Fozz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If the NAM verifies (fat chance ) then many of us will easily have snow on the ground for the whole week if not longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 BWI/DCA break the 32 degree mark around 14z, but by then precip is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Man NAM would keep DCA around 31.5 for nearly 8 hours after transition to zr. Talk about borderline. That's not cold enough for a true ice storm...you really need to be sub-30 for steady icing on more than just railings and bird baths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Impressive sounding for DCA Monday morning: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=723&sounding.y=305&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=00&fhour=63¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Impressive sounding for DCA Monday morning: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=723&sounding.y=305&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=00&fhour=63¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Yeah... That's some very cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah... That's some very cold rain... I thought it would be borderline freezing rain, but this is for ~10:00 A.M. after the sun is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I thought it would be borderline freezing rain, but this is for ~10:00 A.M. after the sun is up. precip is over by then anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Impressive sounding for DCA Monday morning: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=723&sounding.y=305&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=00&fhour=63¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false ANyone thinking of fog, looks like it sure would be to me. I'm with Matt, there will be a warm layer. I suspect it will be more agressive than on the GFS but that's a guess and I may be prejudiced based on the old versions that tended to have a slight cold bias near 850. Does anyone see Euro sounding in as much detail as the NAM or GFS sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 soundings in mby at 45 hrs; my guess is sleet in light of a 2000+ meter layer of sub-freezing air below warm layer, much of which is -5C mets agree...disagree? 1024. 51. -1.9 -2.7 53.8 3.8 1000. 243. -3.9 -4.0 60.1 6.2 975. 443. -4.8 -5.0 77.5 7.4 950. 647. -4.8 -5.0 94.9 5.9 925. 857. -5.3 -5.6 110.0 6.0 900. 1072. -5.3 -5.4 126.2 6.9 875. 1294. -3.8 -3.8 147.7 7.3 850. 1523. -2.8 -2.8 178.7 9.4 825. 1761. -0.8 -0.8 199.0 17.9 800. 2007. -0.2 -0.1 208.4 23.3 775. 2262. 1.1 1.2 223.4 24.1 750. 2526. 1.4 1.4 239.2 26.5 725. 2799. 0.7 0.6 248.2 30.4 700. 3081. -0.3 -0.3 251.9 34.1 650. 3672. -2.6 -2.8 252.8 37.9 600. 4303. -5.8 -6.3 252.9 39.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 soundings in mby at 45 hrs; my guess is sleet in light of a 2000+ meter layer of cold air below warm layer, much of which is -5C mets agree...disagree? 1024. 51. -1.9 -2.7 53.8 3.8 1000. 243. -3.9 -4.0 60.1 6.2 975. 443. -4.8 -5.0 77.5 7.4 950. 647. -4.8 -5.0 94.9 5.9 925. 857. -5.3 -5.6 110.0 6.0 900. 1072. -5.3 -5.4 126.2 6.9 875. 1294. -3.8 -3.8 147.7 7.3 850. 1523. -2.8 -2.8 178.7 9.4 825. 1761. -0.8 -0.8 199.0 17.9 800. 2007. -0.2 -0.1 208.4 23.3 775. 2262. 1.1 1.2 223.4 24.1 750. 2526. 1.4 1.4 239.2 26.5 725. 2799. 0.7 0.6 248.2 30.4 700. 3081. -0.3 -0.3 251.9 34.1 650. 3672. -2.6 -2.8 252.8 37.9 600. 4303. -5.8 -6.3 252.9 39.3 It's pretty doubtfull anything would still be liquid when the warm layer is above is above 850mb and 975mb is -5 C. Usually 900mb is warm in ZR periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM gives DCA 0.60 of sleet. Geeze, then a lot of frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM gives DCA 0.60 of sleet. Geeze, then a lot of frz rain. NNAM.jpg That snow is sticking around at least a week. Or till shortly after sunrise Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM gives DCA 0.60 of sleet. Geeze, then a lot of frz rain. NNAM.jpg pretty close to identical at BWI, but based on soundings, there's more snow than just .08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 BWI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM gives DCA 0.60 of sleet. Geeze, then a lot of frz rain. NNAM.jpg check out the words bolded in red above the graph http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=2013120700&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 check out the words bolded in red above the graph http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=2013120700&field=prec here's the temp link they refer to in the red, bolded print for BWI http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=2013120700&field=temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 While I was playing around with wundermap I found sounding profiles based on geography! When you are in a model click the small H/L symbol in the top right corner of the wundermap to plot skew-T's. The sounding even updates in real time as you move across the map, pretty neat tool. Shared images of the soundings are blocked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 BWI: Would be a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 check out the words bolded in red above the graph http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=2013120700&field=prec Thank you! Forgot about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gfs much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gfs much wetter Sleet sounding by 21z... so I am guessing 3-5 hrs of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gfs much wetter just gunna say it was thru 33 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sleet sounding by 21z... so I am guessing 3-5 hrs of snow Much wetter, looks nice. Let's see how long the cold lasts on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Much wetter, looks nice. Let's see how long the cold lasts on this run DCA is right at 32 at 09z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nice gfs run. 18z was the unusual dry outlier. Nam/gfs/euro blend = biggest widespread impact event in just under 3 years. If/when my yard gets a full honest inch, I'm waking outside, spiking my football as hard as I can, walking back inside and getting drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Thats a ridiculous sounding at 18z MON... 950 +9/+10c surface +3c at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Don't slip on the ice topping. That will be on top of the 2nd or 3rd inch and a pile of ball bearings. I will be safely locked into my NFL chair next to the window. No matter which way I look I will be enjoying the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 IF the NAM profiles can actually pull one out this time around, there is the possibility that an ice storm can actually occur in the metros, at least when it comes to accumulating on power lines and/or trees. Something to keep an eye on, nice improvements for the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Did we break the GFS on the NCEP site? Anyone else stuck on hr 45? Edit-Nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Another day, another legitimate excuse to toss the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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