Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I literally think he is forgetting to subtract the precipitation from today. lolIn most cases I don't think you get 100% ice accretion to begin with but if you add 8" of snow he's got a big area with like 2" liquid or so which seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is too funny. Really .75-1.5" of ice.... there is not even that much qpf... There was on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yoda: thoughts on 18z RGEM? Only goes to 48 but it gets precip in here at 48 (45 is probably virga?) with 2m in upper 20s and 850 line near Lorton/Woodbridge. 48 panel has 0.1 from DC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yoda: thoughts on 18z RGEM? Only goes to 48 but it gets precip in here at 48 (45 is probably virga?) with 2m in upper 20s and 850 line near Lorton/Woodbridge. 48 panel has 0.1 from DC south. Snow at 45 and 48 (with sleet) and icy at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not that I believe DT's forecast, but water expands when it freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Snow at 45 and 48 (with sleet) and icy at 54 Thanks. I thought RGEM only goes out to 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Thanks. I thought RGEM only goes out to 48? Around 5mm of snow it appears -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&type=SN&hi=036&hf=048〈=en&map=na On meteocentre there is a 54 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS is now calling for 1" snow/sleet tonight for Westminster. Currently at 38 degrees. Tonight: Rain. Snow and sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Kammerer dismissing ice threat for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NWS is now calling for 1" snow/sleet tonight for Westminster. Currently at 38 degrees. Tonight: Rain. Snow and sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Yep, they've now changed mine to snow/sleet as well. I posted the other day about tonight being an outside chance even if remote. I still think it remote. If anything I would think it might be freezing rain or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Kammerer dismissing ice threat for DC Doug also said Sandy wouldn't affect the east coast. Swear to god. You can check the archives! To his credit, that was a week in advance. I guess bold calls can blow up on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is too funny. Really .75-1.5" of ice.... there is not even that much qpf... I love DT's map. The mountains can have all the ice accretion they want. I get off scot free with probably only a glaze. Sometimes, there are advantages to living only 70 feet above mean sea level. Power outages and cold weather dont mix. I'll happily take my half inch of snow/sleet and glaze of ice changing to regular rain by late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Kammerer dismissing ice threat for DCWe don't get bad ice here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yep, they've now changed mine to snow/sleet as well. I posted the other day about tonight being an outside chance even if remote. I still think it remote. If anything I would think it might be freezing rain or sleet. It was showing up on the models earlier today. Is the forecast computer generated or are they done by a Met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It was showing up on the models earlier today. Is the forecast computer generated or are they done by a Met? No idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NWS is now calling for 1" snow/sleet tonight for Westminster. Currently at 38 degrees. Tonight: Rain. Snow and sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Same for Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 https://www.statecollege.com/college-ave-cam/ Snow in state college. I doubt they'll be any accumulation in Frederick. 30% chance it ends as sleet IMWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 We don't get bad ice here Nah, only like quarter inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FWIW, SREFS are fairly wet with the initial thump..around .30" for DC metro by 21z My eyeballing suggests the flip from snow happens from 2pm to 5pm southeast to NW...precip starts around 9am...so decent window for snow...which I think is probably pretty consistent with other guidance...a 4-7 hour snow window, with hopefully a thump before the changeover...intermittent very light snow doesn't extend our window...so places that don't get a thump inside the window, will probably get closer to an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 We don't get bad ice here we only get bad heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Wasn't it the NAM that first suggested that today would be a big rainer here? It's been impressive and still pouring. Maybe it's wetter forecast for Sunday plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Wasn't it the NAM that first suggested that today would be a big rainer here? It's been impressive and still pouring. Maybe it's wetter forecast for Sunday plays out. I don't think so. The GFS was pretty wet as was other guidance.. No one was paying much attention with the Sunday event the main deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 nam's gunna do it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 nam's gunna do it again Its cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yep moisture axis is shifted northwest again. Is this the Nam doing it's dirty work or is it something to seriously consider at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yep moisture axis is shifted northwest again. Is this the Nam doing it's dirty work or is it something to seriously consider at this point? look at the 33 hr sim rad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Our weather god (Eric Horst) up here in the Lancaster/York area just issued his first call map. He's been doing the weather in the area for 30+ years after receiving his met degree. He also happens to be my boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 it's a little less org. at 36 hrs vs. last run or so it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 it's a little less org. at 36 hrs vs. last run or so it seems It's looking pretty solid mitch, wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 look at the 33 hr sim rad Good lord at 33!! I was just looking at 2m temp/precip wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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