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Winter storm 12/8-9 model discussion part II


Ji

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Is the UKMET still the second best model in the world based on 500mb projections?

 

Speaking of UKMET, what is that pile of crap saying about this storm? Windstorm into Lisbon?

Yoda should know. He loves all the third rate models. 

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They're just having fun. Cut em some slack

 

I wasn't even referencing any modeler.. not sure why ohleary feels the need to cause trouble.   I freely have said most people don't seem to know what those stats mean including myself.  As far as I can tell they show which models have the best 500mb verification across the NH.  As someone who is a data analyst by day I see a whole lot of problems with assuming that means much on a local scale at the surface.  But I am just a MA forum yokel.

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I wasn't even referencing any modeler.. not sure why ohleary feels the need to cause trouble.   I freely have said most people don't seem to know what those stats mean including myself.  As far as I can tell they show which models have the best 500mb verification across the NH.  As someone who is a data analyst by day I see a whole lot of problems with assuming that means much on a local scale at the surface.  But I am just a MA forum yokel.

even if anything was said, who cares?

red tags are not untouchables and people have a right to comment on wx related stuff as long as they don't get personal with any one person

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even if anything was said, who cares?

red tags are not untouchables and people have a right to comment on wx related stuff as long as they don't get personal with any one person

Yep, agree wholeheartedly.  But I didn't do what he implied which I think is important. I can mock the stats and still believe in them and all of it can have nothing to do with anyone who is responsible for the model.  He made a huge leap to try to make some sort of point but I'm not sure what it was. I'd have been happier if he just came out and said he thought I was dumb.

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Serious first call would be for us to get a nice 4 - 6 hour burst of snow...an inch, 1.5" if we're lucky...then some moderate sleet..prolly a 5 hour period..then zr until like 5am

1.5" in a 4-6 hr window ain't much of a burst. I'll say it now, if you get 4-6 hours of snow you'll have more than 1.5". Of course I hope you get more.

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Serious first call would be for us to get a nice 4 - 6 hour burst of snow...an inch, 1.5" if we're lucky...then some moderate sleet..prolly a 5 hour period..then zr until like 5am

 

I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues.

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I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues.

 

 

The .25-.35 ice can cause a whole bunch of real issues.

 

No doubt fellas.   I think there will be plenty of issues..but I'm still skepitcal of true ice storm conditions close to the city.   Where you guys are, yeah.

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The .25-.35 ice can cause a whole bunch of real issues.

It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75".  My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. 

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I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues.

we might get a bit more sleet than what we normally expect out of this type system, after the snow I'm talking, before the zr shows up

cold air in the lower levels is still drilling south even after the mid layers warm

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It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75".  My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. 

Yeah it's been a while. I'm probably forgetting some, but the last true ice storm that was pretty bad was some time in the late 90s. It was a good one for DC.

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It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75".  My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. 

Well it does actually depend on the type of tree you have in place Ian. Also, a factor to keep for the bigger instances is any previous wear and tear on the trees/ground. If there has been 1-2" rain beforehand, in a major ice storm, there is the chance trees can even be uprooted. Now that surely shouldn't happen here, however branches could be weighed down a bit easier. Waterlogged items equal a heavier weight as we all know. 

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It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75". My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north.

I don't think it will be a big problem near and inside the beltways but there is one extra factor in this specific case. If we do get and inch or 2 of snow and that gets encased in ice on trees and lines it could very well cause some damage and outages even near the cities. It's not going to be windy and also be below freezing during the snow portion so all surfaces except for main roads could get concreted.

If it sleets hard enough it could help knock things off powerlines before the zr sets in.

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