making it really heavy on the trees, bushes, and possibly power lines. I don't see an ice rink scenario with cars sliding all over the place anywhere near the cities.

sleet is the most boring winter precip. I hate it. Id rather have Zr or snow. the ping just makes me pissed off because when i hear it, i know it stopped snowing. At least zr can make the landscape look pretty...

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sleet is the most boring winter precip. I hate it. Id rather have Zr or snow. the ping just makes me pissed off because when i hear it, i know it stopped snowing. At least zr can make the landscape look pretty...

In large amounts sleet is fun.

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sleet is the most boring winter precip. I hate it. Id rather have Zr or snow. the ping just makes me pissed off because when i hear it, i know it stopped snowing. At least zr can make the landscape look pretty...

Beggars can't be choosers. Plus it'll help our odds of having something to show for it when everything's done.

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Indeed. The smooth, dense, slippery glacier isn't something you see every year. It's a big part of what made 06-07 so interesting.

The VD storm was pretty cool even though we hated it at the time. Gotta be the highest impact event outside 09-10 since I've been here.

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We have the DC freezing rain discussion every winter. Salted major roads are almost never an issue, even during the 1994 ice storms or the 1/99 ice storm. Our worst freezing rain issues in this area: 1) 500,000 customers lose power (1/99); 2) Light freezing drizzle glaze causes numerous accidents and falls (day 1 of 1/99, many more examples); 3) Local drivers freak out when their windshields start icing up while driving (1/04, 1/94); 4) Sidewalks and driveways are thick with ice and Nikolai complains that school should have been canceled (1/94, 2/08).

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The VD storm was pretty cool even though we hated it at the time. Gotta be the highest impact event outside 09-10 since I've been here.

high impact all right.....I lost my power for 40 hours straight

the air in my frig when I opened the door was warmer than in my house, and I'm being honest

it was miserable

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high impact all right.....I lost my power for 40 hours straight

the air in my frig when I opened the door was warmer than in my house, and I'm being honest

it was miserable

 

I almost never lose power and not for long when I have, so here's to DTs bullseye verifying but shifted over us. 

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I almost never lose power and not for long when I have, so here's to DTs bullseye verifying but shifted over us. 

it had nothing to do with the storm

when the plumbers had replaced my pvc pipe (the stuff that use to deteriorate), they nicked the buried power line, or one leg of it, so I only had 110 volts into the house. None of the large appliances would work, including the furnace. The small space heaters kept flipping the breaker. Why it decided to finally fail 9 months later on the coldest day in many years was beyond me....it was buried 4.5' under the ground! BGE couldn't get to our house to repair it quick b/c all their crews were working on the storm related stuff.

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Yep, agree wholeheartedly.  But I didn't do what he implied which I think is important. I can mock the stats and still believe in them and all of it can have nothing to do with anyone who is responsible for the model.  He made a huge leap to try to make some sort of point but I'm not sure what it was. I'd have been happier if he just came out and said he thought I was dumb.

 

The problem with the models is they might perform awesome in one geographic area or a certain specialty and not so good in another.   We all know DTK is right about verification.  But we also know that for whatever reason, the 18z GFS is goofy in our backyard.  Doesn't mean everywhere. But for winter events in our backyard it is a funky run and has been for years.  It isn't fair of us.  Because we are judging a model on a discrete situation in a discrete area.  But we know what we have seen with our own eyes for years now.  As far as being too critical, I sure can be.  And other too.  But it isn't just weenies.  Private sector mets can be more vicious than we are.  Ask the 40N guys what they think of the GFS for nor'easters for SNE.  I think the models are absolutely amazing.  And I know I am being unfair when I have unreasonable expectations for  what models can do.  They have limitations.  I should know better.  But I go on a NAM rant every year.  Hopefully I got it out of my system.

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idk- I put the 42/48 panels side by side from 54/60 from 12z and the initial wave is less organized and lighter rates overall. It's a notable difference. The ip/zr after the lull is mostly the same but I guess I'm not as excited about that part.

If I saw the Euro I'd perhaps have issued a 6 SPI instead of a 7 but Tuesday saves us. ;)

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