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Winter storm 12/8-9 model discussion part II


Ji

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it's a little less org. at 36 hrs vs. last run or so it seems

 

It's a pretty good run for you...me so-so...I don't think there is much that will delay our flip time...so it is a matter of overcoming dry air...we aren't getting a time extension

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There's been concern for ice in Virginia with this system. If its mostly ice then I am happy that models are shifting the moisture axis well north. Northern Virginia does not need ice.

 

EDIT - I love Eric Horst's map too. He has the ice well west of eastern Prince William. :)

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Really? The precip just starts then. lol

 

It isn't uncommon for the flip to coincide with the heavier rates...hopefully we can sneak in an hour of decent snow and before that at least get a base...hoping for an inch here

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Really? The precip just starts then. lol

750mb warm nose really interests me, because models like the euro don't really have a warm nose during the "thump" period. All things considered, I find the NAM to be a good run for MTN BWI FDK HGR areas for a decent front end shot. If the warm nose looks to be a real factor still on tomorrow nights runs, expect there to be some heavy pinging going on. 

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Our weather god (Eric Horst) up here in the Lancaster/York area just issued his first call map. He's been doing the weather in the area for 30+ years after receiving his met degree. He also happens to be my boss. :)

 

latest2.jpg

Our weather god (Eric Horst) up here in the Lancaster/York area just issued his first call map. He's been doing the weather in the area for 30+ years after receiving his met degree. He also happens to be my boss. :)

 

latest2.jpg

Looks very reasonable.

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750mb warm nose really interests me, because models like the euro don't really have a warm nose during the "thump" period. All things considered, I find the NAM to be a good run for MTN BWI FDK HGR areas for a decent front end shot. If the warm nose looks to be a real factor still on tomorrow nights runs, expect there to be some heavy pinging going on. 

 

There is going to be a warm nose..it has shown up on every model run for days now....NOt sure where you get that there isn't one on euro?  There has to be

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Going to be hard to get a lot of ZR here if we are in a dry slot form 3z-15z utc Monday.   That's probably a good thing.   18z GFS was showing this also so it's not just the NAM. I'll wait for the 12z EURO tomorrow before drawing any conclusions.

 

 

Edit: Nam shows Dry slot from 23z to 6z, never mind still time for some Ice.

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give me sleet or rain

I feel the same way about zr I do about T-Storms, derechos, and hurricanes....send them all kindly to Yoda, that sick pup!

 

;)

 

DCA/BWI/IAD reach 32 around 12z MON.  24 hr QPF map shows .8 to 1.0 QPF frozen before changeover to rain... I would assume half is frz rain

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